Playoff Scenarios

There was a bunch of debate around the interwebs about UW's chances at the Rose Bowl due to their loss at MSU. If MSU, aOSU, and UW end up in a 3-way tie (which is what I think happens), these are the rules (from the Big Ten website):

Unless ranked No. 1 or No. 2 in the final BCS poll, the conference champion shall participate in the Rose Bowl. The championship shall be determined on the percentage basis of conference games (tie games counts ½ win and ½ loss). If there is a tie for the championship, the Rose Bowl representative will be determined as follows:

...

If more than two teams tie for the championship, the same selection procedures shall be followed with the following exceptions:

1. If three teams are tied, and if one team defeated both of the other teams, then that team shall be the representative.
2. If three teams are still tied, and if two of the three teams defeated the third team, the third team is eliminated, and the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
3. If three teams are still tied, and there is a tie game between two of the three teams, or if two or all three of the teams did not play each other, the representative shall be determined on a percentage basis of all games played.
4. If three teams are still tied, and one of the three teams is eliminated through the percentage basis of all games played, the remaining two teams shall revert to the two-team tie procedure.
5. If three teams are still tied, and all three teams have the same winning percentage of all games played, the highest-ranked team in the final BCS standings shall be the representative.

In this scenario, we have aOSU, MSU, and UW all as one-loss teams: aOSU to UW, UW to MSU, and MSU to Iowa. Cases 1 and 2 will not come into play because they're all one-loss teams. Cases 3 and 4 won't come into play because MSU does not play aOSU and all the teams will have the same overall record. Thus it comes down to case 5, the BCS standings. Since Wisconsin will have lost the least-recently I would say there's a good chance they come out on top, but the big question would be whether Ohio State would re-leapfrog them after a win over Iowa.

Most likely monkey wrenches (in order of likelihood)

1. Michigan State defeats Iowa, goes undefeated. This is my biggest worry - Iowa has to be seriously deflated after the loss to Wisconsin and it remains to see how they'll respond


2. Iowa defeats Ohio State, loses to Michigan State. In this case UW and MSU would be tied at the top of the standings, and MSU would advance on the head-to-head win.


3. Iowa defeats Ohio State and MSU. In this case we'd be looking at a three-way tie between Iowa, MSU, and UW. MSU would got to the Rose Bowl in this case, as Iowa's non-conference loss to AZ would eliminate it per case 3, and then MSU would win on the strength of their win vs UW.


4. Wisconsin loses to Denard Robinson. You never know what will happen in the Big House. Michigan's defense is awful but Robinson can win a game by himself.


5. MSU loses to PSU in the last game of the season. PSU is fading big-time down the stretch, but they're still tough to beat at home, and MSU still looks beatable by a good team.

Wisconsin 31 - 30 Iowa: Letdown game avoided

By Grapthar's Hammer, by the Sons of Worvan, what a ballgame. Strangely enough, Wisconsin pulled through despite all the "keys to the game" pointing in Iowa's direction. White was ineffective and injured early, and Iowa managed to keep Clay from being the force that he can be on offense. Furthermore, Wisconsin was missing several players on offense by halftime, with Toon out after last week, White out with his injury, Kendricks out, and the starting center out. Iowa also managed to stymie Wisconsin's pass rush. Stanzi had all sorts of time and the only sack that Watt managed was a (well-timed) coverage sack during Iowa's last drive. Due to their limiting of Clay and White's injury the UW offense leaned on Tolzein's arm, and he looked great despite missing his two favorite recievers. He even gave them a gift INT at the 26 yard line in the 4th quarter but Iowa didn't do much with it (though the FG definitely gave UW a higher mountain to climb)




How Wisconsin won: Aside from the excellent execution mentioned above, the big thing I took away from this game was the preparation and playcalling. Bielema and Christ had the stones to go for it on two 4th downs, one on fourth and goal at the 1, and the other at 4th and ~4 at the Iowa ~35 yard line in their final drive. However, my favorite play call was the fake punt that sparked that last drive. The coaching staff noticed that Iowa was not sending many players forward on the punt block, and the punter just took it and ran. He had run 10 yards or so before any of the players running back to cover the kick even realized it.

How Iowa lost: Special teams, poor clock management, and erratic passing. Stanzi's overall numbers were great but Wisconsin's coverage today was garbage and he should have had an even bigger game. Iowa left 4 points on the board early with a missed PAT and a bungled FG snap, and further hurt themselves with some dumb penalties in the second half. In Wisconsin's second drive of the 3rd quarter, the Hawkeyes pinned Gilreath deep on a kickoff that was erased by an offsides call. Gilreath took the next punt to the 50, and nearly all the way were it not for the kicker doing just enough to trip him up.

Game ball: Bret Bielema and Paul Chryst
Honorable mention: Clay, Ball, Tolzien, Gilreath

Bielema has completely erased all of my reservations about him in this win. Not only did the team show up (preparation has always been my main complaint with Bielema), but they made several great playcalls and the UW special teams unit seems to have fixed some of the mistakes that were plaguing them early in the season.

