Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (13-13) at Pittsburgh Pirates (10-15)

Despite the recent offensive explosion, it's tough to believe that the Cubs offense is pretty good. They've scored the 4th-most runs in the NL, trailing the Diamondbacks (who have scored the most but have an awful pitching staff), Phillies (not surprising), and Dodgers (kind of surprising, though they've had some pitching problems too), and one run ahead of the Brewers offense. Looking at wOBA, among NL teams they trail the D-Backs and Brewers and are shockingly ahead of the run-scoring machine that is the Philadelphia Phillies. What the hell? Offensive explosion in the last series aside, it has felt like nearly every game this season has been a repeat of the Natinals/Mets/Astros series.

Luckily, the Cubs are heading to play Pittsburgh, whose season makes those godawful series look like exciting baseball. The Pirates have been outscored by 89 runs in only 25 games this season - on average they have coughed up 3-4 more runs per game than they've scored. They're "lucky" to have notched even 10 wins. The extreme shittiness of the Astros and Pirates this season should help the wild card chances of the other NL central teams, though the Brewers might have already dug themselves in too deep a hole for their shambolic pitching staff to bounce back from. Here are their primary players (note - I'm going to switch to using the updated ZiPS projections, since they're already on fangraphs)

Batting (wOBA, updated ZiPS wOBA, CHONE projected defensive runs)

1. Ryan Doumit, BHB (.385, .350, -3.4)
2. Jeff Clement, LHB (.231, .341, -0.8)
3. Akinori Iwamura, LHB (.292, .332, -1.6)
4. Ronny Cedeno, RHB (.255, .297, -0.8)
5. Andy LaRoche, RHB (.373, .338, 1.8)
6. Lastings Milledge, RHB (.264, .319, -3.2)
7. Andrew McCutcheon, RHB (.362, .357, 0)
8. Garrett Jones, LHB (.347, .364, -3.8)

Pitching (FIP, xFIP, ZiPS FIP)

1. Zach Duke, LHP (5.59, 5.00, 4.31)
2. Paul Maholm, LHP (4.70, 4.61, 3.94)
3. Charlie Morton, RHP (7.28, 3.98, 4.14)
4. Brian Burres, LHP (5.35, 6.31, 4.52)
5. Jeff Karstens, RHP (5.40, 5.28, 4.73)
6. Octavio Dotel, RHP (6.30, 4.46, 4.00)
7. Joel Hanrahan, RHP (5.68, 3.99, 3.48)
8. Brendan Donnelly, RHP (7.53, 6.16, 4.22)

They've had some crappy luck (team hitting BABIP: .275, pitching BABIP .335, on top of underperformance) but it's not like there's a ton to work with there. Andrew McCutcheon is going to be pretty good, so I guess the Pirates have that going for them. I wonder who they'll trade him for in 2 years?

Injuries
Garrett Jones missed Saturday's game after surgery to remove a chunk of roast beef from Friday's post-game spread that became lodged in his esophagus. He played on Sunday so I guess he's okay. McCutcheon is day-to-day with a sprained right ankle. Brendan Donnelly has a strained side muscle, though looking at his numbers he's probably better off not pitching. Ross Ohlendorf, one of their rotation 'mainstays' is on the DL with back spasms and should miss one more start before returning (Thursday is his usual turn in the rotation). Chris Jakubauskas is on the DL after a scary head injury from a screaming liner off the bat of Lance Berkman. He seems okay - he never lost consciousness and cat scans showed no skull fractures but the team is wisely taking it easy with him. Former Cubs Jose Ascanio and Kevin Hart, the two pieces in the Gorzelanny/Grabow deal, both have torn labrums. Ascanio had his surgery in February and Hart is having his today.

For the Cubs, Silva's wrist is still bothering him, and his next start was pushed back a day. IIRC he injured it while batting a start or two ago. Caridad is working his way back, and threw an inning in extended spring training yesterday. He should be heading to Iowa next, and could rejoin the team this weekend in Cincy.

Players to watch
McCutcheon and Doumit are both pretty good players, and they're pretty much the only guys who have been hitting on the team. As for the Cubs, you have to go with the white-hot Soriano. The fact that the Cubs are facing 2 lefties this series isn't going to hurt his chances at extending his hot-hitting streak.

