The Cubs season

Can't end soon enough. Ugh. I can't believe there are still 82 games to play.

Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (25-19) at Starlin Castro (21-24)

I don't know why, but for some reason I've always disliked the Dodgers. They've just always seemed kind of overrated to me in general. And boring. Anyway, depending on how you feel the Cubs will either keep their recent mini-tear going against the Dodgers, confirming their excellent BsR record, or they will collapse like the shitty team they are and it will trigger a fire sale. I'd be kind of happy with both. *shrug*. This part of the season just came earlier this year. At least we'll get to see Kershaw and the rejuvenated Billingsley in this series, and miss Cub kryptonite Hiroki Kuroda. This godforsaken heat wave should make this an exciting series.

LAD position players (wOBA, ZiPS RoS wOBA, CHONE defense projection)

• C Russel Martin, RHB (.330, .341, 0.0)


• 1b James Loney, LHB (.338, .352, 0.0)


• 2b Blake DeWitt, LHB (.271, .320, 0.9)


• ss Rafael Furcal, BHB (.369, .332, 2.7)
  


• 3b Casey Blake, RHB (.354, .330, 5.2)


• lf Manny Ramirez, RHB (.396, .411, -6.1)


• cf Matt Kemp, RHB (.356, .374, 1.0)


• rf Xavier Paul, LHB (.386, .308, -4.4)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, ZiPS RoS FIP)

• Clayton Kershaw, LHP (3.56, 4.21, 3.38)


• Chad Billingsley, RHP (3.51, 4.34, 3.41)


• Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (3.49, 3.55, 3.60)


• John Ely, RHP (1.83, 3.25, -)


• Ramon Ortiz, Holy shit, he's still pitching? (5.49, 4.92, 4.46)


• Jonathon Broxton, Holy shit (0.34, 1.43, 1.98)


• LAD Bullpen (4.03, 4.45)

2 things: The Cubs might be hitting the Dodgers at the right time, given their injury woes (Furcal, Ethier, Padilla). Too bad they won't get the chance to take some batting practice off Ramon Ortiz. The other thing that surprised me was how mediocre their total bullpen numbers were despite Broxton's absolutely obscene numbers this year.

Injuries

Furcal is set to be activated from the DL tomorrow, but I would be surprised if he played in all three games. He was supposed to be activated ~2 weeks ago but his date had to be pushed back, which is never a great sign. Ethier broke one of his fingers a week or so ago and will miss this series. Vincente Padilla is on the DL with nerve irritation in his elbow (never a good sign) and is expected to return sometime in June. Reliever Cory Wade (i.e. Scott Proctor 2.0) is on the 60-day DL following shoulder surgery in spring training. And the mighty Brad Ausmus is also on the 60-day following surgery to remove 15,682 catching innings from his back.

As for the Cubs, Caridad is on the DL with an elbow injury. Ramirez is expected to sit a few games to allow his bruised thumb to heal and work on his timing with Jaramillo. Gorz's x-rays were negative on the hand that was struck by a line drive last week, but the off-day today means it's not a big deal - they'll probably just move everyone up a day before they decide where to slot in Z.

Players to watch

Starlin Castro owns this spot until any of Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson, Brett Jackson, or Josh Vitters get a call-up. For the Dodgers, it's Broxton. He's putting up cartoon numbers, and the projections agree that they're no joke. Wasn't he rumored to be part of one of the many Rich Hill deals floating around a few years ago?

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday Clayton Kershaw, LHP (3.56, 4.21, 3.38) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (4.08, 3.88, 3.78), 7:05 PM CT

Kershaw and Billingsley are both good pitchers, but as you can see they have had a bit of luck this year on HRs. Kershaw has only had one horrendous outing all season - he was touched up for 7 runs in only 1.1 innings by the Brewers at the beginning of May. He's posting an ungodly 10+ K/9, but his control (never his strong suit) has been especially terrible this season, as he has walked 5.26 batters per 9 innings, though it's been a bit more under control in his last few starts. All those walks and the inevitable HR regression (he's a slight FB pitcher) is not a good combination. Speaking of regression, Demp has pitched well this year but has posted a .252 BABIP. His numbers are due for a rise as well.

Wednesday Chad Billingsley, RHP (3.51, 4.34, 3.41) vs Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.78, 3.57, 3.89), 7:05 PM CT

I guess you should ignore what I said above about moving everyone up, since Gorz is penciled in as the Wed starter on Cubs.com. That injury was on his pitching hand so hopefully it doesn't mess with his stuff. *insert yet more praise for the theft of Gorz from PIT for two guys who had torn labrums this year*. Billingsley's numbers look a lot better than Kershaw's - he still strikes out a ton of guys but has much 'better' (relatively speaking) control. He's also more of a groundball guy so he's not quite as burned by the HR ball either, though he has had some luck there as well.

Thursday John Ely, RHP (1.83, 3.25, -) vs Ted Lilly, LHP (4.53, 4.83, 4.04), 1:20 PM CT

At least Lilly is pitching on the coolest day of the series. Still though, it could be hot, humid, and raining baseballs on Waveland Ave. At least his control seems to have improved. Ely came out of nowhere (he doesn't even have a projection) and has pitched like Lou Pineilla's wet dream in his MLB debut - it took him 90 batters to issue his first career walk. He was a 2007 draftee by the White Sox out of college, and was one of their top prospects when he came to the Dodgers in the Juan Pierre trade. That was some great work by Colletti.

Series Preview: Starlin Castro (19-23) at Elvis Andrus (23-18)

The Cubs head to Texas to face the Rangers, who were generally considered to be the best team in the AL west, and have lived up to their preseason projections so far. Here's their lineup and pitching staff

Hitters (wOBA, ZiPS RoS wOBA, CHONE UZR projection)

• C Matt Treanor, RHB (.251, .279, -1.3)
  


• 1B Justin Smoak, BHB (.291, -, -)
  


• 2B Ian Kinsler, RHB (.385, .377, 3.7)
  


• SS Elvis Andrus, RHB (.366, .338, 0)
  


• 3B Michael Young, RHB (.351, .354, 0)
  


• LF Josh Hamilton, LHB (.373, .368, 0.8)
  


• CF Julio Borbon, LHB (.240, .310, 13.3)
  


• RF Nelson Cruz, RHB (.445, .383, 4.5)
  

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, ZiPS RoS FIP)

• Scott Feldman, RHP (4.49, 5.09, 4.77)


• Rich Harden, RHP (5.75, 5.76, 4.04)


• C.J. Wilson, LHP (3.53, 4.25, 3.69)


• Colby Lewis, RHP (3.66, 3.99, 4.10)


• Derek Holland, LHP (4.42, 3.93, 4.90)


• Neftali Feliz, holy shit (2.86, 3.50, 3.99)


• Darren Oliver, LHP (2.90, 2.44, 3.53)


• Frank Francisco, RHP (3.94, 4.25, 3.77)

It seems strange that Traenor is their catcher, given the shitton of talent I seemed to remember at the catcher position there. Maybe the mlb.com depth chart is off its rocker. Aside from their erstwhile ace (Feldman), the Rangers have a damned good pitching staff. Just look at all that young talent. This is what the 2013 Cubs should look like before Hendry and Ricketts fuck it up by trading their young talent for the Joe Blantons of the world.

Injuries

Caridad was moved back to the DL (sucking), and Gorz is not expected to make a trip after taking a liner off his hand. He might miss a start, but the Cubs should be able to skip his turn in the rotation with the off-day on Monday. The Rangers have a bunch of guys on the DL whose names I don't recognize, so I figure they're not very important (dying laughing) ST can correct me tomorrow if I'm wrong.

Players to watch

The easy choice is Castro and Andrus, two young and talented SS who broke into the big leagues at a very young age. They've both got great careers ahead of them.

