World Cup 2010 thoughts and predictions

I've become more of a football (the real kind) fan in the past year or so, largely thanks to Mercurial Outfielder over at ACB, who is a big Tottenham Hotspur fan. I watched maybe half the Spurs matches last year and had a great time doing so. Plus, they made the Champions League this year! Yay!

Still, even then I've been surprised by how much I've been enjoying the World Cup. I was talking about this with Adam the other day - one thing that always bothers me about the Olympics is all the nationalistic jingoism stuff. Somehow it doesn't bother me in the World cup. Maybe it's just that the gap between the traditional world powers and the rest of the world doesn't seem so small.

Even though the US doesn't necessarily dominate the Olympics (though they generally do quite well), the media here would like you to think so, and all the planning and media revolves around the US because that's what generates the most money. Not so much with the World Cup - it's much more global than the Olympics - people in the US don't care as much about football, and people around the world could generally give a crap about swimming, track and field, and ice dancing.

It could also be that the World Cup isn't rocked with the kind of scandals and political maneuvering as the Olympics (though this could just be my ignorance shining through). Football fans have respect for good teams, and most of the hate that flies around is either for the refs or for unsportsmanlike play (especially flopping).

I know it's late in the game for predictions, but here I go anyway (based on the results through round 2 of the group stage)

Mexico (1A) beats South Korea (2B)
Germany (2D) beats England (1C)
Netherlands (1E) beats Italy (2F)
Brazil (1G) beats Chile (2H) (Spain, Chile, SUI tie in group H, but goal differential causes the the swiss to lose. Chile is a good team though, and I could see them drawing Spain and knocking them out of the tournament)

United States (2C) beats Serbia (1D)
Argentina (1B) beats Uruguay (2A)
Paraguay (1F) beats Denmark (2E)
Spain (1H) beats Portugal (2G)

Quarterfinals
Mexico defeats Germany
Netherlands defeats Brazil
Argentina defeats USA
Spain defeats Paraguay

Semifinals
Mexico defeats Netherlands
Argentina defeats Spain

Finals
Argentina over Mexico

As much as I hate El Tri...I think they have a good team

Fun fact

Pudge Rodriguez has caught both Nolan Ryan and Stephen Strasburg.

Strasburg's debut and the Natinals' future

Stephen Strasburg makes his MLB debut today against the Pirates. The game is sold out (probably one of half-a-dozen sellouts they've had in their new park). Watch out for the Natinals, they're going to be pretty good in 2 years or so, especially when they get Jordan Zimmerman back from TJ surgery.

I'm originally from the DC area and this buzz is nothing but great for the team - no one I know ever gave a crap about the team except for one of my cousins. The Natinals aren't going anywhere this year, but any extra butts they get in the seats is only going to help them contend. DC is a surprisingly big (and growing!) market that the team is only beginning to tap, and if they can actually start getting people to the park they should be one of the teams in the upper half of revenue (though Angelos's MASN screwjob as a part of agreeing to the move there isn't doing them any favors). Honestly, given their advantages in market and the fact that they don't play in the AL east, they've got the potential to be in even better shape than the Rays going forward. The fact thet Jim Bowden is no longer their GM is probably helping too (dying laughing). I'm not sure I have a lot of faith in Rizzo though, since IIRC he was Bowden's right-hand man. He was left to clean up the bonus scandal/embezzlement mess that brought Bowden and Rijo down, but I'm skeptical as to whether he didn't know anything about it either.

Here's the cost-controlled core of this team (more or less in order of talent):

P Stephen Strasburg

3B Ryan Zimmerman

C/OF/?? Bryce Harper

P Jordan Zimmermann

P Drew Storen

C Derek Norris (still in A ball, but has plus-plus power)

SS Ian Desmond (should be a solid regular)

Add in rising revenues and this team will be pretty good in the near future

Rebuilding, Retooling

The prevailing wisdom over at the 176th best Cubs blog is that the Cubs should just blow things up and go through a few rebuilding years of non-contention. While I agree that the Cubs should definitely be sellers this year - they're a decent team that had their chance with a soft schedule to open the season and blew it - I don't really advocate a full-on fire sale, unloading everyone except for the young guns (Castro, Cashner, Jackson, Soto, Colvin).

