Goodbye, Ronnie

I've been traveling overseas and missed my chance to react to Santo's death here on the blog. Luckily so many other excellent people have beaten me to the punch (links included at the end of the post).

It's tough to pin any particular reason why we are fans of particular sports teams. Many are fans of teams because they were hometown teams, others (like me) because of family tradition, or simply because for many people the Cubs and the Braves played a lot of games on national TV. I was a Cubs and Yankees fan growing up but couldn't have named more than two players on the team in any given year - I pretty much just watched the World Series and occasional games on WGN when we hooked our cable back up when I was in high school. After I went to college, I started watching more games and, more importantly, started listening to games on the radio. It's safe to say that Ron Santo is the reason why I am the Cubs fan that I am today.

Santo cared too much about the games, and that's why I loved him. It always felt like he was your crazy old uncle or grandfather in the booth. Hughes was always good about giving scores, but if you just tuned in you could always tell how the Cubs were doing by listening to Ron for half a second (or more telling, not hearing him at all). His sheer excitement, especially in the 2008 season (that I caught nearly all of on the radio) was infectious and amplified all of our own excitement. The last two years have not been as kind to him, both medically and emotionally (given the team's performance) but Ron was a guy who never gave up on the team or himself.

After the 2003 postseason raised the stakes for Cubs fans and especially after watching This Old Cub, I knew that when the Cubs eventually did win it all there was no doubt that I'd be sharing the experience with Pat and Ron on the radio. I'd get shivers down my spine just thinking about it. Things didn't work out in 2007 or 2008, and now that Ron is gone we will never get to experience this. When they do win it will still be for him. But it sure would be nicer if he could be there to share it with us.

And Counting
A League Of Her Own
Tales from Aisle 424
Cubs f/x
Suburban Kid from ACB's take on Santo
ACB's look at Santo's HOF-worthy career
ACB on Santo compared to other HOF 3b

Cub fandom

It's been a frustrating few weeks to be a Cubs fan. Aside from the lousy play of the team, there has been an absolute media trainwreck that could result in Milton Bradley and Carlos Zambrano being shipped out of town (at their own request). We saw this already with Sammy Sosa in 2004 - he was one of the most (if not THE most) popular players in franchise history but the Chicago media tarred and feathered him to the point that everyone felt pleased with themselves when he was shipped out of town in exchange for Mike Fontenot and a bag of balls.

Many people over at ACB have been claiming that they will quit their Cub fandom if one/both of these guys are run out of town by the media/fans. I don't know how serious they are about jumping ship to, say, Another Rangers Blog or become Dodgers fans or who knows what - I'm even crappier at reading people's levels of serious on the internets than I am in person. If that is the case, and ACB as I know it is essentially dissolved, I will be pretty disappointed. For one, I like the people over there, and the random conversations we have. But I will still be a Cubs fan (albeit a very frustrated one) if they blow up the team this offseason.

I was 'born into' Cub fandom through my Cub-fan parents, and became a pretty serious fan after the awful 2003 playoff disaster, but as time has passed the main reason I'm a Cubs fan is this - I have the vain hope of hearing Ron Santo experience a Cubs World Series championship. I know all the criticisms of Ron as a broadcaster/player/etc (and even agree with many of them), but the This Old Cub documentary really sucked me in. It's kind of foolish, but I guess that's what being a fan is all about.

Random thoughts on cub fandom

I've got a terrible secret - I actually haven't been a Cubs fan for all that long. I grew up as a Cubs fan (and pretty much a baseball-only sports fan), but I never really knew anything about the team. I imagine that's the way it goes with most kids growing up, especially if they don't live near the team that they root for. I knew that Ryne Sandberg was the best player on the team and I knew the names Mark Grace and Andre Dawson but that's about it. My baseball fandom really just amounted to watching the World Series and watching the home run chase in 1998. Since I was basically just watching the playoffs, I enoyed watching the Yankees teams in those years, kicking ass and taking names in the height of their mini-dynasty. It wasn't until my cousin got me hooked on fantasy baseball back in 2001, not to mention the fact that when I got to college I suddenly had easy access to WGN and had the time to actually watch a decent number of games, that I took another look at this whole baseball thing.

I loosely followed the ups and downs of the 2001 and 2002 teams, but 2003 (and what might have been in the playoffs that year) is when I was really drawn in. What a team that was - Cubs legend (and soon to be shamefully treated Cubs pariah) Sammy Sosa was declining but still carrying the sub-par offense on his back, Hendry fleeced Pittsburgh in the Ramirez trade and brought in Kenny Lofton to spark the offense, and the pitching, oh, the pitching. The Cubs had a pair of aces in Wood and Prior, backed up by an on-his-game Matt Clement, some goofy Venezualan kid named Carlos Zambrano, and, inexplicably, Shawn Estes. It was just my luck that Estes was pitching the only game that I saw in person that season. It's no conicedence that this team had my three favorite Cubs players of all time (Prior, Sosa, Z). It sucks that it didn't work out for that team, but as Santo likes to say, that's baseball.