Pitching Probables

Friday Ted Lilly, LHP (4.77, 4.70, 4.03) vs Colby Lewis, RHP (3.66, 3.99, 4.10), 7:05 PM CT

Several of the projection systems had a tough time with Lewis, as he had a shitty early career from 2002-2007, never posting a FIP below 5. He went over to Japan for the next two seasons and pitched out of his mind before returning to the team he started with. So far, his 2010 has looked a lot closer to his Japan years than his earlier MLB ones. The biggest difference is his strikeout rate, which hovered near the mid 6's before Japan but have been over 9 K/9 so far this season. He still walks a fair amount of batters though (3.68 BB/9 this year). Lilly has unsuprisingly been burned by the It could be an ugly game with Lilly pitching at the Launching Pad in Arlington, but hopefully it won't be too warm tomorrow night. Hopefully he strings together a few good starts and the Cubs move him for some more prospects.

Saturday Randy Wells, RHP (2.97, 3.47, 4.08) vs Derek Holland, LHP (4.42, 3.93, 4.90), 7:05 PM CT

Looking at those numbers for Wells really makes me shake my head at the bullpen talk. However, I'd probably keep him on my list of guys the Cubs should hang on to in the event of a fire sale. This is only his second season in the bigs (I don't think his 5.1 innings in 2008 count) so he should still be around in 2012 and 2013. If you look at Holland's strikeouts and walks, his numbers look great, but not surprisingly, given his home ballpark, he's had big problems with HRs. Here's hoping the right-leaning lineup pounds him.

Sunday Fail Whale, RHP (4.21, 4.12, 4.37) vs C.J. Wilson, LHP (3.53, 4.25, 3.69)

I'm not exactly sure what to make of C.J. Wilson's projections, as he was a reliever for pretty much all of his mlb career until this season, and that 3.69 FIP is still largely projecting him as one. He had an insane season last year, posting a 10.26 K/9 in 73.2 innings. He's pretty wild too, though not quite Marmol-esque. So far he's managed to keep things relatively under control as a starter. Silva had yet another decent start in his last outing, scattering 6 hits and giving up 2 runs, and most importantly inducing 11 grounders to only 7 liners/flyballs. It could get ugly to see the Rangers teeing off in him in that park though.

Mini Series Preview: Colorado Rockies (19-18) at Starlin Castro (16-22)

This is only a 2-game series so I'll make this preview brief. Here are the Cubs and Rockies team numbers, with their NL rank in parentheses

Stat	Rockies	Cubs
wOBA	.337 (6th)	.341 (4th)
UZR	-3.3 (11th)	-0.6 (8th)
Starter FIP	4.05 (8th)	3.73 (4th)
Starter xFIP	4.17 (8th)	3.81 (4th)
Relief FIP	3.50 (3rd)	4.23 (12th)
Relief xFIP	4.42 (14th)	4.34 (11th)

Wow - I don't think I've ever seen as big of a FIP-xFIP split as the Rockies bullpen. They've been incredibly lucky with the HR ball, even more so considering where they play half their games. They've had decent luck on balls in play too, with a .283 BABIP in that cavern of a ballpark (contrast with the Cubs' pen's .335 BABIP)

Pitching matchups

Monday: Aaron Cook, RHP (4.58, 4.87, 4.37) vs Randy Wells, RHP (3.02, 3.66, 4.18), 7:05 PM CT
Cook is a groundball machine, guys who FIP tends to undervalue. He's pitched incredibly poorly this season, and from the looks of it a big part of it is his non-sinker fastball. It's tough to tell from Fangraphs' pitch value chart, since they combine all fastballs into one category, but he's seen a 10 to 15 run per 100 pitches drop in effectiveness. His secondary pitches have never been special either. He's still getting plenty of GB so it's probably his 4-seamer. Wells has done a great job at keeping up his stellar K rate, posting a full 2 K/9 higher than his breakout year last season, while walking even less batters and allowing fewer HRs. His bloated 4.57 ERA is pretty much entirely a factor of his .348 BABIP. I'm a broken record on this, but great work by Wells and Rothschild for avoiding the sophomore slump so far.

Tuesday: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (3.54, 3.60, 4.65) vs Fail Whale, RHP (4.18, 4.26, 4.35), 7:05 pm CT
Who is this Chacin guy? I was never high on the Rockies rotation except for, of course, Ubaldo Jimenez. I saw the guy pitch in person last year and even from the upper deck I could tell how electric his stuff is. It's too bad the Cubs aren't facing him in this series, because I'd love to see it. I was surprised to see that he threw a no-hitter though. His stuff is as electric as Z's once was (with even MORE velocity) but he has an even bigger tendency to throw too many pitches early in the game. But I digress - I'm supposed to be writing about Chacin (dying laughing). He filled in for Jorge De La Rosa after he went down with a hand injury a few weeks ago and has pitched quite well despite the lousy projection. He gets a decent number of strikeouts and groundballs (a good fit for Coors) and has good projectability - he should be a #3 starter at worst going forward. Maybe not this year though. Silva, meanwhile, is on a roll, and is 4-0 despite throwing three straight starts that are much mroe typical of what we should expect from him - a total line of 16.1 IP, 25 hits, 11 runs, 11 strikeouts, 6 walks (more than I expected), 28:20 GB/FB ratio.

Series Preview: Pittsburgh Pirates (14-20) at Chicago Cubs (15-20)

The Cubs were swept by the Pirates in their last meeting, and they're facing two of the same three pitchers from that series. The Pirates still aren't a good team.

Batters (wOBA, ZiPS RoS wOBA, UZR)

1. C Ryan Doumit, BHB (.344, .345, -4.0)
2. 1B Jeff Clement, LHB (.224, .339, 0.9)
3. 2B Akinori Iwamura, LHB (.243, .324, -8.2)
4. SS Ronny Cedeno, LOL (.283, .300, 4.7)
5. 3B Andy Laroche, RHB (.337, .335, 0.6)
6. LF Lastings Milledge, RHB (.279, .318, -3.8)
7. CF Andrew McCutcheon, RHB (.380, .357, -1.0)


8. RF Garrett Jones, LHB (.339, .360, 0.9)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, RoS FIP)

1. Zach Duke, LHP (5.34, 4.74, 4.30)
2. Paul Maholm, LHP (5.26, 5.05, 4.10)
3. Charlie Morton, RHP (5.51, 4.00, 3.99)
4. Ross Ohlendorf, RHP (5.98, 6.81, 4.67)
5. Brian Burres, LHP (4.52, 5.73, 4.47)
6. Octavio Dotel, RHP (5.11, 4.23, 4.11)
7. Joel Hanrahan, RHP (3.98, 3.09, 3.54)
8. Javier Lopez, LHP (4.55, 4.87, 4.63)

Not exactly world-beaters. At least the Cubs don't have to face Charlie Morton this time.

For what little it's worth, I was one of the last people to admit that Ronny Cedeno sucked at baseball, defending him for a long time after it was obvious that Theriot was a much better player than he was. I guess he's just another one of those guys whose minor league numbers never translated. I wonder if his forgettable 2006 season hurt his development.

Injuries
Cedeno has a bruised wrist from a HBP on Monday, but should be okay. Ryan Church also has a bruised wrist and missed the last 5 games. Brendan Donnelly is helping the Pirates pen by not pitching, currently on the DL with an oblique strain. Chris Jakubasukas is still out following a scary liner to the back of his head off the bat of Lance Berkman. And former Cub trade pieces Kevin Hart and Jose Ascanio are both recovering from torn labrum surgeries. For the Cubs, Theriot is day to day with right hamstring stiffness. Grabow had a cortisone shot in his knee and has been available for the past 3 games, but hasn't pitched.

Players to watch Gotta go with Ohlendorf and Burres. They're the two worst pitchers on the Pirates staff, so of course they'll pitch back-to-back one hitters. For the Cubs, Starlin Castro has this spot as long as he's in the bigs. He's pretty much my main reason to tune in these days.

Pitching matchups
Friday Brian Burres, LHP (4.52, 5.73, 4.47) vs Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.72, 3.34, 3.98), 1:20 PM CT
I was cautiously optimistic about Gorzelanny going into the season, expecting him to put up average-ish numbers. What I was not expecting was for him to strike out over a batter per inning. His K rate will drop as the season goes on, but I'm inclined to believe the improvment is for real. Gotta tip your cap to Larry Rothschild. Here's hoping the Cubs move him at the deadline for someone good. Burres blanked the Cubs for 7 innings in his last start, despite giving up a large number of fly balls (which never left the yard) and walking three batters. Hopefully the Cubs batted ball luck turns around in this start.

