A little perspective: the 2008 Cubs vs the 2003 Cubs

This postseason sucked hard. But, was it worse than 2003? Let's compare the two seasons.

In 2003, we did not have a great team. Sosa was our only all-star quality bat (though our pickup of Aramis Ramirez was HUGE). The team was built around pitching, specifically Zambrano, Wood, and a splendidly awesome season by Mark Prior. Borowski somehow put a good year together at the end of what was a middling bullpen, at best. The team caught fire in September sneaking in with a 88-74 record, and managed to tough it out against the Braves. We all know what happened in the NLCS though.

On the other hand, the 2008 Cubs were clearly the best team in the National League. We scored the most runs in the NL and gave up the second fewest, played great defense, and arguably had 4 aces (when Lilly finally got it together) for the stretch run. Zambrano finally pitched a no-hitter, we saw Soto take over the black hole that had been the catcher position, and the Cubs rolled through the NL. It wasn't just the crappy teams either - with the exception of a series again Cincinatti we played teams with winning records all through September, compiling a record of 11-10 against them (some of which occured after we clinched, and were resting players). Our final record was 97-64, and we came into the playoffs ready to go. But we all know what happened - the team laid an egg, plain and simple.

So which was worse?

As raw as the wounds from this year's postseason have hurt, I still think 2003 was worse. We were 5 freaking outs away from the series! I find having defeat snatched from the jaws of victory much much worse than what happened this year. I was really bummed after the first game, but hopeful, but after the blowout in game 2, I had made my peace with the fact that it just wasn't our year (again). It was depressing, but it wasn't a stomach punch the way that 2003 Game 6 was. We also had almost 2 entire days to reconcile our feelings before the Dodgers finished off the Cubs, due to the off day and the very late start time of game 3.

As depressing as it was, it happened much more slowly, and I have a lot of good memories of this season - Z's no hitter, Soto's walkoff HR against the Brewers in September, being at the game (my first one at Wrigley in over 2 years) when the Cubs clinched their playoff berth, the 9-run comeback vs the Rockies...I could go on and on. This was a special team and a special season, and their poor postseason play is not going to take those memories away from me. So, unlike Al, I will not throw out the NL Central championship t-shirt that I bought at the stadium - it reminds me of the game I went to and the season as a whole, not how it ended.

The core of this team (the best in the NL) will be back next year, and have a better than decent shot of being in the exact same situation they were in this year (in the playoffs, a good team). If we keep winning titles, then, gorram it, we gotta win sometime. Just look at the Braves of the 1990s - they only won one World Series, but you gotta give yourself some chances. The best team in a short series does not win 100% of the time...just gotta hope the ball bounces our way next time (unlike those bad hops in game 2...)

Until then, GO CUBS

And that

as they say, is that.

Good luck to the Tampa Bay Rays, who I thought were the best team in the playoffs even before the Cubs were eliminated. I guess I'm rooting for the Phillies now in the NL.

Cubs postmortem content to come - I'm at least going to write a short season recap - identify players who should be recognized. I'm thinking I might also do a player-by-player season recap before looking to next year.

Now that baseball season is over, maybe blogging can take over as my only hobby...

Note to self

After wading into the sea of negativity and self-hating Cubs 'fandom' after last night's Cubs loss, I need to stay away from Cubs fansites. I will restrict myself only to Al's posts on BCB and anything by Colin on Goat Riders.

Let's go Z! I hope we get good Carlos tonight...

Department of Obviousness

Teaching first semester calculus has been pretty interesting so far. It seems that the biggest stumbling block is not the new concepts that are being introduced here, but applying all the stuff that people have already learned (i.e., algebra). Most people seem to understand the setup of problems, but can't remember how to apply the tools they know to actually solve them.

Looking ahead

Since the Cubs are now at 99.9977% to reach the playoffs, I feel safe in talking about the PLAYOFFS now. First, the NL playoff teams, as they stand today

Cubs
Phillies
Dodgers
Mets (WC)

It would be extremely shocking if the Cubs and Dodgers lose their divisions at this point. The only real contenders left for playoff spots are the Brewers, Phillies, Mets, and Astros. Sadly, I see the Astros continuiug their post-hurricane slump, so the only real contenders left are the Brewers, Phils, and Mets. here are the possiblilities

1. Brewers win WC, Phllies win NL east
2. Brewers in WC, Mets win NL east
3. Mets win WC, Phillies win NL east
4. Phillies win WC, Mets win NL east

In situations 1 and 2, the Cubs play the Dodgers, in 3 and 4, the Cubs play the WC leaders. If we look purely at Nate Silver's Secret Sauce , we can get some insight on what would be best for the Cubs.