What got me thinking about this, though, is the 1998 Cubs. A year or so ago, my in-laws bought me a cd that was made at the end of the 98 season with various audio clips and songs from the season (and of course, Go Cubs Go) and listening to it makes me both really nostalgic about that team and bummed that I completely missed out on it. It feels strange to feel this nostalgia even though I didn't experience any of this stuff at all, aside from the HR race.

• The 98 HR race between Sosa and McGuire


• Getting to the playoffs for the first time since '89


• Kerry Wood's rookie season


• Kerry Wood's 20-K game


• Harry Caray's death before the start of the season and the ensuinge tributes to him


• Rod Beck being Rod Beck


• And probably half a hundred other things that I've forgotten or don't know about, because I wasn't there

Maybe it's just because I still know who many of these players are that I'm feeling this, I don't know. After watching This Old Cub, the '69 Cubs are also up there too but I just don't get that same shiver I get when thinking about the '98 or '03 Cubs, even though I suspect that the '69 club was a better team than both of them.

UPDATE
I just went back and looked at the '98 Cubs roster and am floored. Despite all the nostalgia that team had going for it (above), that was NOT a great team. Any Cubs team since the 2003 run (excluding 2006, which we all should try to block out of our minds) was better than that one.

A little perspective: the 2008 Cubs vs the 2003 Cubs

This postseason sucked hard. But, was it worse than 2003? Let's compare the two seasons.

In 2003, we did not have a great team. Sosa was our only all-star quality bat (though our pickup of Aramis Ramirez was HUGE). The team was built around pitching, specifically Zambrano, Wood, and a splendidly awesome season by Mark Prior. Borowski somehow put a good year together at the end of what was a middling bullpen, at best. The team caught fire in September sneaking in with a 88-74 record, and managed to tough it out against the Braves. We all know what happened in the NLCS though.

On the other hand, the 2008 Cubs were clearly the best team in the National League. We scored the most runs in the NL and gave up the second fewest, played great defense, and arguably had 4 aces (when Lilly finally got it together) for the stretch run. Zambrano finally pitched a no-hitter, we saw Soto take over the black hole that had been the catcher position, and the Cubs rolled through the NL. It wasn't just the crappy teams either - with the exception of a series again Cincinatti we played teams with winning records all through September, compiling a record of 11-10 against them (some of which occured after we clinched, and were resting players). Our final record was 97-64, and we came into the playoffs ready to go. But we all know what happened - the team laid an egg, plain and simple.

So which was worse?

As raw as the wounds from this year's postseason have hurt, I still think 2003 was worse. We were 5 freaking outs away from the series! I find having defeat snatched from the jaws of victory much much worse than what happened this year. I was really bummed after the first game, but hopeful, but after the blowout in game 2, I had made my peace with the fact that it just wasn't our year (again). It was depressing, but it wasn't a stomach punch the way that 2003 Game 6 was. We also had almost 2 entire days to reconcile our feelings before the Dodgers finished off the Cubs, due to the off day and the very late start time of game 3.

As depressing as it was, it happened much more slowly, and I have a lot of good memories of this season - Z's no hitter, Soto's walkoff HR against the Brewers in September, being at the game (my first one at Wrigley in over 2 years) when the Cubs clinched their playoff berth, the 9-run comeback vs the Rockies...I could go on and on. This was a special team and a special season, and their poor postseason play is not going to take those memories away from me. So, unlike Al, I will not throw out the NL Central championship t-shirt that I bought at the stadium - it reminds me of the game I went to and the season as a whole, not how it ended.

The core of this team (the best in the NL) will be back next year, and have a better than decent shot of being in the exact same situation they were in this year (in the playoffs, a good team). If we keep winning titles, then, gorram it, we gotta win sometime. Just look at the Braves of the 1990s - they only won one World Series, but you gotta give yourself some chances. The best team in a short series does not win 100% of the time...just gotta hope the ball bounces our way next time (unlike those bad hops in game 2...)

Until then, GO CUBS

And that

as they say, is that.

Good luck to the Tampa Bay Rays, who I thought were the best team in the playoffs even before the Cubs were eliminated. I guess I'm rooting for the Phillies now in the NL.

Cubs postmortem content to come - I'm at least going to write a short season recap - identify players who should be recognized. I'm thinking I might also do a player-by-player season recap before looking to next year.