Saturday Paul Maholm, LHP (5.26, 5.05, 4.10) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (3.83, 3.61, 3.69), 12:05 PM CT
Maholm also gave up a ton of contact in his last start vs the Cubs, though his luck manifested itself differently. He allowed a ton of baserunners (11 in 6 innings) without missing bats (only 1 strikeout) but only gave up 2 runs. 2010 Cubs baseball - feel the excitement! Demp had his 37th wasted quality start of the season in his game vs the Pirates, giving up 3 runs while striking out 7 in a wasted 7 innings of work.

Sunday Ross Ohlendorf, RHP (5.98, 6.81, 4.67) vs Ted Lilly, LHP (5.21, 4.38, 4.01), 1:20 PM CT
Ted hasn't looked quite the same since coming back, though this is still basically spring training for him. His fastball is only averaging around 85, and while it seems like he hasn't had great control with his pitches, I was surprised to see that he's only walked 4 batters this year. Still he's not fooling many batters (only 4.88 K/9) and they're making decent contact off of him. Maybe it's time for the Cubs to move Jay Jackson and Cashner into the rotation so they can further shore up the bullpen with Lilly and Dempster. Ohlendorf made his first start back from an injury last week in Cincy, and pitched an uninspiring 4 innings, walking 4 and striking out 3. He's a fly-ball pitcher who has not surprisingly been bit by the home run ball often in his career. If the wind's blowing out Sunday's game might be a long one.

Series Preview (and a Castro-inspired trip down memory lane) Marlins (14-17) at Cubs (14-18)

Since I've pretty much given up on this season already, I (mostly) enjoyed this series. We were talking about it in the comments a few days ago, but Friday's game was the most exciting Cubs game any of us could remember going back to 2008. Honestly I can't pull out a specific game memory out of any of the 2009 games, but I can list off four great ones from 2008 that were just as memorable:

Sep 20, 2008: Cubs 5 - 4 Cardinals . The greatest Cubs team any of us will see in our lifetimes capped off a fantastic season at home over their biggest rivals. Of course, they were also nice enough to do it in the one game I attended all year (dying laughing)

Sep 18, 2008: Cubs 7 - 6 Brewers, 12 innings. The Cubs were down by 4 runs and facing Brewers closer Salomon Torres. With 2 outs the Cubs rallied to score 4 runs, including a game-tying 3-run HR by Geovany Soto. The Cubs went on to win it in extras on a Derrek Lee walkoff single

July 28, 2008: Cubs 11 - 4 Brewers. The Cubs went into a big 4-game series at Miller park tied with the surging Brewers. The Brewers sent Sabathia to the mound in the first game, who had been mowing down the National league since being traded to the Crew. The Cubs eked out a win in this game, and went on to utterly embarrass the Brewers in their own park, outscoring them 31-11 in the 4 games.

And, of course Sep 14, 2008: Cubs 5 - 0 Astros.

After all that I'm too lazy to write much of a preview (dying laughing)

The Marlins have a pretty crummy offense (.318 wOBA), but then again so do many teams at this point in the season. It's strange that their two best hitters (Ramirez and Uggla) are their middle infielders. Go figure.

They're below average on the field as well, as their defense has cost them roughly half a win thus far. As per usual though, their pitching staff has put up a respectable 3.92 FIP, and it's not all smoke and mirrors as their xFIP is 4.14. I guess it's not that surprising given the pitchers' park they play half their games in.

Matchups

Monday Nate Robertson, LHP (5.55, 5.59, 4.56) vs Ted Lilly, LHP (5.44, 4.06, 4.06), 7:05 PM CT

Robertson is a guy that I wished the Cubs had gone after when they were shopping Milton Bradley. The Tigers pretty much dumped him on the Marlins, paying all of his salary minus the league minimum. For some reason I thought he was right-handed. I thought that the transition to the National League would have helped him (he moved from one pitchers' park to another one), but so far not so much. Lilly just had one of those games in his last outing. It's still spring training for him, and he's a flyball guy. He had a few blowout losses in April last year too. I'm not too worried. One nice thing about Lilly is that he tends to (or at least seems to, I'm being lazy today) give up runs in bunches, so overall he's more helpful to a team than a guy like Silva who you can pretty much count on for 6 innings and 3-4 runs every time. Lilly either gets hammered or shuts them down.

Tuesday Ricky Nolasco, LHP (4.37, 3.90, 3.63) vs Randy Wells, RHP (2.60, 3.44, 4.09) , 7:05 PM CT

Speaking of Cubs pitchers getting hammered, Wells was hit hard in his last start. Though seeing how it didn't make a dent in his FIP numbers some of it was bad luck - his BABIP skyrocketed to .383....but that's right in line with the ridiculous 25.5% LD rate he's posted so far. Nolasco turned in a great 2009 despite his 5+ ERA. He struck out more than a batter an inning, walked 2.14 per nine and had a reasonable HR rate of 1.12 HR/9. He had some bad babip luck (.336), and presumably some bad defense behind him too. Maybe the Cubs could trade Lee for him and move him to the bullpen?

Wednesday Chris Volstad, RHP (4.25, 4.42, 4.47) vs Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.71, 3.34, 3.93), 1:20 PM CT

I seem to remember Volstad shutting down the Cubs in their first look at him last year. But my memory is usually pretty faulty. He doesn't strike out very many, but gets a fair number of ground balls. Expect a WAG-fest. Gorzelanny is the 2009 Randy Wells of this season - he just can't get any run support. Huge props to the Cubs for landing him for two guys who are on the DL with torn labrums. Even bigger props to the Cubs and Rothschild in particular for jacking up that K rate - he's struck out more than a batter an inning ever since he joined the team. That was a real steal by Hendry.

I'm out of the prediction game, but I do like the fact that the Cubs face two lefties. Go Castro Go!

Castro to the Bigs

The Cubs called up Starlin Castro today, and I'm a little giddy. I think he's going to be pretty good and do think it is the right move. I'm going to list the reasons why and then my reservations

Why it's a good move

1. He's tearing up AA, posting a .423 wOBA (as a SS, no less), and hit well in the AFL against the top pitchers in the minors


2. Theriot is moving to 2b, and while I admit that the defensive metrics think he's okay at SS, everyone agrees he's a plus 2b. Either way as far as defensive value goes it's a lateral move. Moving Aramis Ramirez to SS would be offset by the fact that you'd have his bat playing at SS. Though I guess that's not true of last-month-Ramirez.


3. More importantly, Bakenot has been seriously underperforming at 2b. Fontenot has posted a .299 wOBA and while he hasn't looked quite as shitty at the plate to me (seemingly less WAGs), he's only had 3 extra basae hits and no homers. Jeff Baker has posted a .287 wOBA but for the opposite reason - he's hitting for power (1 double, 1 triple, 2 HRs) but he has to get his bat on the ball first. In his defense though he has a .200 BABIP. Not so much for Fontenot (.323). And since Fontenot is the strong side of the platoon anyway that's doubly bad. Tracy was send down in the move but I would not be surprised to see Fontenot moved by the trade deadline if Castro sticks around. The Cubs would have 3 2b, and Theriot and Baker are the better options to back up SS and 3b, respectively

The bad

1. Lou Pineilla is an impatient guy (witness Felix Pie). I'm worried the Cubs don't give him a long enough shot, though at least he has plenty of options, unlike Pie did. It's important he gets off to a good start. Lou did really seem to like him in ST though, so that should help.


2. Along the same lines, the scouting reports I remember on Castro were that he was still pretty raw, though Total Zone seems to like him. I'm worried that an impatient Lou will move him over to 2b and Theriot back to SS, and inertia will set in.


3. His AA stats this year are still a small sample size, FWIW. He still has room for improvement, and this move starts his service clock.


4. The Cubs could be expecting the red-hot Castro to turn the team around, and that's a lot of pressure for a young player

Overall though I still think this is a positive move, and a key point I haven't heard many people mention yet is that Castro still has TONS of options. It's not like they're rushing a guy who was supposed to get a cup of coffee with the team for the next 3-4 years before making the bigs. He earned this promotion.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (13-16) at Cincinnati Reds (14-14)

I guess I'm out of the predictions game.

