My actual thoughts on Z to the pen

Well, this still applies.



More seriously though, while this is a dumb, dumb, dumb move, I don't think we should read anything more into it than

1. The Cubs starters have been pitching very well
2. The Cubs failpen has been pitching like shit
3. Z has the worst numbers of any of the starters *this year*

That's it. I don't think there's any secret punishment of Z running around the organization, nor is it a 'message' to the team, nor is Z injured. It's just a dumb decision based on small sample size.

While I recognize that having Z in the rotation will equal more wins, seeing a fired-up Z coming out of the bullpen should be pretty cool. He's still one of my favorite players, and coming out of the pen doesn't change that. Hats off to Z for being accomodating to this move and not bitching about it too.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (4-10) at Milwaukee Brewers (8-7)

The Cubs just lost consecutive series to the worst team in the NL (Astros), and the worst managed/GM-ed team in the NL (Mets). Now the Cubs and their ice-cold offense head into Milwaukee, who are fresh off a sweep of the Pirates in Pittsburgh, outscoring them 36-1. As you can see below, the Brewers are all offense, no pitching. Unlike the Cubs, who have had great starting pitching, but shitty, shitty offense. In the last 7 games Cubs starters have given up 2,1,2,1,1,2, and 0 earned runs over a total of 41 1/3 innings, for an ERA of 1.95. And the team has only 2 wins in those games.

I feel pretty good about the starters matching up with the Brewers potent offense (power meets power), but the failpen is another story. If Z (I still can't believe I'm saying this), Marshall, and Marmol get all the extra work, then the Cubs will only lose these games 3-1 instead of 7-1.

Brewers lineup (current wOBA, CHONE wOBA, chone UZR)

1. 2B Rickie Weeks, RHB (.348, .374, -5.2)
2. CF Carlos Gomez, RHB (.325, .323, 11.4)
3. LF Lloyd Braun, RHB (.486, .404, -4.9)
4. 1B Prince Fielder, LHB (.309, .412, -3.0)
5. 3B Casey McGehee, RHB (.479, .324, -3.4)
6. RF Jim Edmonds, LHB (.371, .334, -6.2)
7. C Gregg Zaun, BHB (.149, .315, -1.2)
8. SS The Most Exciting Player Ever, RHB (.368, .322, 0.9)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3.98, 3.30, 3.62)
2. Randy Wolf, LHP (4.50, 4.01, 4.22)
3. Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57)
4. David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79)
5. Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23)
6. Trevor Hoffman, RHP (10.23, 6.52, 3.84)
7. LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (2.40, 3.47, 3.97)
8. Todd Coffey, RHP (4.60, 5.77, 4.10)

Injuries
Not much new on the Cubs front. Lilly comes back in Saturday's game. Caridad was supposed to start throwing this week but I haven't heard any news on him. For the Brewers, the only injury of note is to "3b" prospect Mat Gamel, who has a shoulder tear and should be out a few more weeks.

Players to watch
Don't look now (or I guess, look now), but Soriano has started looking pretty good at the plate. He's been locked in the past few games, and was taking a ton of pitches in Thursday's game. Look for him to break out against this weak pitching, especially Suppan and Davis. For the Brewers, how can you not go with The Most Exciting Player Ever? Fireworks go off whenever he handles a routine grounder to SS.

Matchups
Friday Ryan Dempster, RHP (2.83, 3.34, 3.89) vs Jeff Suppan, LOL (7.20, 7.23, 5.23), 7:10 PM CT
Demp's having a great season. He didn't bring great control against the Brewers in his last start, but the Cubs' bats actually woke up, so he was pitching to contact for most of the game, including a towering HR by Lloyd Braun. Jeff Suppan, is, well, Jeff Suppan (dying laughing). Just look at those FIP and xFIP numbers.

Saturday Ted Lilly, LHP (-,-,4.10) vs Doug Davis, LHP (5.61, 3.73, 4.57), 6:10 PM CT
Ted had a nice outing in his last rehab start on monday and should be ready to go. He struck out 9 over 7 innings and threw strikes, which is what he's best at. He's a fun guy to watch pitch. Davis has been hammered pretty hard in all three of his starts this year, and hasn't made it out of the 5th inning in any of them. The Cubs hit a pair of homers against him last week, and with the righty-heavy lineup they can throw out there, hopefully they can do the same again.

Sunday Randy Wells, RHP (2.43, 3.69, 4.27) vs David Bush, RHP (4.47, 4.32, 4.79), 1:10 PM CT
Bush painted the corners in his last start against Pittsburgh, inducing a ton (14) ground balls over 7 innings. He's had a lot of BABIP luck (.220) and is doing a shitty job of striking out batters (4.82 K/9), so hopefully the Cubs get to see a little regression here. Wells, on the other hand, has posted great numbers despite being very unlucky (.362 BABIP). So far the main source of his success is a higher K rate and a lack of HRs. That streak will probably end in this series.