Now that baseball season is over, maybe blogging can take over as my only hobby...

Looking ahead

Since the Cubs are now at 99.9977% to reach the playoffs, I feel safe in talking about the PLAYOFFS now. First, the NL playoff teams, as they stand today

Cubs
Phillies
Dodgers
Mets (WC)

It would be extremely shocking if the Cubs and Dodgers lose their divisions at this point. The only real contenders left for playoff spots are the Brewers, Phillies, Mets, and Astros. Sadly, I see the Astros continuiug their post-hurricane slump, so the only real contenders left are the Brewers, Phils, and Mets. here are the possiblilities

1. Brewers win WC, Phllies win NL east
2. Brewers in WC, Mets win NL east
3. Mets win WC, Phillies win NL east
4. Phillies win WC, Mets win NL east

In situations 1 and 2, the Cubs play the Dodgers, in 3 and 4, the Cubs play the WC leaders. If we look purely at Nate Silver's Secret Sauce , we can get some insight on what would be best for the Cubs.

Note: The secret sauce is a pretty simple formula - Nate determined that the 3 variables that best suggest success in the playoffs are Team Defense, Starting Pitching, and having a Shutdown Closer. Simply rank each team in these categories, add up the 3 rankings, and the lowest score has the best Secret Sauce rating. Here's how things break down for these teams

Cubs: Fielding - 1, Pitching - 3, Closer - 20, total - 24
Phils: Fielding - 14, Pitching - 20, Closer - 1, total - 35
Brew Crew: Fielding - 10, Pitching - 17, Closer - 9, total - 36
Mets: Fielding - 8, Pitching - 14, Closer - 22, Total - 44
Dodgers: Fielding - 17, Pitching - 11, Closer - 16, total - 44

Thus, clearly the Cubs should be rooting for the Phillies to win the division, as we would get the Dodgers or Mets in the first round (even better would be the mets, since that calculation was made using Wagner's numbers, and their BP is even more in shambles now). A 1-game playoff for the Brewers and Mets (as mentioned in an earlier post) would be especially choice, as it would weaken both of them heading in to the playoffs. My personal feeling though is that I would rather play the Dodgers - Manny is their only star offensive player, and none of their starters scare me. The Mets at least have Santana and some legitimate hitters (Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Delgado) that we would have to worry about, flammabile bullpen notwithstanding. They would throw Santana at us twice in a 5 game series, which would be tough to beat...though we have beaten the Brewers on both of Sabathia's starts...(power lefties...)


On a personal note, I'm hoping that the Cubs split their remaning games with the Brewers (losing tonight would be fine since it's Sheets v Marquis, our most average pitcher). That way, we don't clinch on Thursday, and could clinch on Saturday instead vs. the Cardinals. I only say this because I will BE at that game (thanks to my awesome in-laws). That would be freaking awesome. What would be doubly awesome would be if Holy Shit Carlos Zambrano gets pushed back a day, due to his high pitch count in the no-hitter and need to cruise into the playoffs, and starts that game, because we love us some Carlos. Lilly is great too though...just glad that we won't get Marquis. I have a tendency to get 5th/spot starters at Cubs games that I go to for some reason so it will be nice to break the trend.

I'm curious how our playoff rotation will shake down. We probably won't have to go to a 3 man rotation, because who do you leave out of Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly? I could *maybe* see bouncing Lilly, depending on how well a team hits lefties. He should be great against the Dodgers though, if he can pitch in their stadium. My feeling is that we will see Z, Demp, Harden, Lilly, but I have no idea how it will break down. What a rotation!

Anyway, Go Cubs Go! (and Go Phillies Go!)

Cubs roundup

A few things:

1. With yesterday's win, the Cubs have now equaled the win total of the 2006 team. Furthermore, we passed the 2006 team's walk total back on July 23. Let us never speak of that team again

2. Great article in the New York Times today about Mark Cuban, and his potential to win the Cubs bidding. I'm a little less of a Cuban partisan than I used to be - I think he would be FANTASTIC for the franchise and would actually invest in it, unlike the cheapskate Tribune Company. I think we've only seen the tip of the iceberg in how the Cubs could be marketed nationally (see Boston, New York) and I would be shocked if Cuban didn't recognize this. His track record in Dallas is good with players too - he turned Dallas into a place that players wanted to play by, well, pampering his players.

