The Scrap Heap

This week's links and rants...

First, the Packers injury recap. S Derrick Martin was added to the growing list of Packers on the IR, further compromising the team's already shredded secondary depth. Clay Matthews appears to be out for Sunday's game vs Miami (he did not practice on Wednesday). But the biggest blow is that TE Jermichael Finley's knee injury was worse than expected and he is expected to miss 8-10 weeks, if not the rest of the season. This is a huge blow for the Packers, as Finley is Rodgers's favorite target and he played a big role in the Packers overall offensive scheme.

On the bright side, QB Aaron Rodgers fully participated in yesterday's practice. However, there were no full-contact drills. I would guess that he cleared to play this weekend.

The big news in Madison is that College Gameday is returning to cover the Wisconsin vs #1 overall ranked aOSU. This should be a fun game. My best football memory is still the Badgers rain-soaked victory over aOSU in a night game at Camp Randall in 2003. Sure enough, College Gameday was there that week too.

This Big 10 Power Poll was one of the most hilarious things I've ever seen.

During the international break, Yankee Yiddos has been running a great series called "Yanks we'd like to see at the lane". You can find their pitches here, here, here, and here. This break comes at a good time as Spurs are quite banged up. They play the Cottagers this weekend and then head to Milan to take on Inter in their next Champions League bout.

Packers 13 - 16 Redskins: We've seen this shit before

Just a horrendous game all around for the Packers. Once again they looked great in the first quarter, putting up 220 yards (including a 70+ yard run from Brandon Jackson). But Rodgers's favorite target, TE Jermichael Finley, was knocked out in the first Packers series after injuring his knee making a tackle after a Donald Lee fumble. Then DE Ryan Pickett went down with a knee injury of his own. Then Donald Lee was taken out of the game with a shoulder injury after the Packers lone touchdown. The offense sputtered after that, marred by a rash of dropped passes, yet more dumb penalties (some of which weren't even called), and unnecessary short passing plays.

Seriously, Packers coaching staff, you have one of the top 5 QBs in the NFL playing against a shaky pass defense and you're throwing dinky 2-4 yard passes? What the hell? Did Greg Jennings even play in this game? Even when the Packers threw the ball down the field the receivers kept dropping the passes. As the game went on Brian Orakpo got going and just began destroying Bulaga and especially Chad Clifton.

But the biggest blow by far was Clay Matthews's hamstring injury, which completely hamstrung the defense. The Packers were all over the Redskins backfield with Matthews tearing around back there - once he left the field Washington started moving the ball again. They also finally realized that they could throw the ball with impunity across the middle with Peprah and a banged up Collins at safety, and we saw plenty of it in the 4th quarter and OT.

Even when McCarthy was right he still was wrong. Lots of Packers fans are complaining that the Packers went for the TD on 4th and inches and were denied. It was absolutely the right move. Even if you ignore some of the secondary chances (like fumbles/ints and the resulting field position of a failure), if you think it's a 50-50 chance that you get your 6 inches you have to go for it - the expected value of it is 3.5 points vs the 3 pts for a field goal. That said, what stupid play calls from MM on those goal line plays. Following a great run by Kuhn to get the ball to the 1 yard line, MM dials up a QB sneak by Rodgers which fails. Then on 4th and inches they call some dumb short passing play. Look, John Kuhn is good at exactly one thing, and that is getting a few inches. Why the hell not use him there?

There's plenty of rage going around about Mason Crosby but I don't fault him for missing a field goals from 48 and 52 yards. Those are no gimmes.

Early reports say that Matthews and Finley will be out for at least one week. That's not great news. To top it all off Rodgers apparently had a concussion in OT. FML.

Game ball: Clay Matthews

The worst part of this loss is that the shitty, shitty, Bears, who watched the Packers beat themselves 2 weeks ago, are now atop the division despite two awful weeks against the Giants and Panthers.