Note: The secret sauce is a pretty simple formula - Nate determined that the 3 variables that best suggest success in the playoffs are Team Defense, Starting Pitching, and having a Shutdown Closer. Simply rank each team in these categories, add up the 3 rankings, and the lowest score has the best Secret Sauce rating. Here's how things break down for these teams

Cubs: Fielding - 1, Pitching - 3, Closer - 20, total - 24
Phils: Fielding - 14, Pitching - 20, Closer - 1, total - 35
Brew Crew: Fielding - 10, Pitching - 17, Closer - 9, total - 36
Mets: Fielding - 8, Pitching - 14, Closer - 22, Total - 44
Dodgers: Fielding - 17, Pitching - 11, Closer - 16, total - 44

Thus, clearly the Cubs should be rooting for the Phillies to win the division, as we would get the Dodgers or Mets in the first round (even better would be the mets, since that calculation was made using Wagner's numbers, and their BP is even more in shambles now). A 1-game playoff for the Brewers and Mets (as mentioned in an earlier post) would be especially choice, as it would weaken both of them heading in to the playoffs. My personal feeling though is that I would rather play the Dodgers - Manny is their only star offensive player, and none of their starters scare me. The Mets at least have Santana and some legitimate hitters (Wright, Beltran, Reyes, Delgado) that we would have to worry about, flammabile bullpen notwithstanding. They would throw Santana at us twice in a 5 game series, which would be tough to beat...though we have beaten the Brewers on both of Sabathia's starts...(power lefties...)


On a personal note, I'm hoping that the Cubs split their remaning games with the Brewers (losing tonight would be fine since it's Sheets v Marquis, our most average pitcher). That way, we don't clinch on Thursday, and could clinch on Saturday instead vs. the Cardinals. I only say this because I will BE at that game (thanks to my awesome in-laws). That would be freaking awesome. What would be doubly awesome would be if Holy Shit Carlos Zambrano gets pushed back a day, due to his high pitch count in the no-hitter and need to cruise into the playoffs, and starts that game, because we love us some Carlos. Lilly is great too though...just glad that we won't get Marquis. I have a tendency to get 5th/spot starters at Cubs games that I go to for some reason so it will be nice to break the trend.

I'm curious how our playoff rotation will shake down. We probably won't have to go to a 3 man rotation, because who do you leave out of Zambrano, Harden, Dempster, Lilly? I could *maybe* see bouncing Lilly, depending on how well a team hits lefties. He should be great against the Dodgers though, if he can pitch in their stadium. My feeling is that we will see Z, Demp, Harden, Lilly, but I have no idea how it will break down. What a rotation!

Anyway, Go Cubs Go! (and Go Phillies Go!)

Quote of the day

From ShysterBall:

At this point I am sort of hoping that Philly pulls away and that New York has to battle it out with Milwaukee for the wild card in a one-game playoff. Scientists would have to invent new equipment in order to calculate the levels of stress and anxiety such a game would would inspire among its participants.

Note: Insert relevant Physics joke about matter at high pressure, etc etc

Everything's coming up Milhouse! (Cubs edition)

What a day of baseball for the Chicago Cubs.

1, Hurricane Ike moves this series vs. the Astros to Wrigley Field North.

2. The Phillies sweep a doubleheader vs the Brewers

3. Carlos Zambrano, coming off a shoulder injury that caused him to miss 2 weeks, throws a no-hitter against the Astros.

I would say there are no words, but I just wrote some.

As an aside - the no-hitter is great, but I feel AWFUL for the Astros. Their money-grabbing owner combined with MLB's incompetence trapped them in Houston to ride out the storm, when some actual planning could have moved this game to a more neutral site for them. They leave today, while the city is still in shambles, fly to what amounts to a road game for them, and get no-hit.

By the way - I say Go Brewers AND Go Phillies. If the Phils win the NL east and the Brewers take the WC then the Cubs play the NL west winner (i.e., the Dodgers). Not that the Dodgers aren't a bad team, but I would rather play them than a possible Phillies/Mets WC.