Prediction
Though this should be a boring series, since both teams strengths match up well. But the Failpen should be worth at least two losses. Cubs lose 2 out of 3. It's too bad Cubs Ace Carlos Silva won't pitch in this series.

Z to pen reaction: one day later

That's still pretty much all I got.

Idiocy: It's a Way of Life

I just got back from the airport only to discover Carlos Zambrano was moved to the bullpen.



That's pretty much all I have to say, except that whoever lobbied for this idea should be fired on the spot. Ugh.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (5-7) at New York Presbyterian Hospital (4-7)

Well, that was a disappointment. But luckily the Cubs are playing an even more disappointing team over the next four days. Seriously, Cubs fans, whenever you start feeling bad about this season just look at the Mets. The team blew big leads in 2007 and 2008 and were shut out of the playoffs, and then saw nearly their entire roster go down to injury last season, including Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Carlos Beltran, David Wright, Carlos Delgado, Jon Niese, John Maine, J.J. Putz, Billy Wagner, Gary Sheffield, Oliver Perez, and others. Beltran (the team's best player) is still unable to play after microfracture knee surgery in January, the cicumstances surrounding which are still unclear. The Mets claim they did not give him permission to get the surgery, and aired out all this dirty laundry to the NY Press. On top of this bizarre PR reverse-push, current manager Jerry Manuel was hired in 2008 after the bizarre firing of Jerry Manuel in the wee hours of the morning after the team had just won a game on a west-coast road trip, and most of the team found out from the media the next day.

To 'fix' the roster from last season Minaya went out and replaced the aging (and probably still injured) Delgado with Mike Jacobs, he of the .332 projected wOBA. Furthermore, he also acquired Angels millstone Gary Matthews Jr. to help fill in for the missing Beltran. The only big splash the team made in the offseason was signing the overrated Jason Bay, while seemingly completely ignoring their terrible pitching rotation. It seemed like the Mets were the second choice in every deal, and signed half a hundred backup catchers before Bengie Molina, who's not a great asset himself but was the only 'legitamite' starting catcher on the market, ended up re-signing with the Giants after the Mets kept dragging their feet. On top of that, midway through the previous season Minaya traded for my personal Bete Noire, Jeff Francouer, to be their everyday right fielder.

It's amazing how much of a joke this franchise has turned into.

The Cubs offense needs to wake up, and this could be just the series for it. The Mets are throwing three left-handers against the RHH-heavy Cubs, though their cavernous park should temper our expectations.

Mets lineup (with CHONE projected wOBA, UZR)

1. SS Jose Reyes, BHB (.366, 7.6)
2. 2B Luis Castillo, BHB (.329, -6.9)
3. 3b David Wright, RHB (.393, -6.0)
4. LF Jason Bay, RHB (.388, -6.9)
5. 1B Mike Jacobs, LHB (.332, -5.2)
6. RF Jeff Francouer, RHB (.327, -3.0)
7. C Rod Barajas, RHB (.304, 4.3)
8. CF Angel Pagan, BHB (.334, 6.1)

Pitchers (with current FIP, xFIP, CHONE FIP)

1. 1. Johan Santana, LHP (2.85,3.95,3.79)
2. John Maine, RHP (8.02, 5.70, 4.43)
3. Jon Niese, LHP (4.65, 5.33, 4.23)
4. Mike Pelfrey, RHP (2.66, 4.02, 4.36)
5. Oliver Perez, LHP (3.10, 4.35, 4.90)
6. Francisco Rodriguez, RHP (3.02, 4.65, 3.43)
7. Pedro Feliciano, LHP (5.35, 5.80, 3.94)
8. Ryota Igarashi, RHP (4.07, 5.52, xxx)

Injuries:
Currently, the Mets hospital lineup includes reliever Sean Green (rib injury), "1B" Daniel Murphy (knee injury, out 2-6 weeks), Carlos Beltran (knee surgery, out until at least May), and oft-injured pitcher Kelvim Escobar (shoulder soreness, not expected to contribute for months). For the Cubs, Lilly is expected to make his last rehab start on Monday before rejoining the team to make his season debut on Saturday in Milwaukee.

Players to watch:
Geo Soto's bat has warmed up in the past few days, and it would be great to see him (and the rest of the Cubs bats) warm up against the left-handed pitching they will see in this series. For the Mets, I'd love to see Francouer strike out about a dozen times in this series against the Cubs strikeout staff. I don't think he could draw a walk off even 2009 Marmol.

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Randy Wells, RHP (2.45, 3.78, 4.27) vs Jon Niese, LHP (4.65, 5.33, 4.23), 6:10 PM CT
Wells had a decent outing in his last start, even striking out the side in the first. He ran out of gas in the later innings too, and not surprisingly got into trouble after walking the pitcher. Niese looks like a decent young pitcher who could turn into a pretty good one. He pitched well in 5 starts with the squad last season before presumably going down with some sort of injury (with the 2009 Mets, it's a safe assumption). Fangraphs says that he throws mostly 90 mph fastballs and 89 mph cutters, though I'll trust HP more if he takes another look at him. He gets a decent number of ground balls though, so there's a chance that cutter is actually a 2-seamer.