Addendum: Starters now injured
QB Aaron Rodgers (concussion?)
RB Ryan Grant (ankle)
TE Jermichael Finley (knee)
TE Donald Lee (shoulder)
RT Mark Tauscher (shoulder)
DT Justin Harrell
LB Nick Barnett (wrist)
LB Brandon Chillar (Shoulder)
CB Al Harris (knee)
SS Atari Bigby
SS Morgan Burnett (knee)

Packers - Redskins preview

Too many injuries will doom the Packers in this game, especially in the secondary. The Packers are missing long-term inactives SS Atari Bigby and CB Al Harris and recent inactives SS Morgan Burnett, LB Brandon Chillar, LB Nick Barnett and RT Mark Tauscher. FS Nick Collins is active but not 100%. We'll be seeing a lot of awful, awful S Jarrett Bush. Bulaga will get his first start with Tauscher out. Redskins top pick LT Trent Williams is also expected to get his first start today, though he is a little banged up himself. The big name on the Redskins inactive list is RB Clinton Portis, who is expected to be out for a few weeks. Ryan Torain should fill in nicely. DT Albert Haynesworth is out to attend the memorial for his recently deceased brother, but he hasn't had that big of an impact on defense anyway.

How the Packers can win: Even with their banged up pass defense corps, the Packers still get a good pass rush and the Washington wideouts just aren't that good. The Redskins have a banged up secondary too, and what GB does well is pass pass pass.

How the Redskins can win: Even though their WRs are nothing special, Chris Cooley should have a field day against the Packers safeties and MLBs. I don't think Torain isn't a very big dropoff from Portis either.

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Washington 28. I don't really have a handle on who should win this one, so I'll go with the home team.

Badgers win 41-23, Big 10 Power Poll

What we learned from the Badger victory:

1. Once again, James White is pretty freaking good. He and Clay both hit the century mark and scored 5 touchdowns between them
2. Lance Kendricks is also pretty good. He led the team in receiving yards and threw some great blocks on some of the longer runs by Clay and White.
3. The Badgers need to use the play action more often. They were getting killed in the second quarter (IIRC only ~20 yards before Gilreath's garbage time 30+ yd catch). Minnesota was stuffing the box and Wisconsin responded by...running the ball some more. Once they opened up the passing game with more play action in the second half the offense really got rolling.
4. Minnesota just isn't a great team. As I speculated in the preview, it's clear that Weber is a good QB trapped on a bad team. I'd trade him for Tolzien in a heartbeat. There were just too many dumb mistakes all around by the Gophers.

New Big Ten power poll
1. a Ohio State University (6-0, 2-0)
With Bama's loss last night to South Carolina the top spot should belong to aOSU...who so happen to be headed to Camp Randall next week. Rumor has it that ESPN is considering sending Gameday there. It's either that or the suddenly less lustrous Nebraska-Texas matchup. I'm hoping for a repeat of October 11, 2003 where Wisconsin beat OSU (who had the longest winning streak in the nation) 17-10 in a drizzly, energy-filled night game. It's the best football game I've ever attended and it would be tough to top. Hopefully the Wisconsin fans can bring out the same sort of energy for this game, and St. Jean and the Wisconsin linebackers can keep Terrelle Pryor between the tackles.

2a. Iowa (4-1, 1-0)
2b. Michigan State (6-0, 2-0)
Michigan State continues to look impressive, demolishing Denard Robinson in the Big House. As I said last week, they're pretty much what I was expecting Wisconsin to be. I don't think they go undefeated in Big Ten play (their defense still concerns me a bit) but the chance that MSU and aOSU both go undefeated is definitely in play. However, much like a typical Wisconsin team that's 2-0 at this point and riding high I expect them to lose one or two games for simple underpreparedness to a team like NW or Illinois. The last big game they have on their schedule is Iowa at home.

4. Wisconsin (5-1, 1-1)
They're still good enough to go 7-1 in the Big 10 (though it's unlikely with OSU and @Iowa still on the schedule). Clay hasn't been quite as good as his preseason hype but White has more than picked up the slack. The big problem is the defense. Even with Borland out on paper it should be pretty good. Watt and Nzegwu are great pass rushers off the end, and St. Jean and Mike Taylor are both above average linebackers. Valai leads the defensive backfield that doesn't have any outright holes. But the defense just keeps getting burned too often, especially on third downs.

