Cubs quarter season review

Record: 27-17

Runs Scored: 255
Runs Allowed: 184
Pythagorean Projection: 28.7 - 15.3
Difference: -1.7
3rd Order Runs Scored: 231
3rd Order Runs Allowed:182
Pythagorean Projection: 27 - 17
Difference: 0

Odds of making playoffs (3rd order wins): 77%
Odds of making playoffs (PECOTA): 78%

Things are looking pretty good for the Cubs right now, despite the fact that their pitching situation still has not settled down. They are clearly the class of the NL central, and the offense is performing like it should have last year. Remember, the Cubs won the division last year despite the fact that none of our offensive superstars had true 'star' seasons. This year, Derrek Lee has come back to form (though chances are we'll never see his 2005 numbers again). Soriano remains his streaky self, demonstrating as recently as last week how hot he can get and as recently as last month how cold he can get. Dome has been a great addition to the lineup...though his numbers clearly show that he should be batting second, not fifth. It's hard to top a .416 OBP!! Ramirez has bumped his OBP up as well, though his power numbers remain down so far. Continuing this trend, DeRosa has improved his OBP by another 25 points and done a fantastic job of knocking out fearsome middle of the lineup in. Riot has quieted (temporarily) his doubters by his offensive output, though his defense still leaves much to be desired.

But, the two real stories, offense-wise, are in center field and at catcher. Soto has been the MVP of the team this year - offering top shelf offense at a premium position. Soto is clearly the best catcher in the NL right now - he has 80 points of OPS on Brian McCann, the next highest NL catcher, and is 8th overall in the NL in OPS. His defense behind the plate has been decent as well. He represents a huge upgrade over the black hole that was the catcher position last year, and is one of the big reasons why the Cubs are in first place. Speaking of black holes, however, we still do have a problem in CF. Pie has been mismanaged quite badly, from an organizational standpoint. Somewhere along the line he was labeled a AAAA player, and the only way to disprove that is to, well, play in the major leagues. I thought Reed Johnson was a good signing at the time, and still do feel that way. However, it is clear that he is not an everyday player right now. But, he hits lefties well and can play CF, which is exactly what we needed as a platoon partner for Pie. What was not needed was playing him against righties, whom he does not hit as well. Having an OBP (.340) higher than your slugging (.326) is never a good thing, unless it is considerably higher than league average (see Fukodome, whose SLG is higher, but not by a ton). It doesn't help Johnson either that his OBP is largely driven by a large number of HPBs, which is quite flukish. There are two ideal situations as to how this situation plays out:

1. (More Likely) Pie picks up whatever Lou was teaching him with his swing, tears up AAA yet again, and gets called up due to the fact that Edmonds has been quickly released, as it is obvious he has nothing left.

2. (Very Much Less Likely) Edmonds plays like a shadow of his former self...rather than the shambling corpse of his former self that he probably is, and we play this same game with Pie next year. There are rumors floating around that a calf injury that Edmonds suffered in ST was what was holding him back...but color me skeptical. Of course, Edmonds will probably get hurt again, and hopefully Pie can step in and win the job he earned back in spring training for good.

It just doesn't make sense to me why we don't play him. With the offense we have, his struggling bat doesn't really hurt the team that much, and his Gold Glove quality work in CF certainly has some value (no other outfielder on our team is even close to his class). Edmonds was released by the Padres, who are hurting badly for any warm body that can play center, and it's not like they are the Pittsburgh Pirates (Depodesta works for them!).