Tuesday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (6.17, 3.70, 4.08) vs Mike Pelfrey, RHP (2.66, 4.02, 4.36), 6:10 PM CT
Z had issues with cramps and wildness in his last outing against the Brewers. Despite that he still was as 'effective' as Brewers starter Jeff Suppan. Hopefully this will remind him to eat his bananas and gatorade this season. Pelfrey's leads the Mets in both wins AND saves so far, and closed out the 20-inning suckfest on saturday on his throw day (one day's rest). He'll probably still get the start here, I think. He's a sinkerballer, but so far this season his secondary pitches (splitter, slider, curve) have been pretty sharp this season.

Wednesday: Carlos Silva, RHP (2.02, 3.38, 4.67) vs Oliver Perez, LHP (3.10, 4.35, 4.90), 6:10 PM CT
The Fail Whale continues to impress Lou and surprise everyone. I'm still skeptical of Rothschild 'fixing' him, but so far it definitely seems he's earned the rotation spot that he and Gorz were fighting over for when Lilly returns. Silva struck out 5 and walked none in his last start, and the 2 runs he allowed were both unearned. Who knows what's going on with Perez. He's always had good stuff but shitty control, but apparently this year he's lost a nontrivial amount of velocity on his fastball. He mixed in a lot more offspeed pitches with uncharacteristically good control in his last start, but given his track record you can't expect him to keep that up.

Thursday: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.48, 3.80, 4.43) vs Johan Santana, LHP (2.85,3.95,3.79), 6:10 PM CT
Gorzelanny took a liner off his arm in his last start and had to be pulled after three innings. From all reports he's okay, if a little sore, and should make his next start. The 'bright' spot in that game was actually the failpen, which pitched 6 innings and only gave up 2 runs, which isn't bad for a pen. Santana threw a great start to begin the 20-inning affair with the Cardinals, striking out 9 while walking one and allowing no runs in 7 innings. He's not the elite pitcher he once was, though he's still a great pitcher. The main source of his decline seems to be that he's lost his great change-up, which was one of if not the best changeups in mlb history.

Prediction: Split series. The Cubs win on monday and wednesday but get shut down by gb machine (and right-hander) Pelfrey and lose the mismatch with Santana.

Road Trip Recap and Series Preview: Milwaukee Brewers (2-3) at Chicago Cubs (2-4)

(cross posted at ACB)

Well, that sucked. What did we learn from the opening road trip?

1. Alfonso Soriano looks even worse on defense than he did last season, despite the fact that he was playing hurt all of last year
2. He looks just as lost with the plate
3. Soto has forgotten how to swing his bat
4. Aramis Ramirez looks lost at the plate
5. The offense in general is having trouble scoring runs
6. The bullpen is going to kill Ron Santo
7. John Grabow should not face any RHH that can outhit Neifi Perez

Now, the good news

1. Carlos Marmol's stuff is still incredibly flithy
2. The starting pitching was pretty great. It's hard to pick which one was the best but I'd probably go with Dempster's outing vs Atlanta (6 IP 1R 3H 2BB 9K). Silva and Gorz were surprisingly effective too
3. After looking like crap in the first two games, Fontenot found his glove and showcased some great defense in the Reds series (and got a few hits too). Fukudome made some great plays in RF. All in all, players whose names do not rhyme with Garbanzo Italiano played some good defense.
4. It's only been a week. We have good reason to believe Ramirez will bounce back, and to a lesser extent Soto. Even Soriano should get hot at some point. The Cubs are mixing Colvin in, which is the right thing to do (though he should be replacing Soriano defensively earlier in games), but you have to give these guys at least a month or two before you make any major changes.

Anyway, enough blathering. Onto the first Wrigley series of the year!

The Cubs take on the Brewers in what should be a beautiful week (great weather, 6 straight day games) to watch a baseball game, drink some Old Style, and gaze at the Glorious Scoreboard™ and the regenerating ivy vines...except the boo-birds should be out. Who will get booed the most? Soriano is the best bet but Z should be up there too. But the best way to stop the boos is to win, and the Cubs are set up to do so in this series with their rivals and their Little Brother Complex fanbase from the north.