The Reds are coming off a series win against the Mets. Everyone was writing them off after the first few weeks of the season, but now they're suddenly at .500. They're certainly not doing it with their offense (.313 team wOBA). Their starting pitching is a below-average 4.49 FIP. Their bullpens is pretty good (3.90 FIP, 3.74 xFIP - 2nd best in the NL). Their defense is also below average (-2.3 UZR). So maybe this is a bit of a mirage, though many of the projectatrons did like them in the offseason.

Batters

1. C Ramon Hernandez, RHB (.327, .319, -0.7)
2. 1B Joey Votto, LHB (.404, .383, 0.0)
3. 2B Brandon Phillips, RHB (.326, .342, -3.0)
4. SS Orlando Cabrera, RHB (.297, .325, -14.4)
5. 3B Scott Rolen, RHB (.362, .352, 5.6)
6. LF Jonny Gomes, RHB (.264, .338, -9.9)
7. CF Drew Stubbs, RHB (.265, .292, 16.4)
8. Jay Bruce, LHB (.340, .336, 0.0)

Pitchers

1. Aaron Harang, RHP (5.06, 3.82, 4.13)
2. Mike Leake, RHP (3.96, 4.37, -)
3. Johnny Cueto, RHP (4.50, 4.49, 4.23)
4. Bronson Arroyo, RHP (4.38, 4.71, 4.46)
5. Homer Bailey, RHP (4.59, 4.59, 4.33)
6. Francisco Cordero, RHP (4.11, 4.36, 3.48)
7. Arthur Rhodes, LHP (2.73, 2.55, 3.31)
8. Nick Masset, RHP (4.36, 2.55, 3.83)

I said this last time the Cubs played the Reds, but I'm still kind of surprised the projection systems liked this team so much. Also, that defense looks pretty atrocious. One thing the Reds do have going for them is their pen (as mentioned above). It's probably the only quality pen in the NL central.

Injuries
Chris Dickerdoodle is on the DL with a broken bone in his hand and will be out until June. Edinson Volquez's Rookie of the Year campaign was halted by his PED 'suspension' earlier this year - he's not missing time he would have missed but he is losing out on a fair chunk of salary. Drew Stubbs has come down with a slight case of sucking. Hopefully it will meet its mate in Aramis Ramirez and they'll run away together.

Players to watch
That Joey Votto guy is pretty good at hitting. So is Soriano, who is still white-hot.

Pitching matchups
Friday: Carlos Silva, RHP (4.17, 4.12, 4.39) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (4.59, 4.59, 4.33), 6:10 PM CT
Silva was hit hard in his last start, and a big part of it was the home-run ball. His sinker must not have been working as well for him, since he gave up more fly balls than grounders for the first time this year. Bailey has been struggling with his control this year (4.13 BB/9), though control is not what he's known for. He threw 122 pitches in his last start, and has topped 100 in every start this year. Maybe we can hope he'll be a little gassed.

Saturday: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.69, 3.70, 3.96) vs Aaron Harang, RHP (5.06, 3.82, 4.13), 6:10 PM CT
Harang has a terrible ERA, mainly due to a unlucky .353 BABIP and HR/FB rate pushing 20%. However, he has improved on his already admirable walk rate, walking less than 2 batters per nine. There were rumors floating around that they could pull a Zambrano on him, moving him to the pen, which is especially dumb because he IS the best starter on the team and they have a good pen. It was probably just interweb speculation.

Gorz had a great outing in his last start, racking up a career high in strikeouts and finally getting some run support. He looks like a whole new pitcher this year. Even when he had his breakout season with Pittsburgh in 2007, he only struck out 6 batters per nine (his peripherals were actually pretty bad that year - 4.88 xFIP). This year he's been striking out nearly a batter an inning. He's had a but of luck with home runs, but things are looking pretty good, even if you ignore the fact that both the players the Cubs traded to get him (Hart and Ascanio) are currently recovering from torn labrums. Great work, Larry Rothschild.

Sunday Ryan Dempster, RHP (3.75, 3.51, 3.68) vs Cy Leake, RHP (3.96, 4.37, -), 12:10 PM CT
Demp has his 157th wasted quality start of the season on tuesday. He's been pounding the strike zone, dropping his walk rate even lower than his 2.93 BB/9 from last year (which is waaay lower than I expected). This will probably be another 3-2 game where Leake allows 14 baserunners in 5 innings but only gives up 2 runs, just like the last start. He walked 7 in 6 2/3 innings in his major league debut against the Cubs but only gave up one run. He walked 5 in his next start, but in the 3 starts following those he seems to have gotten over his jitters, only walking 4 in those starts combined.

PredictionAfter the last series, I'm not going to make one. Though I guess I was right that a sweep was inevitable.

Series Preview: Washinton Natinals (10-9) at Chicago Cubs (9-10)

The Cubs prepared for their upcoming series with the over-.500 Natinals by taking three days off to do nothing but take batting practice. Even Aramis Ramirez looks like he's starting to break out of his slump, getting some good contact in the last BP session.

The Cubs somehow managed to pull a winning record out of that road trip, and the big reason is still starting pitching. I mentioned this in my last preview, but wanted to extend the numbers. Here are the ERs (and IP) given up by Cubs starters since the beginning of the Astros facepalm-inducing series

0, (7.0), 2 (3.0), 1 (7.2), 1 (6.0) 2 (6.0), 1 (6.0), 2 (5.2) 1 (7.2), 0 (6.0), 2 (7.0)

That's an ERA of 1.74, folks. The Cubs starting pitching is pretty good.

As far as the Natinals go, it's pretty similar to last year. Their offense is surprisingly good (5th in the NL), the starters are appallingly bad (second worst FIP and xFIP in all of MLB), and they play decent defense, led by the underrated Nyjer Morgan. Their second best player, Ryan Zimmerman, is banged up and likely won't be able to play in all three games (he missed the last series except for a pinch-hit appearance). Their best player is of course pitching for Harrisburg.

Position players (wOBA, CHONE wOBA, CHONE UZR)

1. C Pudge Rodriguez, RHB (.449, .290, 2.3)
2. 1b Adam Dunn, LHB (.363, .378, -4.0)
3. 2b Cristian Guzman, BHB (.306, .316, 0.0)
4. SS Ian Desmond, RHB (.331, .324, -18.6)
5. 3b Ryan Zimmerman (.445, .379, 0.0)
6. LF Josh Willingham, RHB (.468, .361, -0.9)
7. CF Nyjer Morgan, LHB (.363, .321, 10.3)
8. RF Willie Harris, LHB (.329, .328, 2.6)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. John Lannan, LHP (5.50, 5.28, 4.74)
2. Craig Stammen, RHP (4.28, 3.66, 4.96)
3. Zombie Livan Hernandez, RHP (4.22, 4.96, 4.83)
4. Scott Olsen, LHP (6.40, 4.08, 5.12)
5. Luis Atilano, RHP (3.68, 5.27, -)
6. Matt Capps, RHP (3.69, 4.68, 3.82)
7. Brian Bruney, RHP (6.37, 6.61,4.35)
8. Tyler Clippard, RHP (1.69, 3.29, 4.20)

A lot of these guys are really tearing the cover off the ball, especially Pudge and Willingham. Laughably Riggleman has been batting Cristian Guzman, arguably the worst batter on the team, in the 3-spot while Zimmerman was out.

Injuries
The Natinals have quite a laundry list of injured players. Ryan Zimmerman has been having hamstring issues. Pudge has a sore back. RF Willie Harris had an MRI on his sore knee yesterday which came back okay, but he's expected to miss Monday's game at least. Catcher Jesus Flores had offseason shoulder and elbow surgery and still has not begun throwing. Cubs Legend Jason Marquis (the greatest fifth starter ever) is on the DL with floating bodies in his throwing elbow. Starter Garret Mock is on the DL with a spine injury with no timetable for return. The Natinals also have Chien-Ming Wang and future star Jordan Zimmerman on the 60-day DL recovering from arm surgeries.