Pitching matchups
Tuesday: Ryan Dempster, RHP (3.48, 3.61, 3.64) vs Paul Maholm, LHP (4.70, 4.61, 3.94), 6:05 PM CT
Demp has pitched well this year, and gave a good outing that wasn't supported by his offense (8 innings, 3 runs, 2 HR). Obviously he can't be the Ace. Hitters aren't making very good contact off of him - he's posted a 10.5% LD rate so far this season, which is a big reason why he has a .243 BABIP. The most you can say about Maholm, who is probably the Pirates erstwhile ace, is that he 'battles' and 'keeps his team in the game' with his sucky pitching. Honestly, I'd rather have a more volatile guy like Ted Lilly, who is more likely to throw a bunch of really good starts and have a blowout or three (like his last start) to even out his numbers.

Wednesday: Ted Lilly, LHP (5.90, 4.22, 3.99) vs Charlie Morton, RHP (7.28, 3.98, 4.14), 6:05 PM CT
Speaking of Ted Lilly, he's getting the next start. I'm not *too* worried about Lilly - as I mentioned above he's the kind of guy who just gets shelled a few times a year because of his flyball tendencies. He's also still coming back from that injury, and from what I've heard he didn't have great control (Lilly's calling card) in his first start either (he got some help from a hack-tastic lineup). Charlie Morton was a guy a lot of people in the Pittsburgh FO thought would break out this season, but he's been terrible - mainly due to the HR ball as he's allowed 7 in only 19 innings (check out his xFIP). He's also had an absolutely horrendous .439 BABIP on balls that don't leave the yard, though that's right in line with the 31.9% LD rate he's posted. He's a decent pitcher and this should be a good matchup.

Thursday: Randy Wells, RHP (2.35, 3.20, 4.11) vs (probably) Brian Burres, LHP (5.35, 6.31, 4.52), 6:05 PM CT
Brian Burres has been filling in for Ohlendorf and should get the start, but the Pirates might opt with the right-handed Brian Bass given the Cubs right-leaning lineup. He pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings in his last start but wasn't really fooling anyone. He's had big control problems throughout his career. Wells has sure done a good job os silencing the doubters who figured he'd go into a sophomore slump this year (though there's still plenty of time...). His strikeout rate has jumped by over 2 batters per nine innings, and he's walking one less batter per nine as well. Obviously he's had a bit of HR luck but he's pitched pretty well - he's even been quite unlucky with balls in play (.370 BABIP) but still pitched quite effectively.

Prediction Even when teams are very far apart a sweep is never the most likely outcome, but I'm going to say the Cubs do it anyway. They're throwing their three best pitchers in the rotation this series against (possibly) two left-handers and the anemic Pirates offense. Wednesday's game should be the only one that's close.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (4-10) at Milwaukee Brewers (8-7)

The Cubs just lost consecutive series to the worst team in the NL (Astros), and the worst managed/GM-ed team in the NL (Mets). Now the Cubs and their ice-cold offense head into Milwaukee, who are fresh off a sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, outscoring them 36-1. As you can see below, the Brewers are all offense, no pitching. Unlike the Cubs, who have had great starting pitching, but shitty, shitty offense. In the last 7 games Cubs starters have given up 2,1,2,1,1,2, and 0 earned runs over a total of 41 1/3 innings, for an ERA of 1.95. And the team has only 2 wins in those games.

I feel pretty good about the starters matching up with the Brewers potent offense (power meets power), but the failpen is another story. If Z (I still can't believe I'm saying this), Marshall, and Marmol get all the extra work, then the Cubs will only lose these games 3-1 instead of 7-1.