5. Illinois (3-2, 1-1)
Maybe it's a bit of an overreaction to their win yesterday at PSU, and they do still have Ron Zook on the sidelines, but they've looked pretty good for the past 2 weeks. They almost upset aOSU, and then delivered an absolute beatdown to Penn State in their own backyard. They beat them by 20 points and it could have been even more if it weren't for three fumbles on special teams. They've probably peaked as far as the B10 season goes but they're not the pushover we assumed them to be.

6. Denard Robinson (5-1, 1-1)
Still all Robinson, nothing else. Still a work in progress.

7. Penn State (3-3, 0-2)
They just look terrible. They only managed three first downs in the first half, and were given 2 easy touchdown opportunities on PR fumbles by Illinois where they had to settle for field goals. Much as Iowa did, Illinois shut down Royster and made Bolden and the defense beat them, and they just couldn't do it. PSU's defense has had its share of injury problems, and when that's the strength of your team, you're due for a big fall

8. Northwestern (5-1, 1-1)
9. Indiana (3-2, 0-2)
10. Purdue (3-2, 1-0)
1100. Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)

Brett Favre may be suspended, forced into early retirement

According to The Manolantern, Vikings owner Zygi Wilf is pissed about the sexual harassment charges surrounding Brett Favre's time with the Jets that are now beginning to (re?)emerge. Even if he doesn't the NFL's personal conduct hammer might come down pretty hard on Favre anyway. Orange Guy speculates that if Favre is suspended for a significant amount of time he might retire. Given how the non-AP Vikings offense has performed so far this year it might not be that big of a difference.

Minnesota (1-4, 0-1) at Wisconsin (4-1, 0-1) preview

Minnesota's struggles this season have been well documented. They won their first game at FCS school Middle Tennessee State on a late touchdown in the fourth quarter and followed that up with a loss at home to even lowlier South Dakota. They put up a fight against USC at home, but then fell to Northern Illinois, again at home. They played a surprisingly good game against Northwestern in the last of their streak of home games, losing 29-28.

Minnesota QB Adam Weber seems like he's been around forever, and I've always thought he was one of the most underrated QBs in the Big 10. The problem is that he's never had anyone else to help him on offense. He had a nice breakout season, throwing for nearly 2900 yards passing and 24 TDs (to 19 INTs). He also put up 600+ yards on the ground. The big problem has been protection. He was only sacked 13 times in his freshman year. In his sophomore and junior years he was sacked 31 and 38 times respectively, and not surprisingly his TDs went down and his rushing yards went WAY down. He still has it in him to be an elite mobile QB but he has to stay on his feet and have someone to throw to.


Apparently the "y" at the beginning of the group was in the bathroom. (h/t to B5Q for the pic and the joke

Who had the axe?
Minnesota won the axe on the strength of running back duo Lawrence Maroney and Marion Barber III in 2001 and 2003. They also should have won it in 2005, when the trailing Badgers blocked a punt late in the 4th quarter to take a miraculous lead. Since then, it's been all Badgers.

How Minnesota wins
Adam Weber has a big game, Watt and Nzegwu get injured, and the Badger offense comes down with some kind of virus overnight. So there's a chance...

A little more seriously, for Minnesota to win Wisconsin really has to beat itself. If we see a repeat of the shenanigans we saw in the ASU and SJSU game, especially as regards to special teams, Minnesota could find themselves in this.

How Wisconsin wins
Watt and Nzegwu tear up Minny's O-line, St. Jean and the linebackers contain Weber, and Bielema runs a steady diet of James White, John Clay, and Montee Ball (once the game is well in hand). Minnesota has been equally poor on defense against both the run and the pass.

Prediction: Minnesota 13 - 38 UW

Go Badgers!

NLDS Preview: Braves vs Giants

(Originally posted at Another Cubs Blog. Again I apologize for the crappy formatting from the blogger editor's overzealous linebreak translator).