The only injury out there for the Cubs is Caridad, who has been throwing in Arizona. According to this Bruce Miles report, Caridad could be reactivated after this homestand.

Players to watch
As mentioned above, Rodrigo Ramirez seems to have started squaring up the ball again. Hopefully the upcoming Natinals pitchers will keep the Cubs bats hot and build even more confidence. For the Natinals, I hope Adam Dunn strikes out 12 times and commits 4-5 errors at 1b, to ram a stake into the 'Cubs should have signed Dunn' partisans that will inevitably turn up the volume of their whinging in this series.

Pitching Probables
Monday: John Lannan, LHP (5.50, 5.28, 4.74) vs Carlos Silva, RHP (3.06, 4.03, 4.67), 7:05 PM CT
Lannan, the Natinals erstwile ace, 'kept his team in the game' in his last start, and admitted that his off-speed pitchers were not working for him. He has been pretty unlucky though, with a .350 BABIP. The Fail Whale, meanwhile, has posted a ridiculous .178 BABIP so far, so that's going to go up. He's also seen a jump in his K-rate and big drop in his BB-rate. Obviously none of these are sustainable. It will be interesting to see where his numbers level off.

Tuesday: Zombie Livan Hernandez, RHP (4.22, 4.96, 4.83) vs Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.14, 3.42, 4.43), 7:10 PM CT
I was about to complain about how Hernandez has pitched so late into his career and was surprised to find that he's only 35. It seems like he's been around forever. Something must have happened to him in 2006 (injury?), because after cranking out 7 years with FIPs more or less in the high 3's, his FIP jumped by about a run. His main problem is that his strikeout rate has gone waaaay down from earlier in his career, and he's posted an eyeball-averaged 4 strikeouts per nine innings over the last three seasons. Most of what he has left is his durability - in his last few years as an effective starter, he pitched 233, 255, and 246 innings on some awful Expos/Natinals teams. He's been lucky so far this year, posting a .158 BABIP and leading some to wonder how he turned it around this year, but he's still the same shitty pitcher from the last few years. Which of course means he'll throw a 3-hit shutout tonight.

As far as Gorzelanny goes, I still think despite all evidence to the contrary that he's the most likely guy to be demoted to the pen if they ever move Z back (*jams improvised paper-clip shiv in ear*). Just a feeling. He has been striking out a ton of batters in his first few starts, which is a nice sign.

Wednesday: Luis Atilano, RHP (3.68, 5.27, -) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.92, 3.54, 3.89), 1:20 PM CT
Atilano made his major league debut last week agains the Dodgers and was fairly effective, allowing only one run over 6 innings. He wasn't blowing anyone away though - he only struck out one. None of the systems (on fangraphs at least) seem to have projected him, but based on last year's minor league numbers he's basically a replacement level starter. He has decent control, but that's about it. Maybe HP will chime in more on what he throws before his start.

Dempster continues to roll along, piling up strikeouts and getting a decent number of ground balls, exactly what you want to see. He's been a bit lucky with HRs, but there's no question that he's the best pitcher on the team right now.

Prediction Cubs win 2 out of 3, and climb back to .500. Given the shitty pitchers the Cubs are facing this series, a sweep is not out of the question, but the Natinals have a decent offense and are facing the back end of the Cubs rotation here too.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (4-10) at Milwaukee Brewers (8-7)

The Cubs just lost consecutive series to the worst team in the NL (Astros), and the worst managed/GM-ed team in the NL (Mets). Now the Cubs and their ice-cold offense head into Milwaukee, who are fresh off a sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, outscoring them 36-1. As you can see below, the Brewers are all offense, no pitching. Unlike the Cubs, who have had great starting pitching, but shitty, shitty offense. In the last 7 games Cubs starters have given up 2,1,2,1,1,2, and 0 earned runs over a total of 41 1/3 innings, for an ERA of 1.95. And the team has only 2 wins in those games.

I feel pretty good about the starters matching up with the Brewers potent offense (power meets power), but the failpen is another story. If Z (I still can't believe I'm saying this), Marshall, and Marmol get all the extra work, then the Cubs will only lose these games 3-1 instead of 7-1.

Brewers lineup (current wOBA, CHONE wOBA, chone UZR)

1. 2B Rickie Weeks, RHB (.348, .374, -5.2)
2. CF Carlos Gomez, RHB (.325, .323, 11.4)
3. LF Lloyd Braun, RHB (.486, .404, -4.9)
4. 1B Prince Fielder, LHB (.309, .412, -3.0)
5. 3B Casey McGehee, RHB (.479, .324, -3.4)
6. RF Jim Edmonds, LHB (.371, .334, -6.2)
7. C Gregg Zaun, BHB (.149, .315, -1.2)
8. SS The Most Exciting Player Ever, RHB (.368, .322, 0.9)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3.98, 3.30, 3.62)
2. Randy Wolf, LHP (4.50, 4.01, 4.22)
3. Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57)
4. David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79)
5. Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23)
6. Trevor Hoffman, RHP (10.23, 6.52, 3.84)
7. LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (2.40, 3.47, 3.97)
8. Todd Coffey, RHP (4.60, 5.77, 4.10)

Injuries
Not much new on the Cubs front. Lilly comes back in Saturday's game. Caridad was supposed to start throwing this week but I haven't heard any news on him. For the Brewers, the only injury of note is to "3b" prospect Mat Gamel, who has a shoulder tear and should be out a few more weeks.

Players to watch
Don't look now (or I guess, look now), but Soriano has started looking pretty good at the plate. He's been locked in the past few games, and was taking a ton of pitches in Thursday's game. Look for him to break out against this weak pitching, especially Suppan and Davis. For the Brewers, how can you not go with The Most Exciting Player Ever? Fireworks go off whenever he handles a routine grounder to SS.

Matchups
Friday Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.83, 3.34, 3.89) vs Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23), 7:10 PM CT
Demp's having a great season. He didn't bring great control against the Brewers in his last start, but the Cubs' bats actually woke up, so he was pitching to contact for most of the game, including a towering HR by Lloyd Braun. Jeff Suppan, is, well, Jeff Suppan (dying laughing). Just look at those FIP and xFIP numbers.

Saturday Ted Lilly, LHP (-,-,4.10) vs Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57), 6:10 PM CT
Ted had a nice outing in his last rehab start on monday and should be ready to go. He struck out 9 over 7 innings and threw strikes, which is what he's best at. He's a fun guy to watch pitch. Davis has been hammered pretty hard in all three of his starts this year, and hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in any of them. The Cubs hit a pair of homers against him last week, and with the righty-heavy lineup they can throw out there, hopefully they can do the same again.

Sunday Randy Wells, RHP (2.43, 3.69, 4.27) vs David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79), 1:10 PM CT
Bush painted the corners in his last start against Pittsburgh, inducing a ton (14) ground balls over 7 innings. He's had a lot of BABIP luck (.220) and is doing a shitty job of striking out batters (4.82 K/9), so hopefully the Cubs get to see a little regression here. Wells, on the other hand, has posted great numbers despite being very unlucky (.362 BABIP). So far the main source of his success is a higher K rate and a lack of HRs. That streak will probably end in this series.

Prediction
Though this should be a boring series, since both teams strengths match up well. But the Failpen should be worth at least two losses. Cubs lose 2 out of 3. It's too bad Cubs Ace Carlos Silva won't pitch in this series.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (5-7) at New York Presbyterian Hospital (4-7)

Well, that was a disappointment. But luckily the Cubs are playing an even more disappointing team over the next four days. Seriously, Cubs fans, whenever you start feeling bad about this season just look at the Mets. The team blew big leads in 2007 and 2008 and were shut out of the playoffs, and then saw nearly their entire roster go down to injury last season, including Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, Jon Niese, John Maine, J.J. Putz, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, Oliver Perez, and others. Beltran (the team's best player) is still unable to play after microfracture knee surgery in January, the cicumstances surrounding which are still unclear. The Mets claim they did not give him permission to get the surgery, and aired out all this dirty laundry to the NY Press. On top of this bizarre PR reverse-push, current manager Jerry Manuel was hired in 2008 after the bizarre firing of Jerry Manuel in the wee hours of the morning after the team had just won a game on a west-coast road trip, and most of the team found out from the media the next day.