As far as pitching goes, we have a lot of depth...but it's shallow depth (if that makes sense). Z and Lilly are clearly solid pitchers (though Z still isn't really an 'ace'). Everyone else though...meh. The good thing is that the rest of the cubs starting staff *does* belong in the major leagues...but don't really have high ceilings. Dempster is at best a 4th starter - someone who can give you innings but will get knocked around from time to time. Suddenly he's developed into a ground ball pitcher, and managed to keep the ball in the park, which has dropped his ERA considerably but a .220 BABIP is impossible to maintain. I'm happy to see Gallagher in the rotation, as he does have some upside...but again, I don't project him to move into the front of a rotation anytime soon. He's certainly better than Jason Marquis, who is definitely a fifth starter. Lou seems to recognize this, and seems to have begun skipping his starts when the Cubs have off days. He'd probably have been released for one of the following candidates were it not for his untradeable contract. Lieber, his 4 hr performance notwithstanding, has shown that he too has something left in the tank, but he clearly won't be a front of the rotation guy anytime soon. In the minors we currently have Rich Hill, who has #3 starter stuff and will fit back in nicely once he finds the strike zone again. Hopefully there's nothing wrong with this back. Marshall has had success before but I think he really does qualify as a AAAA pitcher. He can't pitch for too long without being overexposed.

So, not that I've bashed most of the Cubs pitching staff, what's the silver lining here? We still have major league quality pitchers ready to step in whenever a spot opens up in the rotation for whatever reason (injury, weather, etc). Most teams end up throwing unprepared guys or people that don't really belong in the big leauges in the back end of their rotation, which lowers the standards for how people view the role. Sure, Sean Marshall could start for many, many teams. But if you're rounding out the back of the rotation for the Orioles or Marlins, you have to take the term 'major league starter' with a large grain of salt.

As for the bullpen, I'm happy with how it's performed. Howry hasn't looked good, but everyone else has been okay. I'm concerned that Marmol's arm might fall off before the season ends, but he used to start...and even if he does break down I think a small DL stint would just give him some rest before coming back to blow everyone away in the fall. Wood is looking better now that he's tinkered with that slider of his; it's looking very tight - has a lot of bite again. It's been great to see Wuertz pitching well of late too - he's put up zeros in multiple-inning outings in each of the last two games - finally finding the plate with his good slider.

Here's hoping everything keeps rolling along - and that Marmol gets a well-deserved spot in the all-star game!

Big fella

Here is Zeus, the big Cocker that we adopted last weekend













He has a handsome face - Jennie and I both thought his face looked kind of like a golden retriever's. He's already lost a lot of weight since he was rescued but still has a ways to go. He was 62 pounds and had a hard time moving when he was first picked up. He's down to 52 or so now, and probably needs to lose another 15 pounds or so. I don't think it will be too hard...he loooooves going on walks. Kira has been kind of taken aback by his enthusiasm on walks He can be a real freight train, just chugging along at the end of the leash. He's gotten to the point where he can jump up to lean on things (like chairs, your legs, etc) but can't jump himself off the ground. I think he'll be a real jumper, and will give Kira a run for her money for the title of highest energy dog (at least on walks).

We do think he might be partially deaf, as he doesn't really respond to his name at all. Or maybe he just ignores his name...it's something we'll have to work on. I'm pretty sure he does hear me when I whistle.

Applied for adoption over the weekend

After Bear was adopted last weekend we were pretty bummed, but still looking to get another Cocker. We loved the look of both Angel and Zeus, but decided we'd wait until the next time that the 'available for adoption' page updated before filling out the application. Sure enough, at the end of the week a new (old) dog appeared - it was Gracie, who had been in rescue for a while and was adopted a few months ago. Sadly, through no fault of her own, she was returned to rescue because her new owner developed some serious medical conditions.

Here are the candidates

Honorable Mention: Angel



We fell in love with her story - she was a stray that was picked up by a shelter in Illinois. Her hair was so badly matted that when they went to groom her, skin came off with the hair. All through this she was giving kisses to the groomer, so happy to be taken care of by somebody again. She is an older dog, and Cocker rescue decided that she would be a bad match for us since she really needs to have someone home pretty much all day, since she needs to be taken out fairly often.

1b. Zeus



He just looks like a big old clown. We have no issues with adopting seniors, and he looks like a real nice fellow. Our only concerns right now are when we go home - Rhett is pretty defensive-agressive and while he is much bigger than Kira, he and Zeus would probably be more likely to have issues, both by being male and the fact that Zeus is much bigger than Rhett. He also doesn't get along with cats so there might be trouble with him and Zoe if we visit my parents' house.

