Papelbon, continued

Jim Caple summarized my rambling point best by this statement in today's ESPN chat:

...the closer is the most overvalued position in baseball. Think of how many guys came out of nowhere to be effective closers (Eddie Guardado, JJ Putz, etc.) and you realize how replaceable that role is. A good pitcher is always more valuable than a closer. And don't give me how devastating it can be to lose a game in the ninth inning. Sure it hurts. But you remember the loss because it happened at the end of the game. No one remembers how many games you lose earlier because a mediocre starter dug you into an early hole in the second inning, then forced you burn out the bullpen for the next game.

Trifecta is in play

2 breaking news items for today that made me say "what?!"

1. The Red Sox confirmed that Papelbon is shifting back into the closer's role. I am shocked that any organization that employs Bill James would do this - Paps is clearly more valuable as a starter than a reliever, and while he is a fantastic relief ace, clearly he would be of more value to the team as a starter. The only way this would work out in their favor would be if whoever was option 2 was so awful that Papelbon's value as a starter would be less than the difference between him and this phantom reliever. Their relievers would certainly be good enough...certainly the difference between closer Papelbon and any of the Boston relivers is far, far less than the difference between starter Papelbon and Julian Tavarez (who is taking his place). With Papelbon in the rotation I had the Sox winning the division...now I'm not so sure.

2. Tubby Smith leaves Kentucky after 10 years to take a job at....Minnesota?!. I understand that things must have sucked for him at Kentucky, due to the racist tradition there left by the infamous Adolph Rupp. Still though, you figure he could have moved to a better job than perpetually mediocre Minnesota. Seriously, what the hell?

3. Third bit of news makes me happy instead of confused. Prior pitched today against major leaguers and had this stat line:

4IP 4H 1R 1ER 2BB 3SO 0HR and no extra base hits.

Maybe he will be an option for the 5th rotation spot after all. This improvment certainly shows he has more upside than the junk-balling Miller. I'm still not sure if Prior's injury risk is enough to say that he has more upside than Guzman at this point though. Still Prior/Guzman > Miller.

AL West Preview

I'm finally getting around to writing down my preseason thoughts...I meant to do each team but I'll be lucky to do each division. I'll start with the AL West, going from worst to first

4. Seattle Mariners (70-92)

Good lord, is Bill Bavasi trying to get himself fired? Let's recap the worst offseason moves:

1. Traded Fruto and Snelling for Vidro - an electric reliever prospect and a glass-man outfielder for a fading second baseman (who can't play 2B anymore) owed $12m over the next two years. Snelling may be a big injury risk, but he still would have made a better DH (and for much less money) than Vidro, who can't play 2b anymore. Vidro gets lots of credit as a player due to his position - a second baseman who hits 15 HRs is much more valuable than a DH that does the same. You know you're in trouble when your number 3 hitter is a punchless contact hitter.

2. Traded Rafael Soriano for Horacio Ramirez - again, a flamethrowing reliever for a mediocre pitcher with an injury history. At best, Ramirez is a 4th starter. At worst, he's a junk-baller who will have a hard time staying afloat in AAA.

Quality Players: Sexson, Johjima, Ichiro, Felix Hernandez
Holes: Lopez, Betancourt, the rest of the rotation
Concerns: Putz is injured and probably won't be nearly as effective as last season

3. Oakland A's (78-84)

I love the A's...but I think their window is closed (for now). Their only plus offensive force now is Nick Swisher, everyone else is average or below average (I don't think Piazza has much left in the tank, even as a DH). Similarly, their rotation is starting to run out of steam. If Harden can stay healthy for an entire season this win total can be notched up a few, but right now the only lights-out starter they have is Haren. I salute the A's for their years of success but their era has passed for now.

Quality Players: Swisher, Haren, Street, Bradley, Chavez (sort of)
Holes: Ellis, Kendall, Stewart
Concerns: Harden + Crosby are both glass men at this point. The back end of the rotation is pretty scary too.

2. Texas Rangers (83-79)

I have a hard time projecting this team...even without their bandbox ballpark they probably have the best offense outside of the Northeast Monetary Nexus. They have Mark Teixiera as the centerpiece of their offense and nearly everyone else is at least league average. Plus, for once they have *some* pitching. Padilla and Millwood will keep them in games and the rest of the staff has some upside...though I don't think McCarthy will pan out as well as Texas's staff will have hoped (look at that HR rate!)

Quality Players: Tex, Kinsler, Young, Lofton (underrated), Millwood, Padilla
Holes: Blalock
Concerns: McCarthy + Texas = lots of gopherballs.
Wild Card: Wilkerson and Sosa have Tremendous Upside Potential

1. Anaheim Angels (88-74)

In contrast to Texas, the Angels have the horses on the pitching side of the equation. Lackey is a bona fide ace, and Escobar and Santana are quality starters. When healthy, Colon and Weaver are also great. A (healthy) Anaheim rotation is easily the best in baseball. On the offensive side, they have lots of upside. Vlad is always solid, but the real keys to their season will be their amazing young middle infield of Stephen Drew and Howie Kendrick, along with breakout catcher Mike Napoli. If Colon and Weaver manage to make 75% of their starts, watch out.