To 'fix' the roster from last season Minaya went out and replaced the aging (and probably still injured) Delgado with Mike Jacobs, he of the .332 projected wOBA. Furthermore, he also acquired Angels millstone Gary Matthews Jr. to help fill in for the missing Beltran. The only big splash the team made in the offseason was signing the overrated Jason Bay, while seemingly completely ignoring their terrible pitching rotation. It seemed like the Mets were the second choice in every deal, and signed half a hundred backup catchers before Bengie Molina, who's not a great asset himself but was the only 'legitamite' starting catcher on the market, ended up re-signing with the Giants after the Mets kept dragging their feet. On top of that, midway through the previous season Minaya traded for my personal Bete Noire, Jeff Francouer, to be their everyday right fielder.

It's amazing how much of a joke this franchise has turned into.

The Cubs offense needs to wake up, and this could be just the series for it. The Mets are throwing three left-handers against the RHH-heavy Cubs, though their cavernous park should temper our expectations.

Mets lineup (with CHONE projected wOBA, UZR)

1. SS Jose Reyes, BHB (.366, 7.6)
2. 2B Luis Castillo, BHB (.329, -6.9)
3. 3b David Wright, RHB (.393, -6.0)
4. LF Jason Bay, RHB (.388, -6.9)
5. 1B Mike Jacobs, LHB (.332, -5.2)
6. RF Jeff Francouer, RHB (.327, -3.0)
7. C Rod Barajas, RHB (.304, 4.3)
8. CF Angel Pagan, BHB (.334, 6.1)

Pitchers (with current FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. 1. Johan Santana, LHP (2.85,3.95,3.79)
2. John Maine, RHP (8.02, 5.70, 4.43)
3. Jon Niese, LHP (4.65, 5.33, 4.23)
4. Mike Pelfrey, RHP (2.66, 4.02, 4.36)
5. Oliver Perez, LHP (3.10, 4.35, 4.90)
6. Francisco Rodriguez, RHP (3.02, 4.65, 3.43)
7. Pedro Feliciano, LHP (5.35, 5.80, 3.94)
8. Ryota Igarashi, RHP (4.07, 5.52, xxx)

Injuries:
Currently, the Mets hospital lineup includes reliever Sean Green (rib injury), "1B" Daniel Murphy (knee injury, out 2-6 weeks), Carlos Beltran (knee surgery, out until at least May), and oft-injured pitcher Kelvim Escobar (shoulder soreness, not expected to contribute for months). For the Cubs, Lilly is expected to make his last rehab start on Monday before rejoining the team to make his season debut on Saturday in Milwaukee.

Players to watch:
Geo Soto's bat has warmed up in the past few days, and it would be great to see him (and the rest of the Cubs bats) warm up against the left-handed pitching they will see in this series. For the Mets, I'd love to see Francouer strike out about a dozen times in this series against the Cubs strikeout staff. I don't think he could draw a walk off even 2009 Marmol.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Randy Wells, RHP (2.45, 3.78, 4.27) vs Jon Niese, LHP (4.65, 5.33, 4.23), 6:10 PM CT
Wells had a decent outing in his last start, even striking out the side in the first. He ran out of gas in the later innings too, and not surprisingly got into trouble after walking the pitcher. Niese looks like a decent young pitcher who could turn into a pretty good one. He pitched well in 5 starts with the squad last season before presumably going down with some sort of injury (with the 2009 Mets, it's a safe assumption). Fangraphs says that he throws mostly 90 mph fastballs and 89 mph cutters, though I'll trust HP more if he takes another look at him. He gets a decent number of ground balls though, so there's a chance that cutter is actually a 2-seamer.

Tuesday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (6.17, 3.70, 4.08) vs Mike Pelfrey, RHP (2.66, 4.02, 4.36), 6:10 PM CT
Z had issues with cramps and wildness in his last outing against the Brewers. Despite that he still was as 'effective' as Brewers starter Jeff Suppan. Hopefully this will remind him to eat his bananas and gatorade this season. Pelfrey's leads the Mets in both wins AND saves so far, and closed out the 20-inning suckfest on saturday on his throw day (one day's rest). He'll probably still get the start here, I think. He's a sinkerballer, but so far this season his secondary pitches (splitter, slider, curve) have been pretty sharp this season.

Wednesday: Carlos Silva, RHP (2.02, 3.38, 4.67) vs Oliver Perez, LHP (3.10, 4.35, 4.90), 6:10 PM CT
The Fail Whale continues to impress Lou and surprise everyone. I'm still skeptical of Rothschild 'fixing' him, but so far it definitely seems he's earned the rotation spot that he and Gorz were fighting over for when Lilly returns. Silva struck out 5 and walked none in his last start, and the 2 runs he allowed were both unearned. Who knows what's going on with Perez. He's always had good stuff but shitty control, but apparently this year he's lost a nontrivial amount of velocity on his fastball. He mixed in a lot more offspeed pitches with uncharacteristically good control in his last start, but given his track record you can't expect him to keep that up.

Thursday: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.48, 3.80, 4.43) vs Johan Santana, LHP (2.85,3.95,3.79), 6:10 PM CT
Gorzelanny took a liner off his arm in his last start and had to be pulled after three innings. From all reports he's okay, if a little sore, and should make his next start. The 'bright' spot in that game was actually the failpen, which pitched 6 innings and only gave up 2 runs, which isn't bad for a pen. Santana threw a great start to begin the 20-inning affair with the Cardinals, striking out 9 while walking one and allowing no runs in 7 innings. He's not the elite pitcher he once was, though he's still a great pitcher. The main source of his decline seems to be that he's lost his great change-up, which was one of if not the best changeups in mlb history.

Prediction: Split series. The Cubs win on monday and wednesday but get shut down by gb machine (and right-hander) Pelfrey and lose the mismatch with Santana.

Road Trip Recap and Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (2-3) at Chicago Cubs (2-4)

(cross posted at ACB)

Well, that sucked. What did we learn from the opening road trip?

1. Alfonso Soriano looks even worse on defense than he did last season, despite the fact that he was playing hurt all of last year
2. He looks just as lost with the plate
3. Soto has forgotten how to swing his bat
4. Aramis Ramirez looks lost at the plate
5. The offense in general is having trouble scoring runs
6. The bullpen is going to kill Ron Santo
7. John Grabow should not face any RHH that can outhit Neifi Perez

Now, the good news

1. Carlos Marmol's stuff is still incredibly flithy
2. The starting pitching was pretty great. It's hard to pick which one was the best but I'd probably go with Dempster's outing vs Atlanta (6 IP 1R 3H 2BB 9K). Silva and Gorz were surprisingly effective too
3. After looking like crap in the first two games, Fontenot found his glove and showcased some great defense in the Reds series (and got a few hits too). Fukudome made some great plays in RF. All in all, players whose names do not rhyme with Garbanzo Italiano played some good defense.
4. It's only been a week. We have good reason to believe Ramirez will bounce back, and to a lesser extent Soto. Even Soriano should get hot at some point. The Cubs are mixing Colvin in, which is the right thing to do (though he should be replacing Soriano defensively earlier in games), but you have to give these guys at least a month or two before you make any major changes.

Anyway, enough blathering. Onto the first Wrigley series of the year!

The Cubs take on the Brewers in what should be a beautiful week (great weather, 6 straight day games) to watch a baseball game, drink some Old Style, and gaze at the Glorious Scoreboard™ and the regenerating ivy vines...except the boo-birds should be out. Who will get booed the most? Soriano is the best bet but Z should be up there too. But the best way to stop the boos is to win, and the Cubs are set up to do so in this series with their rivals and their Little Brother Complex fanbase from the north.