1a. Gracie



She seems like such a sweetheart, and is as pretty as Kira. We like her a little better since she's female (see comments about Zeus above) and is known to get along with dogs and small children. Her previous bio suggested that she was a little rascal (i.e. liked to get into the garbage, toilet paper, that kind of stuff) but that's no big deal, so long as she isn't the type to chew on cords or shoes. She's also quite the escape artist apparently - she could give Kira a run for her money (she was able to jump baby gates with ease when we first brought her back to Waterford). I think she's our frontrunner right now, but we would be happy with either of them.

Beef Stew of Deliciousness +1

Last weekend we picked up some green beans and pearl onions at the farmers market, but never really got around to cooking them. I was thinking of doing a balsamic onion + chicken recipe that I've made before with good success, but wasn't really in the mood for it. Jennie suggested that we get some stew meat and make a beef stew...good suggestion. We went to our new favorite grocery store (the Jenifer St. Market - which has a FANTASTIC meat selection) and picked up some stew meat and a few other things that we had run out of, and I got cooking.

I based this on Tyler Florence's Ultimate Beef Stew Recipe, with a few changes. First off, I only used 1 1/2 lbs of meat (since I was adding a ton of extra veggies). The recipe called for a ton of flour, but it seemed like a waste as it was only going to lightly coat the meat. I only used 1/2 c as opposed to the 2 cups in the recipe. I used some of our dwindling supply of magic Steak Salt to season it, and I think the meat especially turned out very well. I used the rest of our bottle (3/4 or so) of cheap red wine for the pre-marinade. I know the rule of thumb is that you shouldn't cook with wine you wouldn't drink...but I don't drink wine anyway (especially red wine), and it turned out okay. Some of the people commenting on the recipe thought that the wine made the recipe very bitter...they just probably used the wrong wine. I also left out the grated orange peel, which many people did not like in the recipe either. On top of the potatoes and carrots called for in the recipe, I threw in our bunch of french beans (very tasty), the last of my creminis (my current culinary obsession - thanks Keith!), and half of our big bag of pearl onions. I love the way pearl onions taste, but I'll be damned if they aren't a pain in the ass to prepare their skins are pretty resilient. I forgot to add the peas, but all in all this was quite the tasty dish. Definitely a make again.

The main issue with it (also mentioned in the comments for the recipe) is that it doesn't thicken the way that the recipe suggests (or really, at all). Maybe if the full 2c of flour worked their way into the pot it might, but if it's just being used to coat the meat there's no way you can get all of it in (I had tons extra and I only used 1/2 c). I ended up adding some slurry as it went on to thicken it up a little, but it was still a little soupy when it was ready to be served.

Weekend Minutiae

Not a lot going on, just some updates on what's going on here at Chez J+J:

• We decided that we're going to get another dog. Soon. Here is a picture of the guy we have our eye on:
  
  
  
  His name is Bear right now (that's what the Rescue Org named him - he was a stray). We think we might name him Dmitri (Dima for short) to go along with Kira and the Russian-inspired names.
  
  As of right now there are 2 major roadblocks. First, we need to find out if our landlord will let us have a second dog. The second roadblock is my own idiocy. We were supposed to meet the dog we had our eye on this weekend at an event held by Shorewood Cocker Rescue. I thought it was on Sunday from noon to 3, but we discovered at around 3:30 PM on Saturday that it was in fact on SATURDAY from noon to 3 (plus, it was in Lake Geneva, which is 2 hours away, so it's not like we could have zipped over there and caught them).
  
  As I wrote this, I discovered a third roadblock - he got adopted this weekend. Dammit. So that's that. It's kind of cast a pallor over the weekend :(
  



• We saw Kids in the Hall: Live as We'll Ever Be at the Barrymore on Friday night with our friend Brian. It was hilarious, as expected. Jennie and I both admitted to each other a day or so before the show that Kevin was now our favorite member of the troupe (Dave held the top spot for quite some time). Lots of great sketches - the best of which was one where Dave was confiding his worry that his imaginary girlfriend might be cheating on him to Kevin, only to discover that Kevin had been imagining that she was having an affair with him. Shenanigans ensued.