Quality Players: Kendrick, Drew, Napoli, Cabrera, Vlad, Lackey, Escobar, Santana
Holes: Anderson, Kotchman/whoever is on 1b
Concerns: Gary Matthews Jr will regress to the fourth outfielder that he actually is.

Happenings

3 baseball related items of note this week

1. I got this year's Baseball Prospectus, chock full of more baseball information than I can ever read. They're pretty down on the Cubs this year, though they expect them to improve. The gist of the Cubs article was that Dusty Baker leaving the team alone would account for several wins - it was pretty scathing towards Dusty. After reading their statistics, I'm not inclined to disagree. I do happily wave goodbye to lousy 'speed' players like Freddie Bynum, Neifi Perez, Hairston...though we still do have Cedeno and Izturis in the mix, at least they have some upside. They also project a big regression for Howry, Eyre, and Ohman so our bullpen might still end up imploding this year as well.

2. Prior made his first spring start last weekend, and, while I know it was only his first start (and his second one total in the past three years), it sure seems that he has a giant fork sticking out of his back. I've been hoping for a return from Prior, but at this point what I'm hoping is a strong spring from Angel Guzman (he's been great so far) leading him to beat out Prior AND Miller for the 5th roation spot. Though of course if Prior could put things together...that would be great too.

3. Jennie and I watched Pride of the Yankees earlier this week - it was a great flick. I looked up Gehrig's numbers and, good god, they weren't exaggerating the kind of power he had.

Chicago Cubs Baseball is on the Air!

I caught some of the first spring training game while walking around yesterday, though I was in class for most of it - I tuned in around the 2nd inning. I hadn't realized it, but I hadn't truly felt that baseball was officially underway. But then, when I turned on WGN, Pat and Ron were discussing Ron's lunch and Ron made sure to let everyone know that he does not like beans. After that, it sunk in that it's now baseball time.

Santo non-election, spring opening lineup

All I have to say is, BOOO to the Veterans Committee. Santo belongs in the Hall of Fame, even just on his playing stats alone. He won 5 consecutive gold gloves and posted an OPS+ of over 100 in 12 of the 15 seasons he played. Compare him to Brooks Robinson, who was a no-doubt hall of famer, who won 15 gold gloves but who only had 10 seasons of OPS+ over 100 in 10 of the 22 seasons that he played. Ron's career was cut short by diabetes, but there's no doubt that offensively he was better than Robinson on a season by season basis, and just about as good defensively. I boo you Joe Morgan, Bob Feller, Tom Seaver and all the other tools who keep closing Ron out of the Hall.

Now that that's out ofthe way, I want to offer a big thumbs up to Sweet Lou's first Cubs lineup of spring training he currently has slotted

CF Soriano
LF Murton
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
C Barrett
RF Jones
2B DeRosa
SS Izturis
P

This is exactly the lineup that I would have chosen, he (or someone there) must understand that a) Matt Murton needs ABs because b) Matt Murton can get on base, and c) Michael Barrett is a great batter. I can only hope that this is the regular lineup opening day and beyond during the regular season.

Spring Training!

Spring training is finally here!

For those of you who don't know, or haven't known me for the past few years, I've become quite obsessed with baseball. Which means that I get to subject you all to my rambling team-by-team (or division by division, depending on how lazy I am) previews of the upcoming season. I'll probably start breaking things down more throughly about the teams I care about (i.e. the Cubs + to a lesser extent the NL central in general) sometime after I receive the Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections in a week or so.

My first order of business is to make a preliminary projection for the standings/awards in the upcoming season. I'll likely change this to my final predictions right before opening day. (note that these W-L records probably won't add up to the right number of games, this is just an estimate)

AL

East
NYY 94-68
BOS 89-73
TOR 84-78
TB 74-88
BAL 69-93

Central
CLE 90-72
CHW 87-75
DET 80-82
MIN 76-86
KC 71-91

West
LAA 86-76
OAK 82-80
TEX 78-84
SEA 70-92

Cy Young: Santana (duh)
MVP: Grady Sizemore

NL

East
ATL 94-68
PHI 89-77
NYM 76-86
FLA 71-91
WAS 59-103

Central
MIL 87-75
CHC 84-78
STL 80-82
HOU 78-84
CIN 73-89
PIT 72-90

West
LAD 93-69
SD 86-78
ARI 85-79
COL 75-87
SF 68-94

Cy Young: Schmidt
MVP: Andruw Jones