Making the most of the Scrap Heap

Let's take a look at the Cubs' collection of scrappy middle infielders, all of whom have seen much more playing time due to Ramirez's injury. Note, per media parlance, Bobby Scales cannot be a 'scrappy' middle infielder - we'll just have to call him 'athletic' instead.

The projections here are taken from the Updated ZiPS projections on Fangraphs, which take into account performance so far this year for the end of season line and as inputs to the rest of season projection.

Player	Slash Line	wOBA	K%	Projected Slash Line	Projected wOBA	Career K%
Fontenot	.193/.290/.361	.289	21.8%	.235/.317/.392	.315	20.1%
Miles	.207/.255/.272	.243	15.2%	.255/.300/.319	.282	10.3%
Scales	.286/.429/.536	.421	28.6%	.268/.349/.414	.338	N/A
Freel	.120/.267/.120	.209	28%	.235/.321/.336	.303	17.4%
Theriot	.276/.343/.454	.351	16.4%	.281/.348/.397	.336	10.8%

Fun fact: Theriot is projected to hit 4 more HR by ZiPS.

The clear 'winner' in these projections is Bobby Scales, who should be playing every day with Ramirez out. Fontenot has been terribly unlucky (more on that in a moment), but even when readjusted for luck it appears that he isn't nearly as good as some of those optimistic .340+ wOBA projections were giving him. To be fair though, ZiPS was the most down on Fontenot of any of the projection systems on Fangraphs. From what I recall PECTOA was really down on him, but I don't have my annual with me here in NM. Miles and Freel have been especially awful. Freel will probably be sent packing when Ramiriez comes back, though it would behoove the Cubs to give Scales and Fontenot some reps at SS, because Miles's ability to play that position is the only thing keeping him on the roster.

There is some reason to suspect that Fontenot (especially) will bounce back - he's had some terrible luck. Looking at the numbers:

Player	BABIP (2009)	BABIP (Careeer)	LD% (2009)	LD% (Career)
Fontenot	.205	.315	11.7	19.7
Miles	.244	.313	23.4	19.9

I left off Scales and Freel for sample size reasons, and because we don't have any career data for Scales. It actually looks like Miles has been even more unlucky than Fontenot - despite a LD% significantly above his career norms, Miles has a terrible BABIP.

What this boils down to is that even though Fontenot doesn't appaer to be nearly as good as we were thinking he would be going into the season, he's not *THIS* awful. It's pretty tough to sustain a .205 BABIP, and it's not like he's hacking any more than usual either. The Cubs should run him out there against every RHP, and Scales too.

Project-a-tron part 5 - why trading Mark DeRosa was inevitable (and a great idea)

2009 Projections:

Player	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	wOBA	UZR	WAR	Salary
Fontenot	550	14	.352	.439	.348	+6	2.8	~$0.5
Mark DeRosa	620	14	.353	.423	.342	-5	1.9	$5.5

(salary data from Cot's)

What's the argument here? Most of DeRosa's perceived value last year was in his ability to play multiple positions. Really though, what made DeRosa valuable was that he had a great backup in Fontenot to fill in for him at 2b while he was moving around the diamond. If Cedeno (or true-talent Aaron Miles) had been his primary backup, DeRosa's ability to move around the diamond would not have much value at all, as you would be choosing to have a replacement level batter at either 2b or at DeRosa's 'supersub' position.

The other thing to remember is that while DeRosa's output looks great relative to other 2b, it's not quite as valuable when moved to other parts of the field, from a purely offensive standpoint at least. His defense certainly isn't helping him much at 2b either. In fact, since it appears that he can play decent defense in RF (a UZR of ~+6 based on regressing extra innings to the mean), he actually has more value there (2.2 WAR) than at 2b (1.9 WAR), despite the fact that his bat does not contribute as much compared to a replacement RF. Strangely enough, he put up good defensive numbers at 3b with the Cubs despite several poor performances there in the past.

Of course, trading DeRosa leaves the Cubs with a player that has less positional flexibility (and a lousier backup), and one who has a much bigger platoon split than Derosa (who actually hits lefties quite well). However, trading DeRosa helped free up $5mm that went towards signing Milton Bradley, which was definitely a wise investment, as well as stockpiling minor league arms. Hendry made the right decision selling high on DeRosa, and I think this was his second best transaction of the offseason (which enabled the best one - signing Bradley)