Brewers lineup (current wOBA, CHONE wOBA, chone UZR)

1. 2B Rickie Weeks, RHB (.348, .374, -5.2)
2. CF Carlos Gomez, RHB (.325, .323, 11.4)
3. LF Lloyd Braun, RHB (.486, .404, -4.9)
4. 1B Prince Fielder, LHB (.309, .412, -3.0)
5. 3B Casey McGehee, RHB (.479, .324, -3.4)
6. RF Jim Edmonds, LHB (.371, .334, -6.2)
7. C Gregg Zaun, BHB (.149, .315, -1.2)
8. SS The Most Exciting Player Ever, RHB (.368, .322, 0.9)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3.98, 3.30, 3.62)
2. Randy Wolf, LHP (4.50, 4.01, 4.22)
3. Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57)
4. David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79)
5. Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23)
6. Trevor Hoffman, RHP (10.23, 6.52, 3.84)
7. LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (2.40, 3.47, 3.97)
8. Todd Coffey, RHP (4.60, 5.77, 4.10)

Injuries
Not much new on the Cubs front. Lilly comes back in Saturday's game. Caridad was supposed to start throwing this week but I haven't heard any news on him. For the Brewers, the only injury of note is to "3b" prospect Mat Gamel, who has a shoulder tear and should be out a few more weeks.

Players to watch
Don't look now (or I guess, look now), but Soriano has started looking pretty good at the plate. He's been locked in the past few games, and was taking a ton of pitches in Thursday's game. Look for him to break out against this weak pitching, especially Suppan and Davis. For the Brewers, how can you not go with The Most Exciting Player Ever? Fireworks go off whenever he handles a routine grounder to SS.

Matchups
Friday Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.83, 3.34, 3.89) vs Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23), 7:10 PM CT
Demp's having a great season. He didn't bring great control against the Brewers in his last start, but the Cubs' bats actually woke up, so he was pitching to contact for most of the game, including a towering HR by Lloyd Braun. Jeff Suppan, is, well, Jeff Suppan (dying laughing). Just look at those FIP and xFIP numbers.

Saturday Ted Lilly, LHP (-,-,4.10) vs Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57), 6:10 PM CT
Ted had a nice outing in his last rehab start on monday and should be ready to go. He struck out 9 over 7 innings and threw strikes, which is what he's best at. He's a fun guy to watch pitch. Davis has been hammered pretty hard in all three of his starts this year, and hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in any of them. The Cubs hit a pair of homers against him last week, and with the righty-heavy lineup they can throw out there, hopefully they can do the same again.

Sunday Randy Wells, RHP (2.43, 3.69, 4.27) vs David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79), 1:10 PM CT
Bush painted the corners in his last start against Pittsburgh, inducing a ton (14) ground balls over 7 innings. He's had a lot of BABIP luck (.220) and is doing a shitty job of striking out batters (4.82 K/9), so hopefully the Cubs get to see a little regression here. Wells, on the other hand, has posted great numbers despite being very unlucky (.362 BABIP). So far the main source of his success is a higher K rate and a lack of HRs. That streak will probably end in this series.

Prediction
Though this should be a boring series, since both teams strengths match up well. But the Failpen should be worth at least two losses. Cubs lose 2 out of 3. It's too bad Cubs Ace Carlos Silva won't pitch in this series.

Cubs start season 0-2

I'm not worried, though I did find the games a bit disappointing. I've been waiting for months for real baseball, only to be reminded of the following facts

1. Soriano still waves futiley at sliders down and away
2. I still hate the John Grabow signing
3. Ryan Theriot is frustrating to watch on defense, no matter what the metrics tell me
4. The Cubs continue to show terrible fundamentals in the field and on the basepaths
5. Jeff Samardzija should be catching footballs
6. Ron Santo is a year older but sounds about 10 years older. I'm worried about his health.

But, on the bright side
1. I still love watching baseball, and watched/listened to all of the home opener despite how much it brought me down from my pre-game optimism and anticipation.
2. Jason Heyward. Wow.
3. Sean Marshall has looked dominating as a reliever. Someone mentioned on ACB that he might be this year's DeRosa.

The Braves are a really good ballclub - possibly the best or second-best team in the NL (up there with the Phillies). We shouldn't be surprised that a fringy team like the Cubs would lose a road series to (or get swept by) a top team like this.

Cubs MVPP (Most Valuable Position Player) - believe it or not!

Cubs position player WAR through games of 7/23.