That said, if Cuban becomes the owner I think we will see a much bigger focus on renovating Wrigley Field, which could easily be a problem. He clearly will want to fix the stuff that has needed to be fixed for years - terrible bathrooms (urinal troughs in this day and age?!), crummy concessions, the tiny clubhouses, and the lack of modern sports facilities. Luckily, even Cubes would be unlikely to move the Cubs away from Wrigley, but given his casual fan focus in Dallas we might see some changes that many Cubs fans would not be happy with - namely, a Jumbotron. Hopefully, Cuban will recognize that Wrigley does not need a Jumbotron or similar gimmicks to sell out Wrigley and keep fan interest in the team...but if the Cubs start losing (and losing attendance) we might start seeing the slow slide to video fandom.

3. Great article in the Hardball Times yesterday about the Cubbies. It breaks down how the Cubs have done so well this year - the main reason being the the Cubs are incredibly balanced. You can't write off the team as an all-pitch no-hit team (like the Angels) - the Cubs are well above average on offense, defense, starting pitching and relief pitching. Like the article suggests, I'm hoping the Cubs have a big August, in which they play mostly home games against non-contenders, and rest up their players down the stretch in September so we're fresh for the playoffs

Cubs mid-season review

I meant to do this a few days ago, given the baseball-starvation period that was the All-Star break, but here's my recap of the first half and a look forward.

Record: 57-38 (Tied with LAA for best in baseball)

Runs Scored: 507
Runs Allowed: 401
Pythagorean Projection: 57.9 - 37.1
Difference: -0.9
3rd Order Runs Scored: 475
3rd Order Runs Allowed:406
Pythagorean Projection: 54.5 - 40.5
Difference: 2.5

Odds of making playoffs (3rd order wins): 92%
Odds of making playoffs (PECOTA): 94%

Offense: The Cubs can score some runs. They've scored the most runs in the National League - even more than Philly's homer-happy lineup in their homer-happy park, and are second only to Texas in all of MLB. For all the Soriano haters out there, we've really missed him for the past month. All that playing time that went to the likes of Reed Johnson (should only be used vs Lefties) and EPatt/Murton/DeRosa was not nearly the production we see out of that slot...and the defense made Soriano's occasional lapses look less bad. DeRosa's bat plays well as a 2B, but as a LF he's adequate at best offensively and defensively. However, we didn't lose too much with Fontenot filling in for DeRosa (though I still wish that we saw more Cedeno). Cwyer's post over on GROTA has changed my mind about Fontenot - he's given us a decent bat (with pop) and great defense at 2B when he has started. Combine this with Cedeno reverting to 2006 Cedeno (instead of the flashes of Future Cedeno that we saw at the beginning of the season) and Fontenot has been much more valuable than I would have cared to admit even a week ago. My biggest knock against him is still his lack of positional flexibility...If he could play SS we could spin Cedeno for something decent. Speaking of SS, I remain in the anti-Riot camp. He's Jeter-esque in his overrated ness, but also Jeter-esque in that he's so overrated by a segment of fans that he's underrated. Riot's main deficiency is his defense - much like Jeter he has terrible range. Offensively, like Jeter he's been posting a great OBP (for this year at least)...however UNLIKE Jeter he has no power whatsoever. If he could hit a few doubles he would be much more valuable. Dome, however, is the player I am most worried about in the lineup. He just looks exhausted, and needs to make some adjustments. It looks like the league has figured him out, at least for now. We don't really have anyone adequate to spell him right now either, due to our lack of OF depth, and the fact that Reed Johnson should only play vs lefties. (Of course, he could spell him vs lefties, but he might need more time). I hope he turns it around...at least Lou has been putting him in the second spot more often of late. Hopefully that will continue when Soriano gets back. Also, for the record, I am eating all sorts of crow over Edmonds. Way to go, Hendry!

On the pitching side, I'm feeling pretty good. Even with the addition of Harden, I think that Z+Harden isn't as good as Sheets-Sabathia. However, Dempter+Lilly is light years better than any combination of Parra/Bush/McClung/Suppan, which easily gives the Cubs an overall advantage rotation wise. I'm still a little worried about the bullpen...Kerry's hurting right now with this weird blister problem, but I think he'll be okay. As before, the key member of our bullpen is Carlos "White Castle" Marmol. I think he's definitely showing signs of overwork - for more evidence see this hardball times article. We had hoped that a little rest over the ASB would unfatigue his arm, but he ended up pitching in the game (though by how late he went in, clearly Lou did NOT want him to pitch. Dempster pitched on 1 day's rest long before Marmol ever came in). I didn't see the game (radio only here), but the buzz was that he had his White Castle slider back, although he didn't seem like he was 100% yet. As for the rest of the bullpen...they've all been remarkably pedestrian. I have a strong feeling that Gaudin fills Howry's old role as setup man, especially if Marmol continues to struggle. Lou's biggest problem by far this year, aside from overusing Marmol, is not getting enough out of his relievers. We have lots of guys who could be classified as 'long relievers' - Lieber, Marshall, Wuertz, Gaudin. But rarely have they pitched more than one inning - especially when they need to soak up innings when we have big leads and don't need to burn the rest of the pen.