Here's a glance at the Brewers' lineup and pitching staff

Batters (CHONE wOBA, CHONE UZR projection)

* 2b Rickie Weeks, RHB (.364, -5.2)
* CF Carlos Gomez, RHB (.323, 11.3)
* LF Lloyd Braun, RHB (.404, -4.9)
* 1b Prince Fielder, LHB (.412,-3)
* RF Jim Edmonds, LHB (.334,-0.2)
* 3b Casey McGehee, RHB (.324,-3.4)
* C Gregg Zaun, SHB (.315,-1.2)
* SS Overrated Escobar, (.322,0.9)

My lineup-a-tron pegs this lineup at 3.719 runs/game

Pitchers (CHONE FIP)

* Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3.62)
* Randy Wolf, LHP (4.22)
* Doug Davis, LHP (4.57)
* Dave Bush, RHP (4.79)
* Jeff Suppan, LOL (5.24)
* Trevor Hoffman, RHP (3.84)
* LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (3.97)
* Todd Coffey, RHP (4.10)

That non-Braun/Fielder offense is much more pedestrian than I thought. McGehee played way over his head last season, though I think CHONE might have him pegged a little low. Gomez is graded out to be their only plus defender, but scouts have raved about Escobar's defense for a long time - his main problem is that he swings at everything. Their defensive numbers could see a slight bump up with those two in place of Cameron (who is about as good as Gomez defensively) and J.J. Hardy (who was also pretty good defensively), but don't expect a big defense-related turnaround with this team.

Injuries

Suppan not only sucks, but he's making his first start coming back from a neck injury. Future DH trade bait Mat Gamel has a shoulder tear and is expected to miss the first month or two of the season. For the Cubs, Lilly has had another setback and has had his next start pushed back to Wednesday. He'll throw a bullpen session on Monday. Theriot has been bothered by a sore calf but was well enough to play (and take some pitches) today. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fontenot get a start sometime in the next week.

Players to watch

I actually like several players on the Brewers, but it's kind of cancelled out by the douchiness of Braun and the crapulence of their pitching staff in general. Prince Fielder is one of my favorite players in all of baseball, and Rickie Weeks can still be an incredible player if he manages to make it through the season for once. He's an exciting player and can get on base. For the Cubs, I'm not going to pick someone specific. The offense in general needs to pick it up, and there's no better recipe than the starters the Cubs are facing this week (not to mention the shambolic Astros in the following series).

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Doug Davis, LHP (6.41,4.52,4.57) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.41,1.86,3.89), 1:20 PM CT

I'm glad Demp gets the start in the home opener, since he is the nominal ace of the staff (if you define Ace to be best starting pitcher). We can't say enough about what a great job Hendry did in bringing him back after 2008. Everything was working for him in his last start. Adding further hope for a good start at home, Davis is a LHP, which the Cubs righty-heavy lineup should pound. Of course, I remember Davis giving the Cubs fits in many other starts. He's pretty wild (4+ BB/9 projected, and 4.07 for his career), but given the Cubs swing-happy clubs maybe it's not so surprising that he does well against them. In his first start, he was wild early and settled down as the game went on.

Wednesday: David Bush, RHP (4.14,2.81,4.79) vs Randy Wells, RHP (3.57,4.26,4.27), 1:20 PM CT

Bush has great control (2.15 BB/9 in his career) but his main trouble has always been the home run ball (1.28 HR/9 on his career, 1.41 and 1.50 in his last 2 seasons). He had a pedestrian outing vs StL in his first start, fanning 6 while walking two and giving up 3 runs (one homer) in 5 2/3 innings. Wells, meanwhile, had a great start against the Braves. He only struck out one batter, but he didn't allow any runs and managed to induce double play balls to get him out of jams. He got 13 grounders to only 3 FB and 5 LD. If he can keep the GB rate (and popup rate) going like he did last year, he'll keep putting up useful numbers.

Thursday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (6.99,3.62,4.08) vs Jeff Suppan, RHP (5.23) 1:20 PM CT

This should be a fun one. There is a chance Gallardo could get this start (he's listed as the probable on mlb.com), but everything else I've seen points towards Suppan making this start. Luckily for the Brewers, this is the last year of his awful, awful deal. Hats off to Suppan, who turned 2 good weeks at the end of 2006 into $42 million dollars. Well played, sir, well played.

Fun fact: Z has a career 3.64 ERA at home and 3.35 ERA on the road

Prediction

Cubs win 2 out of 3, and a good chance for a sweep. I also think that Sean Marshall and Jeff Gray will replace Grabow and Caridad as the top 2 relievers behind Marmol by the end of the week.

Today in meaningless superstitions

I watched the first 6 innings of the Cubs game last night and was feeling pretty good. Silva looked shockingly good (and efficient), and the Cubs got some runs off of Bailey, who was quite wild last night. I was a little worried that they didn't take advantage as much as they could have. I was actually pretty surprised to find that he only walked two batters (though he did hit two). Anyway, after the 6th inning I gave in to my wife's suggestion that I get a new Cubs hat. She's been suggesting it for a few years now but I stood firm - the cap is nice and broken-in, comfortable, and actually fitted to go over my enormous head (I can't wear most of the usual flex-fit hats that they sell at/near the stadium). I've owned it for about 8-9 years and have been wearing it nearly every day since the middle of the 2003 season. However, it could be seized by the Center For Disease Control any day now to advance microbial science by about 50 years. Here's a pic



My wife refuses to even touch it at this point (dying laughing). Anyway, to continue the story we headed down to the mall to see if I could find a new hat at one of the innumerable sports paraphenelia stores there*. We caught the 7th on WGN in the car on the way, listening to Berg retire the Reds in order in the 7th. The Cubs were up 3-1 at this point and I figured that either 1) the Cubs would win, and I'd already seen the key moments in the game or 2) The bullpen would implode and I wouldn't want to experience it anyway. I picked a new hat (pictured below).

*It could just be me, or maybe Wisconsin being weird, but there are way too many sports-y stores at the mall. I hit the hat shop and a more general jersey shop, but I also spotted no more than 2 sports memorabilia stores there (to get important stuff like packers trash cans, banners, steins, etc). There's also a Dick's there and one of the generally awful department stores (Gordman's) actually has a great selection of Cubs gear (i.e. the t-shirt jerseys that I prefer).



Apparently I'm the only Cubs fan I know (including my wife) who likes the red-brimmed hat better than the all-blue one. The all-blue ones look too drab. I definitely need to break this in - I don't like the too-new look of, well, new hats, but I also think it's dumb to buy the pre-distressed ones you sometimes see. New hats also have a lot more shaping/structure than I seem to remember - there's gotta be an inch between my scalp and the top of the hat at some points. I don't remember if this was also the case with my circa 2001 hats or if new era has just changed things. It makes my head look really tall. Once I accidentally sit on it a few times that might fix it though.

Anyway, I bought the and we cruised through the bookstore (our favorite thing to do on friday night, huge nerds that we are), and headed back to the car. Orange Guy was on the postgame show and sounded kind of chipper, so I assumed the Cubs won...until he reported that the pen had blown the game with a HR. I got home and saw that Caridad blew the game with a GS in the 8th...probably just as I bought the hat. I've got the receipt so I know the time, but I'm too lazy to check to see the game time when it happened. On top of all that, the Reds tried to give away the game in the 9th, giving up a HR to Lee and then flubbing the final out of the game not once but twice, before Chad Tracy grounded out with the bases loaded to end the game 5-4.

My dog is now sporting her Cubs bandana to right this karmic wrong. Now that she's blind she can't watch the failpile of bullpen implosions this year.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (1-2) at Cincinnati Reds (1-2)

(cross-posted at ACB)

The pitching staff kept it exciting from time to time, but the Cubs pulled out their first win of the season vs the Braves last night, salvaging the series. Wells was a little rocky early on but settled down a bit as the game went on, managing to get himself out of jams (one of which he created with a throwing error on another DP opp) with two double play balls. Hopefully Lou has disabused the notion of using Grabow as a setup man, and will use him as an overpaid LOOGY instead.

I'm not that worried (or surprised) that the Cubs dropped this series to the Braves. They were playing on the road, against one of the top 3 teams in the NL. I think the main thing we learned from this series is pretty much ZOMG Jayson Heyward. And that Grabow sucks.

On to Cincinnati, the city I always have to look up to remember how to spell!