Looking ahead
10/30: BYE
11/6: @Purdue
11/13: Indiana
11/20: @Michigan
11/27: Northwestern

Wisconsin gets a week to heal up, then gets to face the two soft Indiana teams before taking on the Denard Robinson Show at the Big House and seeks to avoid another typical Northwestern wrench-in-the-gears game. I shake my fist at them for not being able to close it out against Sparty this week. Ugh. That would have been perfect.

Michigan State is still in the driver's seat, and the rest of their schedule looks favorable (even if they lose at Iowa next week).
10/30: @Iowa
11/6: Minnesota
11/13: BYE
11/20: Purdue
11/27: @PSU

I expect them to lose at Iowa, but I don't really see them losing any of their other games. They'll know exactly what they're playing for if they're still undefeated by the PSU game, and PSU is fading fast. The big question is which team of UW and aOSU gets selected behind MSU to go to a BCS bowl.

Badgers win 41-23, Big 10 Power Poll

What we learned from the Badger victory:

1. Once again, James White is pretty freaking good. He and Clay both hit the century mark and scored 5 touchdowns between them
2. Lance Kendricks is also pretty good. He led the team in receiving yards and threw some great blocks on some of the longer runs by Clay and White.
3. The Badgers need to use the play action more often. They were getting killed in the second quarter (IIRC only ~20 yards before Gilreath's garbage time 30+ yd catch). Minnesota was stuffing the box and Wisconsin responded by...running the ball some more. Once they opened up the passing game with more play action in the second half the offense really got rolling.
4. Minnesota just isn't a great team. As I speculated in the preview, it's clear that Weber is a good QB trapped on a bad team. I'd trade him for Tolzien in a heartbeat. There were just too many dumb mistakes all around by the Gophers.

New Big Ten power poll
1. a Ohio State University (6-0, 2-0)
With Bama's loss last night to South Carolina the top spot should belong to aOSU...who so happen to be headed to Camp Randall next week. Rumor has it that ESPN is considering sending Gameday there. It's either that or the suddenly less lustrous Nebraska-Texas matchup. I'm hoping for a repeat of October 11, 2003 where Wisconsin beat OSU (who had the longest winning streak in the nation) 17-10 in a drizzly, energy-filled night game. It's the best football game I've ever attended and it would be tough to top. Hopefully the Wisconsin fans can bring out the same sort of energy for this game, and St. Jean and the Wisconsin linebackers can keep Terrelle Pryor between the tackles.

2a. Iowa (4-1, 1-0)
2b. Michigan State (6-0, 2-0)
Michigan State continues to look impressive, demolishing Denard Robinson in the Big House. As I said last week, they're pretty much what I was expecting Wisconsin to be. I don't think they go undefeated in Big Ten play (their defense still concerns me a bit) but the chance that MSU and aOSU both go undefeated is definitely in play. However, much like a typical Wisconsin team that's 2-0 at this point and riding high I expect them to lose one or two games for simple underpreparedness to a team like NW or Illinois. The last big game they have on their schedule is Iowa at home.

4. Wisconsin (5-1, 1-1)
They're still good enough to go 7-1 in the Big 10 (though it's unlikely with OSU and @Iowa still on the schedule). Clay hasn't been quite as good as his preseason hype but White has more than picked up the slack. The big problem is the defense. Even with Borland out on paper it should be pretty good. Watt and Nzegwu are great pass rushers off the end, and St. Jean and Mike Taylor are both above average linebackers. Valai leads the defensive backfield that doesn't have any outright holes. But the defense just keeps getting burned too often, especially on third downs.

5. Illinois (3-2, 1-1)
Maybe it's a bit of an overreaction to their win yesterday at PSU, and they do still have Ron Zook on the sidelines, but they've looked pretty good for the past 2 weeks. They almost upset aOSU, and then delivered an absolute beatdown to Penn State in their own backyard. They beat them by 20 points and it could have been even more if it weren't for three fumbles on special teams. They've probably peaked as far as the B10 season goes but they're not the pushover we assumed them to be.