I think the overall team slump we had in June can be attributed to a bunch of injuries happening at the same time (Z, Johnson, Soriano, Edmonds was banged up, etc). We're only a .500 team since Soriano's injury, and desperately need him back. It's going to be a fun race down the stretch with the Brewers and the somehow still in it Cards. Can't wait to be at Wrigley on Sep 20th! (second to last regular season home game, vs the Cards!)

Greg Maddux

Al's post over on Bleed Cubbie Blue made the case for the Cubs adding Greg Maddux. Despite my post the other day about the Cubs pitching depth, I think this is the right move (for the right price). If we can move Murton for him, that would be great. If we could move Jason Marquis, that would be especially great. The Padres aren't going anywhere this year...they have needs at pretty much every position. Murton has no role at all on our current team, with Soriano and Dome blocking him for the next few years, and Marquis...ugh. Really though, from a statistical standpoint Maddux isn't too different from Marquis. Why not score mad points with the fans and bring him back? Making a run to the playoffs (and hopefully the WS) with Maddux would be a great story to close out his career. I think Murton + Marquis for Maddux (and maybe a throw-in) would be a totally fine trade...the Pads would get several cost-controlled years of a young outfielder and an innings eater (albeit with a big salary), and we'll be in the exact same situation pitching wise that we were before. We won't be stunting the growth of our young starters either - I don't think Gallagher is ready yet and I'm still not a big believer in Marshall. Hopefully Hill turns himself around, and we have a staff that looks like this down the stretch.

Zambrano
Lilly
Dempster
Hill
Maddux

Wood
Marmol
Howry
Wuertz
Eyre
Ascanio
Lieber


That's a freaking good pitching staff - Howry usually gets better in the second half, and I'm a big believer in Wuertz. Ascanio has the arm to stick in the bullpen as well.

Cubs quarter season review

Record: 27-17

Runs Scored: 255
Runs Allowed: 184
Pythagorean Projection: 28.7 - 15.3
Difference: -1.7
3rd Order Runs Scored: 231
3rd Order Runs Allowed:182
Pythagorean Projection: 27 - 17
Difference: 0

Odds of making playoffs (3rd order wins): 77%
Odds of making playoffs (PECOTA): 78%

Things are looking pretty good for the Cubs right now, despite the fact that their pitching situation still has not settled down. They are clearly the class of the NL central, and the offense is performing like it should have last year. Remember, the Cubs won the division last year despite the fact that none of our offensive superstars had true 'star' seasons. This year, Derrek Lee has come back to form (though chances are we'll never see his 2005 numbers again). Soriano remains his streaky self, demonstrating as recently as last week how hot he can get and as recently as last month how cold he can get. Dome has been a great addition to the lineup...though his numbers clearly show that he should be batting second, not fifth. It's hard to top a .416 OBP!! Ramirez has bumped his OBP up as well, though his power numbers remain down so far. Continuing this trend, DeRosa has improved his OBP by another 25 points and done a fantastic job of knocking out fearsome middle of the lineup in. Riot has quieted (temporarily) his doubters by his offensive output, though his defense still leaves much to be desired.

But, the two real stories, offense-wise, are in center field and at catcher. Soto has been the MVP of the team this year - offering top shelf offense at a premium position. Soto is clearly the best catcher in the NL right now - he has 80 points of OPS on Brian McCann, the next highest NL catcher, and is 8th overall in the NL in OPS. His defense behind the plate has been decent as well. He represents a huge upgrade over the black hole that was the catcher position last year, and is one of the big reasons why the Cubs are in first place. Speaking of black holes, however, we still do have a problem in CF. Pie has been mismanaged quite badly, from an organizational standpoint. Somewhere along the line he was labeled a AAAA player, and the only way to disprove that is to, well, play in the major leagues. I thought Reed Johnson was a good signing at the time, and still do feel that way. However, it is clear that he is not an everyday player right now. But, he hits lefties well and can play CF, which is exactly what we needed as a platoon partner for Pie. What was not needed was playing him against righties, whom he does not hit as well. Having an OBP (.340) higher than your slugging (.326) is never a good thing, unless it is considerably higher than league average (see Fukodome, whose SLG is higher, but not by a ton). It doesn't help Johnson either that his OBP is largely driven by a large number of HPBs, which is quite flukish. There are two ideal situations as to how this situation plays out:

1. (More Likely) Pie picks up whatever Lou was teaching him with his swing, tears up AAA yet again, and gets called up due to the fact that Edmonds has been quickly released, as it is obvious he has nothing left.