Here's a glance at the main contributers to the team, along with their CHONE projected wOBAs and FIP

Batters (lineup simulator: 3.2508 runs/game)

1. Stubbs, CF (.317)
2. Cabrera, SS (.320)
3. Votto, 1b (.392)
4. Phillips, 2b (.336)
5. Rolen, 3b (.344)
6. Bruce, RF (.379)
7. Gomes, LF (.355)
8. Hernandez, C (.325)

Pitchers

1. Harang, RHP (4.26)
2. Arroyo, RHP (4.81)
3. Cueto, RHP (4.67)
4. Bailey, RHP (4.66)
5. Leake, RHP (??)
6. Cordero, RHP (3.66) - closer
7. Masset, RHP (3.84) - RH setup
8. Rhodes, LHP (3.69) - LH setup

Wow, looking over those numbers, especially the pitching staff, I'm really scratching my head as to why people are high on the Reds to be on the fringes of contention this year. I'm sure it will be even uglier when I do the Brewers after this series, but wow, what a shambolic staff projection. Most of the optimism has to do with the upside of their young pitchers, Bailey (who had a good run at the end of last year), Cueto (who had a good run 2 years ago but is still young), and Leake, whose talent was overshadowed by Strasburg but is going to make his pro debut without throwing a single pitch in the minors, the first to do so since Jim Abbott in 1988.

Injuries:
Not much going on for the Cubs that will affect this series. Lilly had today's rehab start pushed back 2 days due to back stiffness. Jeff Gray pitched for Iowa last night, and will likely join the squad as soon as he's elgible. He'll probably bump F7 or Russell from the roster. Nothing seems to be cooking for the Reds, except that ROY candidate Edinson Volquez is still recovering from his TJS.

Players to watch:
I'm excited to see Leake pitch on Sunday. It's pretty rare to see a guy thrown right into the majors, but the Reds seem to believe his stuff. After a good series against the Braves, the Cubs player to watch is Marlon Byrd. He hammered both of his HRs, especially the second one.

Pitching matchups:
Friday: Carlos Silva, RHP (4.67) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (4.66), 6:10 PM CT
Silva had a good spring, but sadly we'll probably see something closer to the CHONE projection above. Rothschild has changed his delivery a bit, most notably moving him over on the rubber. It has worked so far, but I'm kind of skeptical, since if something so simple could 'fix' him, you'd think someone would have tried it in the past 5 years. Bailey is a former overhyped prospect who has now shed the labels that he had coming up - mainly because he flopped in his first few stints in the majors. However, Bailey finally seemed to figure it out last year - routinely going deep into games in the minors for the first half of the year, and then posted a 1.70 ERA in his last nine starts with the big league club at the end of the year. He doesn't have great control (4.13 BB/9 last season) or particularly dominating stuff (6.83 K/9 last season), but it seems that his MO is that of a slight GB pitcher (42.5%)

Note: for pitchers who have already pitched, I am listing their FIP, xFIP, and CHONE projected FIP.
Saturday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (3.61,4.27,4.08) vs Aaron Harang, RHP (4.14,3.95,4.26), 12:10 PM CT
Well, let's see if Z can bounce back from that opening day nightmare. Great American Band Box might not be the best place to do it, given how HRs fly out of the place. I thought Z's pitches looked like they had lots of movement on them in his first start, but he threw way too many pitches up in the zone, and from what Z/Lou said, he didn't have great control either. He did have a great PA against Glaus, who he struck out on 3 94-95 mph fastballs, which was pretty much the only bright spot in the start. He'll have the same leaky infield defense behind him, so lets hope that by getting the ball down a bit more there will be less bloops and more balls hit past futilely diving middle infielders. Harang is another perpetually underrated pitcher, just like Z. He gets a ton of strikeouts, but far fewer ground balls than I expected. In fact, you'd think a fly-ball pitcher like Harang would be a recipe for disaster given his home ballpark. He's broken down a bit since Dusty's arrival, seeing his K rate drop and bb rate rise a bit, but that could just be due to aging. He was also quite hit-unlucky last year (.339 BABIP), so should see a little better luck this year.

Sunday: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (4.43) vs Mike Leake, RHP (??)
Right now it seems like Silva has the edge on staying in the Rotation when Lilly returns, so Gorz pretty much has two starts to convince the Cubs otherwise. Lord of the internets Harry Pavlidis did a breakdown of Gorzelanny's stuff after the Cubs acquired him last season. He throws 4 and 2 seamers, a changeup, curveball, and slider. He's mostly a fastball-changeup guy against RHP, and mixes in a few more sliders vs lefties. Leake, having had no minor league stats whatsoever aside from his AFL stint last fall, doesn't even have a fangraphs page yet. He was a star at Arizona state though. Here are his lines from the past 3 seasons:

Year	IP	R	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP
2007	117.2	54	13	27	90	3.60	3.79
2008	121.1	61	7	20	104	3.49	2.73
2009	142	31	4	24	162	1.71	1.79

It sure looks like he's ready. That last year was Strasburg-esque. Per KG, he has an above-average speed fastball with good movement that he locates well, a good change, and an average curveball and slider. He also hit pretty well in college too. The main knocks against him are that he's short and he doesn't have one dominating pitch, just a collection of good ones. KG has him pegged as a third starter with upside. He's still young, so some of those pitches could improve with major league coaching, so long as his arm doesn't fall off

Prediction: I think the Cubs take the first two games and lose the third to Leake.

Cubs start season 0-2

I'm not worried, though I did find the games a bit disappointing. I've been waiting for months for real baseball, only to be reminded of the following facts

1. Soriano still waves futiley at sliders down and away
2. I still hate the John Grabow signing
3. Ryan Theriot is frustrating to watch on defense, no matter what the metrics tell me
4. The Cubs continue to show terrible fundamentals in the field and on the basepaths
5. Jeff Samardzija should be catching footballs
6. Ron Santo is a year older but sounds about 10 years older. I'm worried about his health.

But, on the bright side
1. I still love watching baseball, and watched/listened to all of the home opener despite how much it brought me down from my pre-game optimism and anticipation.
2. Jason Heyward. Wow.
3. Sean Marshall has looked dominating as a reliever. Someone mentioned on ACB that he might be this year's DeRosa.

The Braves are a really good ballclub - possibly the best or second-best team in the NL (up there with the Phillies). We shouldn't be surprised that a fringy team like the Cubs would lose a road series to (or get swept by) a top team like this.

Who will be Fukudome's caddy?

The big news the other day was that Nady won't play 'regularly' until June, which led to much gnashing of teeth in the Cubs blogosphere but a fair number of shrugged shoulders around the rest of the interwebs. Reading the tea leaves, It sounds like Nady is likely to make the roster but should primarily be a pinch hitter.

After my initial WTF reaction, I'm not quite as teeth-gnashy as I was before but I still think the Cubs should do something. Nady will still have some value I guess as a PH, but this would mean we would get ~2 months of Fukudome or someone batting against LHP. Without Nady, who would this be? Based on the current projected roster (and my handy platoon split calculator), here's what we have

Player	wOBA vs LHP
Fukudome (L)	.317
Fuld (L)	.307
Hoffpauir (L)	.314
Millar (R)	.325
Tracy (L)	.286
Colvin (L)	.296

In other words, ick. Millar is the best option, bat-wise, but he would probably make Hoffpauir look good in the OF.

I guess what will happen is that Fukudome will just have to hit 8th. Or maybe Fuld - he's hit lefties well in his very small sample of PAs, and Fukudome has a rep for a guy who needs a little more time off.

Luckily since the Cubs lineup is so RH anyway, they should be pounding LHP so this shouldn't be much of a big deal.

Offseason plans

Aside from writing my thesis and applying for jobs, I have a few ideas for some baseball-related stuff to do this offseason. The two biggest ones are

1. Finally get around to reading The Book and make posts/do some work in keeping with the content of each chapter as I go. It's a tough read - you can only do it a chapter at a time anyway so it should make for some good blag posts.

2. Attempt to make a comprehensive glossary of the various stats and projections we use over at ACB. shawndgoldman and I talked about doing this offseason series awhile ago and it should be fun, not the least of which because I don't know a lot of the details about where some of the formulas come from myself

And of course, the usual run-down of roster signings, stumping for free agents, hair pulling at stupid signings, and predictions of doom-and-gloom for the 2010 Cubs.