The last of the four Divisonal Series is the Wild Card winning Braves against the NL West champion Giants. Both teams made it into the postseason on the last day of the regular season on the heels of a Braves win over the Phillies and a Giants win over the Padres. Atlanta will have to try to win this series without face of the franchise Chipper Jones, who tore his ACL in August and may be done for good, depending on how his rehab goes. The offense is now led by catcher Brian McCann, former Cub Derrek Lee, who has been hitting the ball well, breakout second baseman Martin Prado, and ROY contender Jason Heyward. His neck-and-neck competitor, catcher Buster Posey joins Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff as the leader of the Giants suddenly lively offense. What happens in this series will not affect the Rookie of the Year vote, as if I remember correctly those ballots are submitted at the end of the regular season. But it should be a good matchup nonetheless.

Team to team comparison

	Braves	Giants
wOBA	.327	.318
SP xFIP	3.98	4.15
RP xFIP	3.40	4.02
Defense	3	53

I had no idea the Giants were so good defensively. If you look at the average between UZR and DRS (used in the numbers above), the Giants were the best defensive team in baseball. A big part of the assignation of those numbers was Giants OF Andres Torres, who managed to collect a whopping 22.6 UZR across 3 OF positions. Strangely enough even Pat Burrell posted a big year in both UZR and DRS. Speaking of strange defensive numbers, the Braves ended the season with a -34.4 UZR....and +43 by DRS. What the hell? Most notably DRS liked the now-departed Yunel Escobar, the now-injured Chipper Jones, and Jason Heyward a lot more than UZR.

Atlanta Braves

	wOBA	CHONE
C Brian McCann	.361	.364
1b Derrek Lee	.340	.356
2b Martin Prado	.352	.361
SS Alex Gonzalez	.292	.315
3B Omar "All-Star" Infante	.340	.339
LF Matt Diaz	.319	.334
CF Melky Cabrera	.294	.324
RF Jason Heyward	.376	.363
OF Eric Hinske	.341	.335
OF Nate McLouth	.283	.335
2b/3b Brooks Conrad	.356	.314

I listed a few of the backups because we'll probably see most of these guys as the Braves mix and match their crappy players into 3b, LF, and CF and hope someone gets hot. If MLB had a Reverse Comeback Player of the Year Award (Hindenberg award?) McLouth would easily be the guy who wins it. Both his bat and his (overrated) glove took massive leaps backward this year, which led to lots of Melky Cabrera.

	FIP	CHONE
Derek Lowe	3.89	4.02
Tommy Hanson	3.31	3.84
Tim Hudson	4.09	3.94
Billy Wagner	2.10	2.84
Kyle Farnsworth	2.93	3.60

The Braves also have some kid named Brandon Beachy, he of 15 career MLB innings, penciled in as the game 4 starter. I'm pretty sure they'll just go back to Lowe. Former ROY candidate Jair Jurrjens is not on the NLDS roster, and the other option is fellow rookie Mike Minor.

San Francisco Giants

	wOBA	CHONE
C Buster Posey	.368	.356
1b Aubrey Huff	.388	.356
2b Freddy Sanchez	.327	.314
SS Edgar Renteria	.314	.312
3b Kung Fu Panda	.314	.367
LF Pat Burrell	.371	.342
CF Andres Torres	.363	.346
RF Nate Shierholtz	.288	.329
ST Mark Derosa	infinity	infinity

Just about everyone on the Giants is hitting out of their minds. It must be a side effect of Mark DeRosa's stubble. Oddly enough Sandoval, who was the only position player worth a damn in the Giants offense since Bonds left, has had an awful year.

	FIP	CHONE
Tim Lincecum	3.15	3.04
Matt Cain	3.65	3.92
Jonathan Sanchez	4.00	4.14
Madison Bumgarner	3.66	4.67
Brian Wilson	2.19	2.98
Jeremy Affeldt	3.98	3.83

Prediction: Giants in 5. We should several low scoring affairs, but despite the fact that Lowe is a pretty underrated pitcher (by the forecasting systems), SF's superior pitching will win out. Atlanta's positional problems at 3b, LF, and CF would hurt them more if SF weren't essentially punting at RF, 2b, and SS and Sandoval continues to slump. I don't think the winning team scores more than 15 total runs in this series, and I look forward to the epic pitching matchup between the Giants top 3 and the Phillies top 3.