The Cubs have a good farm system that should make a great core to the 2012-2013 seasons. But do the Cubs really need to put up some particularly crappy teams in the meantime? The Cubs do, after all, have one of the hugest payroll and marketing advantages in baseball. Ignoring for a second criticism of the current management's ability to do so, Ricketts did say that the team should be modeled after the Red Sox, who have lots of money and have been able to retool and integrate in new players (Pedroia, Lester, etc) on the fly. If the Cubs allocate their resources wisely, why not put out good/decent teams *and* still rebuild? One thing that the Yankees and the Red Sox have going for them is money to sign tough sign draft picks. Why not the Cubs too? I think the Cubs lose tons of money (esp with their debt service) if they put up the kind of 60-win seasons they need to draft guys on the caliber of Strasburg or Harper, but if they invest in the draft they can still get good talent. Maybe that advantage might disappear after the next CBA, though, who knows. It's something the owners are pushing for, and I could easily see draft pick slotting (since current players could give a shit about draftees) traded for the end of the lame FA compensation rules.

Here's what I think should happen (in order of easiness)

1) The Cubs should move Ted Lilly before the deadline. Of all the guys with NTCs on the team, Lilly seems like he would be most likely to waive it. Not that he has a problem with the team or anything, I just think he'd love to play for a contender. This is just idle speculation on my part.

2) The Cubs should also move Tom Gorzelanny, and put some combination of Cashner, Wells, and Jackson in the rotation for the rest of this year.

3) If Ramirez opts out, the Cubs should let him go and replace him with a short-term averageish 3b to keep the seat warm for Vitters, if he ever gets here.

4) The Cubs should trade one of Byrd, Fukudome, or Soriano and start playing Colvin every day. Of those three Byrd is easily the most movable, but I don't really see him being moved until the offseason at the earliest. With one year left Fukudome could be moved but I have a feeling he's not interested in leaving Chicago, and I don't think the Cubs could get much of anything for Soriano (again...jsut gut feeling). Fukudome should be gone by the time Brett Jackson arrives to be the everyday guy.

If the Cubs can't move Fukudome or Soriano before the deadline, they should just trade Byrd in the offseason and make Colvin the 2011 CF. If Jackson is ready, he can be the 4th OF until another spot opens up for him (2012 at the latest).


5) The Cubs should try to move Silva. I don't really see this happening until the offseason, but if they can move him earlier that would be great.


6) The Cubs should try to get whatever they can for Ryan Theriot. There's little doubt that he's going to be non-tendered this offseason, so they might as well get rid of him.

7) The Cubs should try to move Silva. I don't really see this happening until the offseason if at all, but if they can move him earlier that would be great.

8) The Cubs should try to sign Derrek Lee to a 1-year extension. Who's going to replace him next year? Hoffpauir? FWIW I don't see the Cubs moving Soriano or Ramirez (if he doesn't opt out) to 1b. Might as well spend it on a guy who's a good clubhouse presence and likes Chicago. He should be one of the top FA on the market so it might be a tough sign. But if anyone on the team would give the team a discount, it would be Lee.

8) The Cubs should pony up and sign Prince Fielder when he becomes a FA before the 2012 season. It's tough to count on this though, because there's a very good chance that the Brewers move him before then and he signs an extension with his new team. I'm not sure if he signs it though, or if the Cubs should sign him to what he will likely demand. Given what he witnessed in his childhood, he wants to be paid sooner and more rather than later, and I don't blame him for it.

9) The Cubs should try to move Zambrano. I think he might be tougher to move than Soriano at this point, given all the things the Cubs have done to tarnish his value. That bullpen move was the dumbest thing this organization has done since the college of coaches. The only things I can think of are maybe letting Maddux and Palmiero go.

I guess that turned into a bit more of a 'fire sale' than I thought, but I think with the right moves the Cubs can at least be competitive enough to fill Wrigley. I don't think the Cubs will get much salary relief for moving Z and Soriano, if they can even do it so why not just keep them around. I certainly love watching Z pitch. But I don't think *all* of these moves happen, and obviously some of the young players won't pan out (I'm especially looking at Vitters here). But the Cubs have the resources to fill those holes from outside the organization if needed, especially by 2012.