2. (Very Much Less Likely) Edmonds plays like a shadow of his former self...rather than the shambling corpse of his former self that he probably is, and we play this same game with Pie next year. There are rumors floating around that a calf injury that Edmonds suffered in ST was what was holding him back...but color me skeptical. Of course, Edmonds will probably get hurt again, and hopefully Pie can step in and win the job he earned back in spring training for good.

It just doesn't make sense to me why we don't play him. With the offense we have, his struggling bat doesn't really hurt the team that much, and his Gold Glove quality work in CF certainly has some value (no other outfielder on our team is even close to his class). Edmonds was released by the Padres, who are hurting badly for any warm body that can play center, and it's not like they are the Pittsburgh Pirates (Depodesta works for them!).

As far as pitching goes, we have a lot of depth...but it's shallow depth (if that makes sense). Z and Lilly are clearly solid pitchers (though Z still isn't really an 'ace'). Everyone else though...meh. The good thing is that the rest of the cubs starting staff *does* belong in the major leagues...but don't really have high ceilings. Dempster is at best a 4th starter - someone who can give you innings but will get knocked around from time to time. Suddenly he's developed into a ground ball pitcher, and managed to keep the ball in the park, which has dropped his ERA considerably but a .220 BABIP is impossible to maintain. I'm happy to see Gallagher in the rotation, as he does have some upside...but again, I don't project him to move into the front of a rotation anytime soon. He's certainly better than Jason Marquis, who is definitely a fifth starter. Lou seems to recognize this, and seems to have begun skipping his starts when the Cubs have off days. He'd probably have been released for one of the following candidates were it not for his untradeable contract. Lieber, his 4 hr performance notwithstanding, has shown that he too has something left in the tank, but he clearly won't be a front of the rotation guy anytime soon. In the minors we currently have Rich Hill, who has #3 starter stuff and will fit back in nicely once he finds the strike zone again. Hopefully there's nothing wrong with this back. Marshall has had success before but I think he really does qualify as a AAAA pitcher. He can't pitch for too long without being overexposed.

So, not that I've bashed most of the Cubs pitching staff, what's the silver lining here? We still have major league quality pitchers ready to step in whenever a spot opens up in the rotation for whatever reason (injury, weather, etc). Most teams end up throwing unprepared guys or people that don't really belong in the big leauges in the back end of their rotation, which lowers the standards for how people view the role. Sure, Sean Marshall could start for many, many teams. But if you're rounding out the back of the rotation for the Orioles or Marlins, you have to take the term 'major league starter' with a large grain of salt.

As for the bullpen, I'm happy with how it's performed. Howry hasn't looked good, but everyone else has been okay. I'm concerned that Marmol's arm might fall off before the season ends, but he used to start...and even if he does break down I think a small DL stint would just give him some rest before coming back to blow everyone away in the fall. Wood is looking better now that he's tinkered with that slider of his; it's looking very tight - has a lot of bite again. It's been great to see Wuertz pitching well of late too - he's put up zeros in multiple-inning outings in each of the last two games - finally finding the plate with his good slider.

Here's hoping everything keeps rolling along - and that Marmol gets a well-deserved spot in the all-star game!

Bullpen Breakdown

For the most part, the people in the bullpen are pretty set. Here are the locks

Marmol
Wood
Howry
Eyre
Wuertz

I think we can probably add Pignatiello to this list too, considering how terrible Cotts has looked so far

The last slot is the long reliever - I expect this will be Marshall or Dempster (if he loses out on a rotation spot and we don't trade Marquis).

The question that remains is what everyone's roles will be. Clearly Marmol is our best reliever, but Lou used him the way you're supposed to use your best reliever last season, i.e., putting him in to kill rallies, or to face the heart of the lineup late in the game (but not the 9th inning). I'm hoping that he remains in that role, though I'm worried that he might get overworked. Lou really leaned hard on Marmol last season, but luckily he only got worked during the stretch as opposed to the full season. He showed he still had it in the winter leagues, so maybe he is a little more durable than the typical reliever.

My guess is that Wood will end up with the closer's role, but I bet it will be more of a classical 'Nasty Boys' style of bullpen, where Wood is favored for saves but not the mandatory choice if he's been working for several days.