Here's a glance at the Brewers' lineup and pitching staff

Batters (CHONE wOBA, CHONE UZR projection)

* 2b Rickie Weeks, RHB (.364, -5.2)
* CF Carlos Gomez, RHB (.323, 11.3)
* LF Lloyd Braun, RHB (.404, -4.9)
* 1b Prince Fielder, LHB (.412,-3)
* RF Jim Edmonds, LHB (.334,-0.2)
* 3b Casey McGehee, RHB (.324,-3.4)
* C Gregg Zaun, SHB (.315,-1.2)
* SS Overrated Escobar, (.322,0.9)

My lineup-a-tron pegs this lineup at 3.719 runs/game

Pitchers (CHONE FIP)

* Yovani Gallardo, RHP (3.62)
* Randy Wolf, LHP (4.22)
* Doug Davis, LHP (4.57)
* Dave Bush, RHP (4.79)
* Jeff Suppan, LOL (5.24)
* Trevor Hoffman, RHP (3.84)
* LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (3.97)
* Todd Coffey, RHP (4.10)

That non-Braun/Fielder offense is much more pedestrian than I thought. McGehee played way over his head last season, though I think CHONE might have him pegged a little low. Gomez is graded out to be their only plus defender, but scouts have raved about Escobar's defense for a long time - his main problem is that he swings at everything. Their defensive numbers could see a slight bump up with those two in place of Cameron (who is about as good as Gomez defensively) and J.J. Hardy (who was also pretty good defensively), but don't expect a big defense-related turnaround with this team.

Injuries

Suppan not only sucks, but he's making his first start coming back from a neck injury. Future DH trade bait Mat Gamel has a shoulder tear and is expected to miss the first month or two of the season. For the Cubs, Lilly has had another setback and has had his next start pushed back to Wednesday. He'll throw a bullpen session on Monday. Theriot has been bothered by a sore calf but was well enough to play (and take some pitches) today. I wouldn't be surprised to see Fontenot get a start sometime in the next week.

Players to watch

I actually like several players on the Brewers, but it's kind of cancelled out by the douchiness of Braun and the crapulence of their pitching staff in general. Prince Fielder is one of my favorite players in all of baseball, and Rickie Weeks can still be an incredible player if he manages to make it through the season for once. He's an exciting player and can get on base. For the Cubs, I'm not going to pick someone specific. The offense in general needs to pick it up, and there's no better recipe than the starters the Cubs are facing this week (not to mention the shambolic Astros in the following series).

Pitching Matchups

Monday: Doug Davis, LHP (6.41,4.52,4.57) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (1.41,1.86,3.89), 1:20 PM CT

I'm glad Demp gets the start in the home opener, since he is the nominal ace of the staff (if you define Ace to be best starting pitcher). We can't say enough about what a great job Hendry did in bringing him back after 2008. Everything was working for him in his last start. Adding further hope for a good start at home, Davis is a LHP, which the Cubs righty-heavy lineup should pound. Of course, I remember Davis giving the Cubs fits in many other starts. He's pretty wild (4+ BB/9 projected, and 4.07 for his career), but given the Cubs swing-happy clubs maybe it's not so surprising that he does well against them. In his first start, he was wild early and settled down as the game went on.

Wednesday: David Bush, RHP (4.14,2.81,4.79) vs Randy Wells, RHP (3.57,4.26,4.27), 1:20 PM CT

Bush has great control (2.15 BB/9 in his career) but his main trouble has always been the home run ball (1.28 HR/9 on his career, 1.41 and 1.50 in his last 2 seasons). He had a pedestrian outing vs StL in his first start, fanning 6 while walking two and giving up 3 runs (one homer) in 5 2/3 innings. Wells, meanwhile, had a great start against the Braves. He only struck out one batter, but he didn't allow any runs and managed to induce double play balls to get him out of jams. He got 13 grounders to only 3 FB and 5 LD. If he can keep the GB rate (and popup rate) going like he did last year, he'll keep putting up useful numbers.

Thursday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (6.99,3.62,4.08) vs Jeff Suppan, RHP (5.23) 1:20 PM CT

This should be a fun one. There is a chance Gallardo could get this start (he's listed as the probable on mlb.com), but everything else I've seen points towards Suppan making this start. Luckily for the Brewers, this is the last year of his awful, awful deal. Hats off to Suppan, who turned 2 good weeks at the end of 2006 into $42 million dollars. Well played, sir, well played.

Fun fact: Z has a career 3.64 ERA at home and 3.35 ERA on the road

Prediction

Cubs win 2 out of 3, and a good chance for a sweep. I also think that Sean Marshall and Jeff Gray will replace Grabow and Caridad as the top 2 relievers behind Marmol by the end of the week.

Series Preview: Chicago Cubs (1-2) at Cincinnati Reds (1-2)

(cross-posted at ACB)

The pitching staff kept it exciting from time to time, but the Cubs pulled out their first win of the season vs the Braves last night, salvaging the series. Wells was a little rocky early on but settled down a bit as the game went on, managing to get himself out of jams (one of which he created with a throwing error on another DP opp) with two double play balls. Hopefully Lou has disabused the notion of using Grabow as a setup man, and will use him as an overpaid LOOGY instead.

I'm not that worried (or surprised) that the Cubs dropped this series to the Braves. They were playing on the road, against one of the top 3 teams in the NL. I think the main thing we learned from this series is pretty much ZOMG Jayson Heyward. And that Grabow sucks.

On to Cincinnati, the city I always have to look up to remember how to spell!