In summary, I'd like the Cubs to plan to hang on to (at least for next year)
Soto
Lee
Fontenot
Castro
Soriano?
Fukudome?
Colvin
Demp
Z
Wells
Jackson
Cashner
Marmol
B Jackson
Vitters
H-J Lee

Series Preview: Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles (25-19) at Starlin Castro (21-24)

I don't know why, but for some reason I've always disliked the Dodgers. They've just always seemed kind of overrated to me in general. And boring. Anyway, depending on how you feel the Cubs will either keep their recent mini-tear going against the Dodgers, confirming their excellent BsR record, or they will collapse like the shitty team they are and it will trigger a fire sale. I'd be kind of happy with both. *shrug*. This part of the season just came earlier this year. At least we'll get to see Kershaw and the rejuvenated Billingsley in this series, and miss Cub kryptonite Hiroki Kuroda. This godforsaken heat wave should make this an exciting series.

LAD position players (wOBA, ZiPS RoS wOBA, CHONE defense projection)

• C Russel Martin, RHB (.330, .341, 0.0)


• 1b James Loney, LHB (.338, .352, 0.0)


• 2b Blake DeWitt, LHB (.271, .320, 0.9)


• ss Rafael Furcal, BHB (.369, .332, 2.7)
  


• 3b Casey Blake, RHB (.354, .330, 5.2)


• lf Manny Ramirez, RHB (.396, .411, -6.1)


• cf Matt Kemp, RHB (.356, .374, 1.0)


• rf Xavier Paul, LHB (.386, .308, -4.4)

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, ZiPS RoS FIP)

• Clayton Kershaw, LHP (3.56, 4.21, 3.38)


• Chad Billingsley, RHP (3.51, 4.34, 3.41)


• Hiroki Kuroda, RHP (3.49, 3.55, 3.60)


• John Ely, RHP (1.83, 3.25, -)


• Ramon Ortiz, Holy shit, he's still pitching? (5.49, 4.92, 4.46)


• Jonathon Broxton, Holy shit (0.34, 1.43, 1.98)


• LAD Bullpen (4.03, 4.45)

2 things: The Cubs might be hitting the Dodgers at the right time, given their injury woes (Furcal, Ethier, Padilla). Too bad they won't get the chance to take some batting practice off Ramon Ortiz. The other thing that surprised me was how mediocre their total bullpen numbers were despite Broxton's absolutely obscene numbers this year.

Injuries

Furcal is set to be activated from the DL tomorrow, but I would be surprised if he played in all three games. He was supposed to be activated ~2 weeks ago but his date had to be pushed back, which is never a great sign. Ethier broke one of his fingers a week or so ago and will miss this series. Vincente Padilla is on the DL with nerve irritation in his elbow (never a good sign) and is expected to return sometime in June. Reliever Cory Wade (i.e. Scott Proctor 2.0) is on the 60-day DL following shoulder surgery in spring training. And the mighty Brad Ausmus is also on the 60-day following surgery to remove 15,682 catching innings from his back.

As for the Cubs, Caridad is on the DL with an elbow injury. Ramirez is expected to sit a few games to allow his bruised thumb to heal and work on his timing with Jaramillo. Gorz's x-rays were negative on the hand that was struck by a line drive last week, but the off-day today means it's not a big deal - they'll probably just move everyone up a day before they decide where to slot in Z.

Players to watch

Starlin Castro owns this spot until any of Andrew Cashner, Jay Jackson, Brett Jackson, or Josh Vitters get a call-up. For the Dodgers, it's Broxton. He's putting up cartoon numbers, and the projections agree that they're no joke. Wasn't he rumored to be part of one of the many Rich Hill deals floating around a few years ago?

Pitching Matchups

Tuesday Clayton Kershaw, LHP (3.56, 4.21, 3.38) vs Ryan Dempster, RHP (4.08, 3.88, 3.78), 7:05 PM CT

Kershaw and Billingsley are both good pitchers, but as you can see they have had a bit of luck this year on HRs. Kershaw has only had one horrendous outing all season - he was touched up for 7 runs in only 1.1 innings by the Brewers at the beginning of May. He's posting an ungodly 10+ K/9, but his control (never his strong suit) has been especially terrible this season, as he has walked 5.26 batters per 9 innings, though it's been a bit more under control in his last few starts. All those walks and the inevitable HR regression (he's a slight FB pitcher) is not a good combination. Speaking of regression, Demp has pitched well this year but has posted a .252 BABIP. His numbers are due for a rise as well.