Bullpen predictions
Wood (Primary Closer) -28 saves, 31 save opps, 60 IP, 65 K, 30 BB, 3.20 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Howry (Backup Closer) - 9 saves, 10 save opps, 78 IP, 70 K, 15 BB, 3.48 ERA, 1.23 WHIP
Marmol (Fireman) - 2 saves, 2 save opps, 88 IP, 115 K, 40BB, 2.67 ERA, 1.11 WHIP
Wuertz - 70 IP, 72 K, 30 BB, 3.78 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
Eyre - 50 IP, 45 K, 25 BB, 4.12 ERA, 1.39 WHIP
Pignatiello - 35 IP, 20 K, 12 BB, 3.98 ERA, 1.28 WHIP
Marshall (as reliever) - 63 IP, 52 K, 28 BB, 4.84 ERA, 1.44 WHIP

Pignatiello will look pretty good if you isolate his stats against lefties...most LOOGYs have deceptively good statlines because for the most part they are only brought in where they are expected to succeed (see Will Ohman, 2005). The reason why his numbers aren't even lower is that I expect him to pitch in some garbage time as well against a more general sample of batters.

Rotation breakdown

I've been reading the community projections over at Bleed Cubbie Blue and there is far more optimism with regards to our starting pitching than I feel is warranted. Let's look at who we have

Locks for the rotation
Carlos Zambrano - Most starting pitchers are pretty consistent. If they stink, they tend to get hit hard. If they're good, they tend to pitch well. Every pitcher tends to have a fluke start or two, but Z's swings seem to take much longer. Look at last year - he was terrible in April and May, great in June and July, terrible again in August, and great down the stretch in September. He ended up with a 3.9 ERA, which is good, but certainly not ace-worthy. Other worrying Zambrano trends include his rising walk rate and his huge workload over the past few seasons. That said, I think Z should bounce back this year. He'll still probably have a terrbile stretch or two but I don't think they will be as long. My guess is that he'll end up at around

18-11, 190 Ks, 100 BBs, a 3.5 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP

Overall this isn't ace-quality numbers, but when he is on, he should be pretty damn near unstoppable.

Ted Lilly - Lilly was a nice surprise last year, and for several stretches (see above) was the best pitcher on the team. That said, I think he's going to backslide a little bit this year. He's still a flyball pitcher pitching in a fickle park. When he gets hit, he gets hit hard. My guess is

12-11. 155 Ks, 80 BBs, 4.3 ERA, 1.3 WHIP

Rich Hill - I'm not as high on Hill as many Cubs fans, though I think he will be a good pitcher. It's really a matter of whether you think he's a 1-2 type pitcher (no) or a 3-4 type pitcher (yes). I'd probably lean more towards a third guy. Hill's got a wicked curveball and a decent fastball, and it's tough to get by with only 2 real pitches. Like Lilly, he's a flyball pitcher, so he doesn't really have Wrigley working for him. On the other hand, his stuff is better than Lilly's. Hill showed a lot of growth last season. He kicked ass in the minors, but somehow forgot to throw strikes when he got to the majors in 2006. Heading back to the minors after being thrown under the bus by Dusty Baker, he was called back up in August and seemed a different pitcher (Pre callup: 1.96 WHIP, after callup: 1.05). He looked like he had settled down last season too: his WHIP was 1.19, which is certainly decent. He gave up a fair amount of homers but it seemed like all of them were solo shots. Anyway, I expect him to improve a little bit more as he gets more experience and enters his prime. I'm guessing

15-8, 200 Ks, 58 BB, 3.71 ERA, 1.16 WHIP.

The (best of the?) rest
Jon Lieber - This was a great signing for Hendry, and surprisingly for this offseason, seemed to come out of left field. It seemed like everyone forgot about Lieber after he missed the second half of last year with foot problems. He was great for the Cubs in the past, and put up league-average numbers in a few seasons with Philly. The thing I like most about Lieber is that he rarely walks anyone, and I think that this is why he's the most likely out of everyone else I list here to make the rotation. Nothing drives Lou crazier than pitchers who can't throw strikes. He's more of a ground ball pitcher, but that's a pretty neutral factor with this Cubs defense. The advantage he gets from moving from Philly's hitters' paradise will likely be offset by the lack of Rollins and Utley vacuuming up grounders. The Cubs are much better on the corners, but up the middle is really what counts. Anyway, I'm guessing

7-7, 87 Ks, 20 BB, 4.68 ERA, 1.32 WHIP in 20 games.