Here's a glance at the main contributers to the team, along with their CHONE projected wOBAs and FIP

Batters (lineup simulator: 3.2508 runs/game)

1. Stubbs, CF (.317)
2. Cabrera, SS (.320)
3. Votto, 1b (.392)
4. Phillips, 2b (.336)
5. Rolen, 3b (.344)
6. Bruce, RF (.379)
7. Gomes, LF (.355)
8. Hernandez, C (.325)

Pitchers

1. Harang, RHP (4.26)
2. Arroyo, RHP (4.81)
3. Cueto, RHP (4.67)
4. Bailey, RHP (4.66)
5. Leake, RHP (??)
6. Cordero, RHP (3.66) - closer
7. Masset, RHP (3.84) - RH setup
8. Rhodes, LHP (3.69) - LH setup

Wow, looking over those numbers, especially the pitching staff, I'm really scratching my head as to why people are high on the Reds to be on the fringes of contention this year. I'm sure it will be even uglier when I do the Brewers after this series, but wow, what a shambolic staff projection. Most of the optimism has to do with the upside of their young pitchers, Bailey (who had a good run at the end of last year), Cueto (who had a good run 2 years ago but is still young), and Leake, whose talent was overshadowed by Strasburg but is going to make his pro debut without throwing a single pitch in the minors, the first to do so since Jim Abbott in 1988.

Injuries:
Not much going on for the Cubs that will affect this series. Lilly had today's rehab start pushed back 2 days due to back stiffness. Jeff Gray pitched for Iowa last night, and will likely join the squad as soon as he's elgible. He'll probably bump F7 or Russell from the roster. Nothing seems to be cooking for the Reds, except that ROY candidate Edinson Volquez is still recovering from his TJS.

Players to watch:
I'm excited to see Leake pitch on Sunday. It's pretty rare to see a guy thrown right into the majors, but the Reds seem to believe his stuff. After a good series against the Braves, the Cubs player to watch is Marlon Byrd. He hammered both of his HRs, especially the second one.

Pitching matchups:
Friday: Carlos Silva, RHP (4.67) vs Homer Bailey, RHP (4.66), 6:10 PM CT
Silva had a good spring, but sadly we'll probably see something closer to the CHONE projection above. Rothschild has changed his delivery a bit, most notably moving him over on the rubber. It has worked so far, but I'm kind of skeptical, since if something so simple could 'fix' him, you'd think someone would have tried it in the past 5 years. Bailey is a former overhyped prospect who has now shed the labels that he had coming up - mainly because he flopped in his first few stints in the majors. However, Bailey finally seemed to figure it out last year - routinely going deep into games in the minors for the first half of the year, and then posted a 1.70 ERA in his last nine starts with the big league club at the end of the year. He doesn't have great control (4.13 BB/9 last season) or particularly dominating stuff (6.83 K/9 last season), but it seems that his MO is that of a slight GB pitcher (42.5%)

Note: for pitchers who have already pitched, I am listing their FIP, xFIP, and CHONE projected FIP.
Saturday: Carlos Zambrano, RHP (3.61,4.27,4.08) vs Aaron Harang, RHP (4.14,3.95,4.26), 12:10 PM CT
Well, let's see if Z can bounce back from that opening day nightmare. Great American Band Box might not be the best place to do it, given how HRs fly out of the place. I thought Z's pitches looked like they had lots of movement on them in his first start, but he threw way too many pitches up in the zone, and from what Z/Lou said, he didn't have great control either. He did have a great PA against Glaus, who he struck out on 3 94-95 mph fastballs, which was pretty much the only bright spot in the start. He'll have the same leaky infield defense behind him, so lets hope that by getting the ball down a bit more there will be less bloops and more balls hit past futilely diving middle infielders. Harang is another perpetually underrated pitcher, just like Z. He gets a ton of strikeouts, but far fewer ground balls than I expected. In fact, you'd think a fly-ball pitcher like Harang would be a recipe for disaster given his home ballpark. He's broken down a bit since Dusty's arrival, seeing his K rate drop and bb rate rise a bit, but that could just be due to aging. He was also quite hit-unlucky last year (.339 BABIP), so should see a little better luck this year.

Sunday: Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (4.43) vs Mike Leake, RHP (??)
Right now it seems like Silva has the edge on staying in the Rotation when Lilly returns, so Gorz pretty much has two starts to convince the Cubs otherwise. Lord of the internets Harry Pavlidis did a breakdown of Gorzelanny's stuff after the Cubs acquired him last season. He throws 4 and 2 seamers, a changeup, curveball, and slider. He's mostly a fastball-changeup guy against RHP, and mixes in a few more sliders vs lefties. Leake, having had no minor league stats whatsoever aside from his AFL stint last fall, doesn't even have a fangraphs page yet. He was a star at Arizona state though. Here are his lines from the past 3 seasons:

Year	IP	R	HR	BB	SO	ERA	FIP
2007	117.2	54	13	27	90	3.60	3.79
2008	121.1	61	7	20	104	3.49	2.73
2009	142	31	4	24	162	1.71	1.79

It sure looks like he's ready. That last year was Strasburg-esque. Per KG, he has an above-average speed fastball with good movement that he locates well, a good change, and an average curveball and slider. He also hit pretty well in college too. The main knocks against him are that he's short and he doesn't have one dominating pitch, just a collection of good ones. KG has him pegged as a third starter with upside. He's still young, so some of those pitches could improve with major league coaching, so long as his arm doesn't fall off

Prediction: I think the Cubs take the first two games and lose the third to Leake.