Wednesday Chad Billingsley, RHP (3.51, 4.34, 3.41) vs Tom Gorzelanny, LHP (2.78, 3.57, 3.89), 7:05 PM CT

I guess you should ignore what I said above about moving everyone up, since Gorz is penciled in as the Wed starter on Cubs.com. That injury was on his pitching hand so hopefully it doesn't mess with his stuff. *insert yet more praise for the theft of Gorz from PIT for two guys who had torn labrums this year*. Billingsley's numbers look a lot better than Kershaw's - he still strikes out a ton of guys but has much 'better' (relatively speaking) control. He's also more of a groundball guy so he's not quite as burned by the HR ball either, though he has had some luck there as well.

Thursday John Ely, RHP (1.83, 3.25, -) vs Ted Lilly, LHP (4.53, 4.83, 4.04), 1:20 PM CT

At least Lilly is pitching on the coolest day of the series. Still though, it could be hot, humid, and raining baseballs on Waveland Ave. At least his control seems to have improved. Ely came out of nowhere (he doesn't even have a projection) and has pitched like Lou Pineilla's wet dream in his MLB debut - it took him 90 batters to issue his first career walk. He was a 2007 draftee by the White Sox out of college, and was one of their top prospects when he came to the Dodgers in the Juan Pierre trade. That was some great work by Colletti.

Series Preview: Starlin Castro (19-23) at Elvis Andrus (23-18)

The Cubs head to Texas to face the Rangers, who were generally considered to be the best team in the AL west, and have lived up to their preseason projections so far. Here's their lineup and pitching staff

Hitters (wOBA, ZiPS RoS wOBA, CHONE UZR projection)

• C Matt Treanor, RHB (.251, .279, -1.3)
  


• 1B Justin Smoak, BHB (.291, -, -)
  


• 2B Ian Kinsler, RHB (.385, .377, 3.7)
  


• SS Elvis Andrus, RHB (.366, .338, 0)
  


• 3B Michael Young, RHB (.351, .354, 0)
  


• LF Josh Hamilton, LHB (.373, .368, 0.8)
  


• CF Julio Borbon, LHB (.240, .310, 13.3)
  


• RF Nelson Cruz, RHB (.445, .383, 4.5)
  

Pitchers (FIP, xFIP, ZiPS RoS FIP)

• Scott Feldman, RHP (4.49, 5.09, 4.77)


• Rich Harden, RHP (5.75, 5.76, 4.04)


• C.J. Wilson, LHP (3.53, 4.25, 3.69)


• Colby Lewis, RHP (3.66, 3.99, 4.10)


• Derek Holland, LHP (4.42, 3.93, 4.90)


• Neftali Feliz, holy shit (2.86, 3.50, 3.99)


• Darren Oliver, LHP (2.90, 2.44, 3.53)


• Frank Francisco, RHP (3.94, 4.25, 3.77)

It seems strange that Traenor is their catcher, given the shitton of talent I seemed to remember at the catcher position there. Maybe the mlb.com depth chart is off its rocker. Aside from their erstwhile ace (Feldman), the Rangers have a damned good pitching staff. Just look at all that young talent. This is what the 2013 Cubs should look like before Hendry and Ricketts fuck it up by trading their young talent for the Joe Blantons of the world.

Injuries

Caridad was moved back to the DL (sucking), and Gorz is not expected to make a trip after taking a liner off his hand. He might miss a start, but the Cubs should be able to skip his turn in the rotation with the off-day on Monday. The Rangers have a bunch of guys on the DL whose names I don't recognize, so I figure they're not very important (dying laughing) ST can correct me tomorrow if I'm wrong.

Players to watch

The easy choice is Castro and Andrus, two young and talented SS who broke into the big leagues at a very young age. They've both got great careers ahead of them.

Pitching Probables

Friday Ted Lilly, LHP (4.77, 4.70, 4.03) vs Colby Lewis, RHP (3.66, 3.99, 4.10), 7:05 PM CT

Several of the projection systems had a tough time with Lewis, as he had a shitty early career from 2002-2007, never posting a FIP below 5. He went over to Japan for the next two seasons and pitched out of his mind before returning to the team he started with. So far, his 2010 has looked a lot closer to his Japan years than his earlier MLB ones. The biggest difference is his strikeout rate, which hovered near the mid 6's before Japan but have been over 9 K/9 so far this season. He still walks a fair amount of batters though (3.68 BB/9 this year). Lilly has unsuprisingly been burned by the It could be an ugly game with Lilly pitching at the Launching Pad in Arlington, but hopefully it won't be too warm tomorrow night. Hopefully he strings together a few good starts and the Cubs move him for some more prospects.