• We went to the Farmers Market on a windy Satudray morning. Most of the vendors who actually put their awnings up spent a majority of the time holding on to the frames to prevent the wind from knocking them over. We got a pretty good haul - more delicious tomatoes and italian sausage (like last week), some good onions, spinach, cheese, pearl onions, eggs, applesauce, and some spring garlic. I added the spring garlic to my potato soup recipe last night, with some good results. It gave it a little more zest, even tastier than usual. My only disappointment was actually with a purchase from last week. I was excited for the market to be starting again, because one of hte stands makes amazing bacon. This time, when I went to get some they had options - hickory smoked or nitrite-free. I sprung for the nitrite-free bacon (it's what I've been buying at Woodman's and was pretty good). Big mistake - I didn't realize that it was uncured bacon. It tasted like fatty rubber. Super gross.



• I'm almost done with Series of Unfortunate Events - I'll write my review when I finish it. I just finished The Grim Grotto - the eleventh book of the series. It was pretty eventful. Jennie said that many loose ends were not tied up at the conclusion of the series, so I'm feeling suspense over what will be explained.



• I hit the bookstore today and picked up the beginnings of some stuff for my goal of learning some Chinese. I got the grammar book mentioned before and a big Chinese-English dictionary, along with How to Learn Any Language (on sale!). I've read the first 20 pages or so of the Language book and it's pretty fun to read so far. His views on language are a little different than mine - he stresses conversation over grammar, which I agree with objectively...but I feel that the structure of grammar is one of the main things that attracts me to language. That could just be because I don't travel very much, nor am I forced to communicate in anything but English...

Tex Tubbs and a classic pie

We hit up Tex Tubbs mexican restaurant on University Ave last night (after another disappointing aparment showing on the east side). It's a local mini-chain in Madison (it has only 2 locations) that serves american-style mexican food...though a lot closer to authentic than, say, Pedro's (or, ugh, Taco Bell, which I am proud to say I have still never eaten an actual meal from).

Tex Tubbs was pretty good - the chances of us going back to Pedro's again is pretty small between this restaurant and Pasquals (both delicious). Their menu was pretty varied - there were at least 5 or 6 things I could have ordered and been quite happy with. Jennie got some Fajitas (her usual) which she enjoyed, though she thinks she'll try something else next time, given the variety. I got the 'El Pastor' burrito, which was quite tasty. It had a mixture of smoked pulled pork (very tender!) marinated in some red chili sauce with pineapples, and beans, etc. Everything came with some pico de gallo, which I usually do not like (given my aversion to tomatoes, which I am slowly getting over), but I had no problem with it this time (the cilantro in it tasted fresh, which was big).

My only complaint was that they were out of tortilla chips (what mexican restaurant runs out of chips?!), so instead of chips and salsa we ordered a Frito Pie, which we've read about but never eaten. It came in a opened frito bag (big plus) and tasted pretty good, though I don't think it would qualify as legit by Frito Pie snobs. I think I liked this better anyway.

Anyway, after that we headed home, and I made a Peach Blueberry pie, which was delicious. I put the crust in for a few minutes before filling it, which was a good move. I think the bottom crust wasn't cooked enough last time, and it made it a pain in the ass to cut up. We could get slices out of it just fine ~30 mins after baking this time, which really surprised me. I really had to make this tonight before our blueberries went bad. I've had crummy luck with fresh fruit lately (courtesy of shopping at Woodmans) - we got some INCREDIBLE blueberries a few weeks ago but since then they haven't been as good (or lasted as long). Same with the blueberries I got this time - they went bad in only a few days. Strangely enough though the strawberries have been keeping well though (I always have bad luck with them).

Awesome site of the day

I found a link in a Harball Times article today to a site called Fangraphs. At first look, it looks like your usual run of the mill baseball analysis site...except for these:



This tracks the win expectancy (supposedly live) for each team as a game goes on. This is too damn cool. I'm going to check it out during the Cubs game this afternoon.