Cub fandom

It's been a frustrating few weeks to be a Cubs fan. Aside from the lousy play of the team, there has been an absolute media trainwreck that could result in Milton Bradley and Carlos Zambrano being shipped out of town (at their own request). We saw this already with Sammy Sosa in 2004 - he was one of the most (if not THE most) popular players in franchise history but the Chicago media tarred and feathered him to the point that everyone felt pleased with themselves when he was shipped out of town in exchange for Mike Fontenot and a bag of balls.

Many people over at ACB have been claiming that they will quit their Cub fandom if one/both of these guys are run out of town by the media/fans. I don't know how serious they are about jumping ship to, say, Another Rangers Blog or become Dodgers fans or who knows what - I'm even crappier at reading people's levels of serious on the internets than I am in person. If that is the case, and ACB as I know it is essentially dissolved, I will be pretty disappointed. For one, I like the people over there, and the random conversations we have. But I will still be a Cubs fan (albeit a very frustrated one) if they blow up the team this offseason.

I was 'born into' Cub fandom through my Cub-fan parents, and became a pretty serious fan after the awful 2003 playoff disaster, but as time has passed the main reason I'm a Cubs fan is this - I have the vain hope of hearing Ron Santo experience a Cubs World Series championship. I know all the criticisms of Ron as a broadcaster/player/etc (and even agree with many of them), but the This Old Cub documentary really sucked me in. It's kind of foolish, but I guess that's what being a fan is all about.

Series Preview: Marlins (13-8) v Cubs (10-10), 4/30- 5/3

As crappy as the team has played, it's good to remember that the Cubs are 10-10, and not, say 5-15 like the Washington Natinals. Speaking of the Natinals, the Marlins are certainly going to miss playing them.

Opponent	Record	Runs Scored	Runs Allowed	Runs Scored/Game	Runs Allowed/Game
vs WAS	6-0	45	25	7.5	4.1
vs everyone else	7-8	49	75	3.3	5

Just about any team will feast on the (lack of) pitching that the Nationals have, and the Marlins are no exception. Their best player, Hanley Ramirez, is also a little banged up after being hit on the wrist by a pitch earlier this week.

The Cubs, on the other hand, are coming off a stretch three straight series losses and a clownboatload of injuries. There were signs of life in the offense in Tuesday's game, and Milton Bradley seems to be seeing the ball a bit better. However, they stunk up the joint on Monday and Wednesday, and it looks like the team's second best hitter, Aramis Ramirez, might be headed to the DL. This can only mean more Aaron Miles, which is not a recipe for good. Furthermore, Soto and Lee have looked quite terrible at the plate. Maybe Florida's pitching can wake some of these guys up? Maybe they'll have to take a trip to KFC instead.

Note: I'm going to add each pitcher's current and roughly projected FIP to these

Probable Pitchers
Thursday: Volstad (4.64, 4.4) v Marshall(3.77, 4.6) (7:05 pm)
Volstad's a decent pitcher. He put up a great ERA last year in his rookie season and his peripherals backed it up, to some extent. He's struggled with his control in his last few starts but has been able to limit the damage. Marshall has been spectacularly mediocre, doing just what you expect from your 5th starter (lasting 5-6 innings, giving up 3 runs or so). I'm still not the biggest Marshall supporter, as you may have surmised, though I think he is our fifth best starting pitcher and is certainly better than Jason Marquis. I still haven't gotten over his scouting report from 2006 that said he's the type of guy that will be hit hard after his second or third time through the lineup (and second or third time around the league). He's shown some promise since then, but he needs to prove me wrong to make a believer out of me. He certainly did have a wicked curveball working in his last start, which I love to see.

Friday: Taylor(7.82, 5.43) v Harden(4.52, 3.1) (1:20 pm)
I don't know if we'll see a bigger pitching mismatch the entire season. Taylor just made the jump from AA into the Marlins rotation, and was hit hard by the Phillies in his only start. His minor league numbers show him to be a command guy, with K/9 hovering in the ~6 range but with very few walks. That kind of stuff typically doesn't translate into the majors unless you have truly special stuff, and it does not look like Taylor has it. Not much I can say about Harden here. He is good at throwing baseballs.

Saturday: Anibal Sanchez(4.1, 4.35) v Ted Lilly(5.34, 4.3) (1:20 pm)
Sanchez was hit pretty hard in his last start vs. the Mets. He definitely has problems with the base on balls, so I hope the Cubs can capitalize. As far as Lilly goes, we'll see which Ted shows up. It shouldn't be too warm at Wrigley on Saturday, so that will help him out some. He certainly has to show more command than he did in his last start. This one feels like a tossup to me.