6. Denard Robinson (5-1, 1-1)
Still all Robinson, nothing else. Still a work in progress.

7. Penn State (3-3, 0-2)
They just look terrible. They only managed three first downs in the first half, and were given 2 easy touchdown opportunities on PR fumbles by Illinois where they had to settle for field goals. Much as Iowa did, Illinois shut down Royster and made Bolden and the defense beat them, and they just couldn't do it. PSU's defense has had its share of injury problems, and when that's the strength of your team, you're due for a big fall

8. Northwestern (5-1, 1-1)
9. Indiana (3-2, 0-2)
10. Purdue (3-2, 1-0)
1100. Minnesota (1-5, 0-2)

Big Ten Power Poll: Week 2

1: Iowa (3-1, 1-0)
2: a Ohio State University (5-0, 1-0)

I have a feeling that aOSU's game against Illinois was a harbinger of things to come, much as the San Jose State and Arizona State games were for Wisconsin. What will happen when Pryor has to face a team that can contain him? He only passed for 76 yards last week. I won't be a believer until he wins a tough game on the road, and the credit is obviously more towards Pryor than to their impressively good defense. It's too bad that he plays for aOSU, if only because we never get the chance to see if aOSU's defense would completely render him ineffective (as I suspect). They play PSU at home, at UW, and especially at Iowa, and his performance will make or break the team in those games. Meanwhile Iowa, and especially Iowa's defense, completely dominated Penn State at Kinnick.

3: Michigan State (5-0, 1-0)
They were very impressive in their win over Wisconsin. They're pretty much the team that many of us (well, me) were hoping Wisconsin can be. They can run the ball all over the field with their 3-headed running game, their defense (especially the linebackers) swarm the field and is good but not great, and the two big differences - they actually have a special teams unit, and their passing game is higher risk-reward.

4: Wisconsin (4-1, 0-1)
See last weekend's recap for my complaints. Poor preparation, Clay banged up, Borland out, Tolzien has no one to throw to, special teams blow, etc. etc.
5: Denard Robinson (5-0, 1-0)
The Heisman is his to lose. He just needs to stay on the field after all the hits he's taking
6: Penn State (3-2, 0-1)
Freshman QB, good defense. Tough at home.
7: Illinois (2-2, 0-1)
For a while, I was getting excited about the possibility of an upset over aOSU. Then I saw Ron Zook on the sidelines.
8: Northwestern (5-0, 1-0)
It's tough to win on the road, but Minnesota blows hard.
9: Indiana (3-1, 0-1)
10: Purdue (2-2, 0-0)
eleventy billion: Minnesota (1-4, 0-1)
Just...no. Wisconsin better re-clean the Axe trophy case, since it's been collecting dust in its case for so many years.

Big Ten Power Poll: Week 0

Since Big Ten play is finally, blessedly, starting, here's a power poll for the conference.

• 1. A Ohio State University (4-0, 0-0)
  
  Despite what all the numbers say, I'm still not sold on Terelle Pryor. I'm willing to have an open mind that he *could* be good, but I'm withholding my judgment until he plays a key role in OSU winning a road game at UW and/or Iowa. The defense is the strength of this team, and it's up to Pryor to prove otherwise.
  


• 2. Wisconsin (4-0, 0-0)
  
  


• 3. Iowa (3-1, 0-0)
  
  
  
  

  It's pretty close between UW and Iowa for the 2 spot. Both teams have been burned by injuries in the preseason - Jewel Hampton (again) for the Hawkeyes, and Chris Borland for the Badgers. The Hawkeyes are further handicapped by the loss of RB Brandon Wegher to some unspecified personal issues, leaving Robinson as the lone remaining back from their good-looking preseason 3-headed backfield. Iowa's defense is still a class above Wisconsin's, but the main reasons why I rank UW ahead are Scott Tolzien and James White. I've never been that high on Tolzien, but I'm starting to wonder about my evaluation of Stanzi a bit. He throws a lot of picks, but to be fair a lot more has been asked of him in the past year and a half due to Iowa's troubles at RB. But the bigger difference makers are John Clay and James White, both of whom look like they could win B10 offensive player of the year awards if they were solo feature backs. And UW has two of them.

  
  
  

  I think Wisconsin has the edge, but since they play in Kinnick this year you just have to flip a coin to guess who wins when they match up.

  
  



• 4. Denard Robinson (4-0, 0-0)
  
  
  I didn't expect much from Michigan this year, but Denard Robinson has certainly put the school back on the map. No wonder RichRod let Mallett go. I don't really see them contending for the title but they're going to be a tough game at home.
  


• 5. Penn State (3-1, 0-0)
  
  
  Not much shame in losing to the juggernaught that is Alabama, but I'm not sold on their QB. Much like Michigan they won't have much of a shot at a BCS bowl but they'll still be a tough nut to crack at home.
  



• 6. Michigan State (4-0, 0-0)
  
  
  I can't really say much as all I know about Sparty this season is that they beat the Domers on a trick FG play in overtime. Love it. Since UW plays them next weekend I'll write up some more come preview time
  



• Who cares?: Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern
  
  
  
  
  I don't really know how to rank these guys. They'll get their wins at home against each other, and each of them will likely win a home game against the top 6, but nothing much to see here.
  



• 10. Purdue (2-2, 0-0)
  
  
  Purdue lost to the Domers and then lost to Toledo last week, but that's not as bad as...
  



• 11. Minnesota (1-3, 0-0)
  
  
  Goldy beat Middle Tennessee state, and then lost to South Dakota, put up a better game than most thought against USC, and then lost to NIU. Ouch.