Saturday Randy Wells, RHP (2.97, 3.47, 4.08) vs Derek Holland, LHP (4.42, 3.93, 4.90), 7:05 PM CT

Looking at those numbers for Wells really makes me shake my head at the bullpen talk. However, I'd probably keep him on my list of guys the Cubs should hang on to in the event of a fire sale. This is only his second season in the bigs (I don't think his 5.1 innings in 2008 count) so he should still be around in 2012 and 2013. If you look at Holland's strikeouts and walks, his numbers look great, but not surprisingly, given his home ballpark, he's had big problems with HRs. Here's hoping the right-leaning lineup pounds him.

Sunday Fail Whale, RHP (4.21, 4.12, 4.37) vs C.J. Wilson, LHP (3.53, 4.25, 3.69)

I'm not exactly sure what to make of C.J. Wilson's projections, as he was a reliever for pretty much all of his mlb career until this season, and that 3.69 FIP is still largely projecting him as one. He had an insane season last year, posting a 10.26 K/9 in 73.2 innings. He's pretty wild too, though not quite Marmol-esque. So far he's managed to keep things relatively under control as a starter. Silva had yet another decent start in his last outing, scattering 6 hits and giving up 2 runs, and most importantly inducing 11 grounders to only 7 liners/flyballs. It could get ugly to see the Rangers teeing off in him in that park though.

Mini Series Preview: Colorado Rockies (19-18) at Starlin Castro (16-22)

This is only a 2-game series so I'll make this preview brief. Here are the Cubs and Rockies team numbers, with their NL rank in parentheses

Stat	Rockies	Cubs
wOBA	.337 (6th)	.341 (4th)
UZR	-3.3 (11th)	-0.6 (8th)
Starter FIP	4.05 (8th)	3.73 (4th)
Starter xFIP	4.17 (8th)	3.81 (4th)
Relief FIP	3.50 (3rd)	4.23 (12th)
Relief xFIP	4.42 (14th)	4.34 (11th)

Wow - I don't think I've ever seen as big of a FIP-xFIP split as the Rockies bullpen. They've been incredibly lucky with the HR ball, even more so considering where they play half their games. They've had decent luck on balls in play too, with a .283 BABIP in that cavern of a ballpark (contrast with the Cubs' pen's .335 BABIP)

Pitching matchups

Monday: Aaron Cook, RHP (4.58, 4.87, 4.37) vs Randy Wells, RHP (3.02, 3.66, 4.18), 7:05 PM CT
Cook is a groundball machine, guys who FIP tends to undervalue. He's pitched incredibly poorly this season, and from the looks of it a big part of it is his non-sinker fastball. It's tough to tell from Fangraphs' pitch value chart, since they combine all fastballs into one category, but he's seen a 10 to 15 run per 100 pitches drop in effectiveness. His secondary pitches have never been special either. He's still getting plenty of GB so it's probably his 4-seamer. Wells has done a great job at keeping up his stellar K rate, posting a full 2 K/9 higher than his breakout year last season, while walking even less batters and allowing fewer HRs. His bloated 4.57 ERA is pretty much entirely a factor of his .348 BABIP. I'm a broken record on this, but great work by Wells and Rothschild for avoiding the sophomore slump so far.

Tuesday: Jhoulys Chacin, RHP (3.54, 3.60, 4.65) vs Fail Whale, RHP (4.18, 4.26, 4.35), 7:05 pm CT
Who is this Chacin guy? I was never high on the Rockies rotation except for, of course, Ubaldo Jimenez. I saw the guy pitch in person last year and even from the upper deck I could tell how electric his stuff is. It's too bad the Cubs aren't facing him in this series, because I'd love to see it. I was surprised to see that he threw a no-hitter though. His stuff is as electric as Z's once was (with even MORE velocity) but he has an even bigger tendency to throw too many pitches early in the game. But I digress - I'm supposed to be writing about Chacin (dying laughing). He filled in for Jorge De La Rosa after he went down with a hand injury a few weeks ago and has pitched quite well despite the lousy projection. He gets a decent number of strikeouts and groundballs (a good fit for Coors) and has good projectability - he should be a #3 starter at worst going forward. Maybe not this year though. Silva, meanwhile, is on a roll, and is 4-0 despite throwing three straight starts that are much mroe typical of what we should expect from him - a total line of 16.1 IP, 25 hits, 11 runs, 11 strikeouts, 6 walks (more than I expected), 28:20 GB/FB ratio.