Sunday: Ricky Nolasco(3.65,4.05) v Carlos Zambrano(4.13, 4.15) (1:20pm)
Nolasco has a terrible ERA thus far, but I was surprised to see that his peripherals look good. The Cubs hit lefthanders very well last year (despite Doug freaking Davis and Wandy freaking Rodriguez having their number), so it will be interesting to see how things go vs. Nolasco. Z had a great outing in his last start, though wierdly enough he only notched 3 strikeouts against the hack-tastic Diamondbacks. I saw him pitch in person and I can see why people have been cringing at his mechanics for quite some time. It seems to be working though (albeit not as well as he pitched pre 2007), and Z is still Z. You gotta love having that bat in the lineup too. That HR he hit was absolutely crushed. Seeing the replays still floors me, it didn't look like he even got a good swing on it. Zambrano is crazy strong.

Predictions:
Series is split, though I do think the Cubs have a slight advantage. The first two games are fairly easy picks, but I would not be surprised to see the Cubs win both weekend games and finally build some momentum.

Series Preview: Cubs vs Reds (4/21-4/23) (and bonus Reds preview)

Dusty Baker returns to Wrigley field this week for a 3-game set against the Cubs. A lot of people picked the Reds to be frisky this year based on their pitching staff, but I'm not sure what to make of them. Dusty Baker's management of pitchers aside (poor Aaron Harang), the Reds' ballpark has to somewhat mitigate any positives that their starting pitching gives them. Another major problem is their lineup. Dusty Baker continues his crusade to put impatient but fast players at the top of his lineup, and Willy Taveras (of the career .333 OBP) is just Juan Pierre 2.0. Losing Adam Dunn fron last season is going to be a big problem for them too - he was by far the best hitter on their team.

The offense is now centered around a core of Votto, Bruce, Encarnacion, and Phillips. Phillips is a great asset for the team, but everyone seems to remember his career year in 2007 instead of the rest of his work (including the 2 years bracketing it). He's a good player, but he's not a guy you can center your offense around. His projected wOBA is just about average. Votto is going to be quite good (and one of the most underrated players in the NL), Bruce projects well but is still young, and Encarnacion has been the Javier Vazquez of hitters, always underperforming his peripherals. Those 4 are solid players, and any of the young guys could have truly breakout seasons this year. However, the rest of their lineup is quite putrid.

Most of the buzz surrounding the Reds is their pitching staff, which is a little overrated. Harang might be breaking down under Dusty's usage (that 4 inning relief appearance on two day's rest last year was criminal). He's a good-to-great pitcher when he's healthy. Cueto is overrated due to his fast start last year, and is projected to be a league average pitcher. Volquez is probably a little better than Harang, but his peripherals aren't as good as that sparkling ERA that he put up last year. Arroyo is slightly better than league average, and Owings is pretty mediocre. That bandbox of a ballpark that they play in certainly isn't helping them either. They have a lot of strikeout pitchers, but Volquez is the only one with any groundball tendencies, which is trouble in that park.

Even with one or two breakout seasons, they're probably still behind the Cubs and Cardinals. They have a decent hitting core, but I don't think that the rest of their lineup is good enough to make up for the handicap that the ballpark gives to their pitching.

Who's hot
Derrek Lee
Aramis Ramirez
Aaron Harang

Who's not
Brandon Phillips
Edinson Volquez
Geovany Soto

Pitching Matchups
Tuesday: Micah Owings v Rich Harden (7:05 pm)
Owings has barely pitched this season, and was roughed up by the Brewers in his first outing. Harden had quite a but of trouble in his last start as well, but is a much much better pitcher than Owings. It sure seems like he was tipping his changeup in his last start, but Harden said that he just screwed started throwing instead of pitching because his shoulder felt so good. It's going to be a cool night and the Reds remain base-clogging averse, so I'm betting he has whatever was going on his last start figured out and we get a nice start from Harden.

Wednesday: Johnny Cueto v Ted Lilly (7:05 pm)
Cueto's going to be a good pitcher someday, but it doesn't seem like that's going to happen yet. He had lots of problems finding the plate in his last start (6 BB in 4.2 IP), so hopefully the patient Cubs feast on him. Uncle Ted threw an incredible game in his last start, and should continue to do well in the cool weather on Wed night. I'll be at this game (yay) with bleacher tickets, following my afternoon seminar talk at UIC.

Thursday: Carlos Zambrano v Aaron Harang (1:20 pm)
Harang had a tough luck loss in his last start - he gave up 5 runs and 10 hits but most of them were balls that found their way through the infield. He threw a complete game shutout in his previous start, so it looks like he's got good stuff at this point in the season. I think Harang pitches a good game the Reds end up winning this game. I *might* (edit: I will) end up sticking around Chicago for this game as well, depending on whether I get enough work done this week to get me over the grad school Guilt Hump.