Jason Marquis - Ugh. He looked great in the first half last season and was awful in the second half, which seems to be a trend for him. I've never really figured him out...he's a groundball pitcher that somehow coughs up a ton of home runs. That K/BB ratio isn't something to write home about either....unless you're writing that it sucks. My hope is that he is traded as a part of the never-ending saga of the Brian Roberts deal. If not though, this is what I would expect (if he started the year as the 5th starter):

8-12, 90 K, 75 BB, 4.98 ERA, 1.45 WHIP

Ryan Dempster - Apparently he's been impressing in bullpen sessions. The file's still out on him until the end of spring to see what he really has as a starter. That said, I actually feel shockingly optimistic about Demp. All the data seems to be pointing the other way - he only had one good season as a starter (in 2000). After his TJ surgery the Cubs tried starting him again, and it was a miserable failure. Luckily he turned in the best season of his career after he was moved to the bullpen (if you just look at his relief stats)...he was pretty unstoppable. He didn't look quite so good last year in the closer's role, however. He did his best to try to kill Ron, but luckily for all of us he did not succed. Despite all this (1 good season as a starter, declining as a reliever), I'm inclined to side with Demp. It just feels right. So, per Stephen Colbert, it's gotta be true. My guess (with a full season - no Marquis!):

13-10, 135 Ks, 75 BBs, 4.51 ERA, 1.38 WHIP.

Note that my optimism doesn't mean that he will revert to 2000 Dempster. But I think he will be a little better than league average.

The Longshots
Sean Marshall - Everyone loves to look at his stats (e.g., Rotoworld, for one) and wonder why he's behind all the competition above? Really it's just a matter of talent. Marshall's stuff is not great, and you could see other teams figuring him out as the season progressed. His ERA continued to creep upward as the season went on, and the debate is whether it was overexposure or just fatigure from the innings he pitched. Plus, I don't think having 3 not-overpowering leftys in our lineup is a good idea anyway. Even though their styles are different, it just gives too many looks. Here's the projection as if he won and more or less kept the 5th starter spot

7-14, 90K, 50 BB, 5.12 ERA, 1.42 WHIP

He'll be hit harder as the season goes on. He might stick around as the long man, which would be OK with me.

Sean Gallagher - The other Sean has more promise, but I don't think he's *quite* ready yet. I doubt he wins a rotation spot out of ST, but I do expect him to be the front-runner to be called up if someone goes down/sucks in the Lieber/Marquis/Dempster trio. He's got 3-4 potential, but needs a little more time to refine it. I think he gets called up during the summer for a few spot starts, with an outside chance that he sticks in the back end of the rotation down the stretch. Prediction:

3-3, 47Ks, 29 BB, 4.44 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, (10 GS, 58 IP)



Overall I predict the starts to break down as
Z - 34
Lilly - 33
Hill - 30
Lieber - 20
Dempster - 27
Gallagher - 11
Marquis/Marshall/Hart - 7

Lineups

I wasn't planning on starting my deluge of spring baseball related nonsense until the first spring training game (Thursday!!) at the earliest, or maybe not even until March. But I've just got baseball on the brain.

The latest scuttlebutt is that Lou is thinking of batting Fukudome third. Yes! Sort of. This is definitely better than batting him fifth - we need high OBP in front of Lee and Ramirez. I still think second is the best place for him. Lou's main issue in dealing with all this top of the lineup juggling is the need to break up Soriano, Lee, and Ramirez (who are all right handed). Combine this with the will-they-or-won't-they Brian Roberts trade, many fans have thought up many permutations of possible lineups. Here is the one I like best. Note that this assumes

1) Soriano can run full out
2) We trade for Roberts

Lineup
2B Roberts (S)
LF Soriano (R)
RF Fukudome (L)
1B Lee (R)
3B Ramirez (R)
C Soto (R)
2B DeRosa (R)
CF Pie (L)
P

This does the job of breaking up our Right handed hitters, and keeps our OBP and speed at the top of the lineup. Soriano can still steal etc like he apparently wants to, and when he isn't swinging away he's fast enough that the bunt game works more in his favor than most players. We have two of our best OBP players in front of hte big sluggers too.

This assumes that someone is smart enough to remember that Derosa can play SS. Maybe not quite as well as Theriot/Cedeno, but it's not like they are known for flashing the leather themselves. If Theriot does play, put him in the 8 hole and move Pie up.

If we don't get Roberts due to various Orioles tomfoolery, I would prefer this

LF Sori (R)
RF Fuku (L)
1B Lee (R)
3B ARam (R)
C Soto (R)
2B Dero (R)
CF Pie (L)
SS Riot (L)
P

Of course, hitting in the 5 spot might be a little too much pressure for Soto. He should be pretty good though.

All said, what we will most likely have will be

LF Sori
SS Riot
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Fuku
C Soto
2B Dero
CF Pie

Which isn't bad. I don't think Lou will actually put Fuku in the 3-hole due to the fact that he (sadly) seems set on having Theriot in the 2-hole and the aforementioned lefty issue. He might flip Fuku and Ramirez which would give a moderate boost. I still feel a lot better about this lineup than last year's - we've improved at C and RF and Pie should show some improvement too. Even if he doesn't, his glove should still keep him in the lineup.