Player	wOBA	WAR
Theriot	.344	2.3
Fukudome	.352	2.1
Lee	.370	1.8
Soto	.323	0.9
Ramirez	.368	0.7
Fox	.394	0.7
Fuld	.407	0.6
Fontenot	.296	0.2
Scales	.348	0.1
Bradley	.336	-0.1
Baker	.264	-0.1
Hill	.257	-0.3
Hoffpauir	.310	-0.4
Miles	.228	-0.9
Blanco	.232	-0.4
Freel	.192	-0.5
Soriano	.319	-0.5

Believe it or not, Ryan Theriot has been the Cubs most valuable position player so far this season.

To get these numbers, I split the PAs based on the number of innings each player had played at each position. The defensive UZR values used to find the WAR are what they have accomplished SO FAR this season. I did not include baserunning or catcher defense. I guess Theriot lucks out for the lack of TOOTBLAN penalties (dying laughing)

Fuld scores highly because he hit very well and posted good UZR in the small sample size we've seen so far from him.

link to spreadsheet

The Project-a-tron, part 1

We will start with the Cubs outfield, and I'll work my way through the team as spring training continues.

The Cubs outfield projects to be:
LF Alfonso Soriano
CF Kosuke Fukudome
RF Milton Bradley
OF Reed Johnson
OF Joey Gathright

Johnson will likely pick up a big chunk of starts in CF against left-handed pitching, and will be the first guy to make substitutions if anyone else needs a break/is injured. Gathright will mainly be used as a defensive replacement/pinch runner, from what I can guess.

Without further ado, here are the projections. The WAR values are calculated based on the projected wOBA.

Player	PA	HR	OBP	SLG	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Soriano	750	38	.325	.522	.365	+11	4.6
Fukudome	520	9	.367	.410	.345	+6	2.8
Bradley	480	25	.387	.502	.386	+2	3.0
Johnson	385	7	.338	.400	.327	+10 (LF) -10 (CF)+0 (RF)	0.3
Gathright	175	1	.340	.325	.310	+7 (CF)	0.2

As you can see from the amount of PAs above, I'm feeling quite optimistic about Soriano staying healthy this year. He is a talented baseball player, and he is criminally underrated by most Cubs fans. He also has a cannon for an arm in LF, which boosts his defensive rating. He may take terrible routes on balls, but his speed makes up for it. Plus, compared to most of the statues that teams put into LF, Soriano looks pretty good.

I don't think we will see the April/May 2008 Fukudome this year...but I also don't think we will see the often terrible-looking Fukodome who faded down the stretch in the worst way as the season wore on. Fukudome is a professional, and he will make adjustments. I don't have hope that the power people were hoping to see when he entered the league will emerge, but he is for real as an OBP machine, and I'd love to see him in the leadoff spot if it looks like he's gotten things together.

Bradley can hit the crap out of baseballs. I don't take (much) stock in the "oft-injured" label that Bradley has aquired - everyone seems convinced that he can't play the outfield and that he will have a season-ending injury at some point this year, which is just crazy talk. He played plenty of outfield (and did it quite well) while with LA and Oakland, and then blew out his ACL in an altercation with a racist umpire (or technically, his manager) after a fantastic season in San Diego in 2007. He mainly DHed in Texas last year, and hit the crap out of the ball, because his knee wasn't still 100%. Certainly his injury history makes him more likely to be injured in the future, but it's not like he's a ticking time bomb. He was rightly the centerpiece of Hendry's offseason, and replacing him with DeRosa was the right move:

Player	PA	wOBA	UZR	WAR
Bradley	480	.386	+2	3.0
DeRosa	620	.340	+6	2.2

DeRosa looks great as a 2b, but as a RF, he is barely league average (and a lot of that comes from defense, which I think is a very generous projection. He does have much better UZR numbers in RF than I thought though). As we will see later, Fontenot is also a quite good 2b, which made DeRosa expendable.

Johnson is a serviceable fourth outfielder - he can play all three positions (though he's not really a CF), and he hits the crap out of lefties. Right handed pitchers, however, turn him into Neifi Perez, which is why he should never be more than a 4th OF.

Gathright will likely be Bradley/Soriano's late game defensive caddy, and be kept around for his speed for pinch-running and as a pinch hitting leadoff type player. His value would multiply by a factor of 10 if the outfield were littered with cars.