Random Predictions
Last week:
Last week's predictions went okay - I was correct in that the Cubs won the series and that Sunday's game would be rained out. Was quite wrong about the HRs hit in this series (thank goodness we kept Pujols silent).

This week:
Cubs win the series 2-1 (lose on Thursday)
Milton Bradley goes on a tear
Soto continues to slump

Series Preview: Cubs vs. Cardinals (4/16-4/19)

The first 'big' series of the year is coming up for the Cubs. So far it seems that the Cardinals are the only credible competition for the Cubs this year within the division, though the Cubs should finish well ahead of them. I was feeling much more bullish about the Cardinals until Carpenter was injured yesterday, which is really too bad for them. I caught an inning or two of the game before his injury and it reminded me of why I like watching Carpenter pitch. He should still be a factor for the rest of the season, but those oblique injuries can be pretty strange.

The Cubs are suddenly looking banged up too, though it's not too surprising considering the cold weather they've been playing in. The Cubs will be without Bradley until the weekend, due to his groin injury. I don't think we see him until next week, seeing how wet the weather this weekend is supposed to be (I wouldn't be surprised if the Sunday game is rained out). Ramirez has been day-to-day with a stiff back and Soto just returned from a minor shoulder/biceps problem as well. He went 0-4 today and I would not be surprised if it takes him a few games to get into a groove at the plate.

Who's hot
Cubs:
Fukudome
Soriano
Lee (has been hitting the ball hard)
Marmol

Cards:
Pujols
Ludwick
Lohse

Who's not
Cubs:
Soto
Gregg
Dempster

Cards:
Ankiel
Motte

The matchups
Thursday: Wainwright v Marshall (1:20 start)
Wainwright is a good pitcher, but I feel good about the team's chances against him at this point in the season. He struggled to find the strike zone and thus ran up some early pitch counts in his first two starts (8 BB in 10.1 IP). Given how patient the Cubs have been lately, we might expect to see more of the same in this start. This will be Marshall's first start this year, and I'm interested in seeing how he'll do. As always, the Cardinals have an offense that's better than it appears, and I think they rough up Marshall this time around. I expect this to be a high-scoring game.

Friday: Lohse v Zambrano (1:20 start)
This should be a good game. Zambrano always brings his A game against the Cardinals, and Lohse has pitched very well thus far this season (albeit against the poor-hitting Pirates and Astros). Lohse has shown better control so far this year, and I have the feeling that this one will be a real pitchers' duel.

Saturday: Wellemeyer v Dempster (2:40 start)
Wellemeyer is yet another Larussa/Duncan reclamation project that I keep expecting to blow up in their faces, and yet he keeps producing. I hated him when he was with the Cubs, but he's been better than decent since joining the Cardinals. Dempster was quite shaky in his last outing, so it will be interesting to see if he bounces back. I hope he made good on his promise to Reed Johnson to buy him some Culver's for hauling back Fielder's grand slam.

Sunday: Lilly v TBA (7:05 start)
It's another night game, and should be cool due to the rain that's moving through this weekend (which might cancel the game). This should help Ted - he pitched well in the cold conditions in the home opener on Monday. Lilly's one of those guys who gives you a better-than-quality start when he has his stuff/the conditions are good, but gets shelled if he's off. I'm thinking Lilly puts up another good performance and the Cubs crush whomever the Cards throw out there to replace Carpenter.

Random Predictions
Cubs win series 3-1 (win on Sunday and the other three games are close)
Pujols hits 3 HR in the series
Derrek Lee heats up, hits 2 HR

Project-a-tron: Carlos Zambrano

Zambrano has been my favorite Cubs player for many years. People use lots of adjectives to describe Zambrano, such as "Fiery", "Emotional", "Injury-waiting-to-happen" (thanks for that, Will Carroll), "Angry", and other such names. However, my favorite is "goofy", which I first read in BP's "It Ain't Over 'Til It's Over" in the chapter on the 2003 Cubs. What better word to describe Carlos? He's a fun-loving guy who loves baseball.

Z has seen his strikeout rate decline for the past 2 seasons. However, this has been tempered by an equal decline in his walk rate, which had always been a problem for Z (especially in 2006, when he had a 4.84 BB/9). Instead, he began to rely more on his groudball tendencies to get his outs. You would think that this would lead to Z going deeper into games, but in fact this number has declined, as he has been hit harder (6.75, 6.35, and 6.27 IP/Start, respectively). I'm no expert, but I don't know if Z is as due for an injury as Will Carroll seems to be. He's been beating the drum on this for years, and only at the end of last season did Z start breaking down. He's certainly been pitching differently than he did in his prime years (lower arm slot), but it still seems to be working for him, though not as well as his prime years. His projection, perhaps not coincedentally, sees him continuing to produce at this new level.

Player	IP	K	K/BB	WHIP	ERA	WAR
Zambrano	180	152	1.85	1.33	3.83	3.3