(Originally posted at Another Cubs Blog. Again I apologize for the crappy formatting from the blogger editor's overzealous linebreak translator).
The last of the four Divisonal Series is the Wild Card winning Braves against the NL West champion Giants. Both teams made it into the postseason on the last day of the regular season on the heels of a Braves win over the Phillies and a Giants win over the Padres. Atlanta will have to try to win this series without face of the franchise Chipper Jones, who tore his ACL in August and may be done for good, depending on how his rehab goes. The offense is now led by catcher Brian McCann, former Cub Derrek Lee, who has been hitting the ball well, breakout second baseman Martin Prado, and ROY contender Jason Heyward. His neck-and-neck competitor, catcher Buster Posey joins Pat Burrell and Aubrey Huff as the leader of the Giants suddenly lively offense. What happens in this series will not affect the Rookie of the Year vote, as if I remember correctly those ballots are submitted at the end of the regular season. But it should be a good matchup nonetheless.
Team to team comparison
| Braves | Giants | |
| wOBA | .327 | .318 |
| SP xFIP | 3.98 | 4.15 |
| RP xFIP | 3.40 | 4.02 |
| Defense | 3 | 53 |
I had no idea the Giants were so good defensively. If you look at the average between UZR and DRS (used in the numbers above), the Giants were the best defensive team in baseball. A big part of the assignation of those numbers was Giants OF Andres Torres, who managed to collect a whopping 22.6 UZR across 3 OF positions. Strangely enough even Pat Burrell posted a big year in both UZR and DRS. Speaking of strange defensive numbers, the Braves ended the season with a -34.4 UZR....and +43 by DRS. What the hell? Most notably DRS liked the now-departed Yunel Escobar, the now-injured Chipper Jones, and Jason Heyward a lot more than UZR.
Atlanta Braves
| wOBA | CHONE | |
| C Brian McCann | .361 | .364 |
| 1b Derrek Lee | .340 | .356 |
| 2b Martin Prado | .352 | .361 |
| SS Alex Gonzalez | .292 | .315 |
| 3B Omar "All-Star" Infante | .340 | .339 |
| LF Matt Diaz | .319 | .334 |
| CF Melky Cabrera | .294 | .324 |
| RF Jason Heyward | .376 | .363 |
| OF Eric Hinske | .341 | .335 |
| OF Nate McLouth | .283 | .335 |
| 2b/3b Brooks Conrad | .356 | .314 |
I listed a few of the backups because we'll probably see most of these guys as the Braves mix and match their crappy players into 3b, LF, and CF and hope someone gets hot. If MLB had a Reverse Comeback Player of the Year Award (Hindenberg award?) McLouth would easily be the guy who wins it. Both his bat and his (overrated) glove took massive leaps backward this year, which led to lots of Melky Cabrera.
| FIP | CHONE | |
| Derek Lowe | 3.89 | 4.02 |
| Tommy Hanson | 3.31 | 3.84 |
| Tim Hudson | 4.09 | 3.94 |
| Billy Wagner | 2.10 | 2.84 |
| Kyle Farnsworth | 2.93 | 3.60 |
The Braves also have some kid named Brandon Beachy, he of 15 career MLB innings, penciled in as the game 4 starter. I'm pretty sure they'll just go back to Lowe. Former ROY candidate Jair Jurrjens is not on the NLDS roster, and the other option is fellow rookie Mike Minor.
San Francisco Giants
| wOBA | CHONE | |
| C Buster Posey | .368 | .356 |
| 1b Aubrey Huff | .388 | .356 |
| 2b Freddy Sanchez | .327 | .314 |
| SS Edgar Renteria | .314 | .312 |
| 3b Kung Fu Panda | .314 | .367 |
| LF Pat Burrell | .371 | .342 |
| CF Andres Torres | .363 | .346 |
| RF Nate Shierholtz | .288 | .329 |
| ST Mark Derosa | infinity | infinity |
Just about everyone on the Giants is hitting out of their minds. It must be a side effect of Mark DeRosa's stubble. Oddly enough Sandoval, who was the only position player worth a damn in the Giants offense since Bonds left, has had an awful year.
| FIP | CHONE | |
| Tim Lincecum | 3.15 | 3.04 |
| Matt Cain | 3.65 | 3.92 |
| Jonathan Sanchez | 4.00 | 4.14 |
| Madison Bumgarner | 3.66 | 4.67 |
| Brian Wilson | 2.19 | 2.98 |
| Jeremy Affeldt | 3.98 | 3.83 |
Prediction: Giants in 5. We should several low scoring affairs, but despite the fact that Lowe is a pretty underrated pitcher (by the forecasting systems), SF's superior pitching will win out. Atlanta's positional problems at 3b, LF, and CF would hurt them more if SF weren't essentially punting at RF, 2b, and SS and Sandoval continues to slump. I don't think the winning team scores more than 15 total runs in this series, and I look forward to the epic pitching matchup between the Giants top 3 and the Phillies top 3.
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