Packers LB Nick Barnett out for the season with broken wrist

Well, shit.

Playoff predictions

Divisional Series

Phillies over Reds in 4
Giants over Braves in 5
Rays over Rangers in 5
Yankees over Twins in 5

Championship Series
Phillies over Giants in 5
Yankees over Rays in 7

World Series
Yankees over Phillies in 7

NLDS: Reds at Phillies

(Originally posted at ACB. Too lazy to fix the stupid auto-returns in the editor, sorry)

This series will start at roughly 4pm CT today in Philly. First, the head-to-head comparisons:

	Reds	Phillies
wOBA	.339	.328
SP xFIP	4.35	3.82
RP xFIP	4.18	4.12
Defense	42	3

Both these teams play in hitter friendly parks, which makes the Phillies SP numbers that much more impessive.

Cincinnati Reds

I laughed when the cellar-dwelling Reds made a seemingly meaningless trade for Scott Rolen last year. I laughed again when many of the projection systems picked them to do well this year, maybe even win the central. As it turned out those were pretty shrewd moves. The biggest difference between my perception of the team and their performance was in defense. I had been too imprinted with years of watching Adam Dunn stumbling around out there to believe that they improved. I still don't know that I buy Jay Bruce as a quality RF though. Again, it's probably some sort of subconscious Dunn comparison. They also picked up Jim Edmonds as a backup OF, but he was left off the NLDS roster.

	wOBA	CHONE
C Ramon Hernandez	.350	.326
1b Joey Votto	.439	.402
2b Brandon Phillips	.332	.338
SS Paul Janish	.315	.298
3b Scott Rolen	.367	.352
LF Johnny Gomes	.330	.341
CF Drew Stubbs	.345	.311
RF Jay Bruce	.363	.362

As you can see above the Reds are quite good defensively. Rolen, Phillips, and Bruce are regarded as above-average glove men, and Janish was the leader among shortstops in Tango's fan scouting reports so it's not surprising to see the Reds at +4 wins due to defense.

	FIP	CHONE
Edinson Volquez	4.00	4.27
Bronson Arroyo	4.61	4.89
Johnny Cueto	3.97	4.60
Francisco Cordero	3.92	4.10
Nick Masset	3.38	3.55
Aroldis Chapman	1.35	3.87

That pitching staff isn't all that inspiring. It looks like they're planning on starting those three in this series. The fourth pitcher on their depth chart, Travis Wood, is a rookie and while he has been effective every Phillie not named Ryan Howard absolutely destroys left-handed pitching. I'm not sure what happened with former ace Aaron Harang, who now seems to be an afterthought. They do have a great bullpen - probably the only one worth a damn in the NL Central.

Philadelphia Phillies

Heading into the season I thought that Philadelphia was easily the best team in the National League, but then they disappointed for the first half of the season. A big part of that was injuries. Here are the players that hit the DL this year for the Phightins:

• Joe Blanton 4/1-5/3


• J.C. Romero 3/26-4/29


• Brad Lidge 3/26-4/30, 5/10-5/31


• Jimmy Rollins 4/12-5/17, 5/22-6/22


• J.A. Happ 4/16-7/06


• Ryan Madson 4/29-7/08


• Brian Schneider 5/9-5/24


• Antonio Bastardo 6/17-7/15


• Carlos Ruiz 6/19-7/10


• Chase Utley 6/29-8/17


• Placido Polanco 6/26-7/17


• Ryan Howard 8/2-8/21


• Shane Victorino 7/21-8/12

That almost reminds me of the 2009 Cubs, except the Phillies were lucky enough that Blanton was the only hurt starter, and even then he's not all that crucial to their success. All their primary position players except Werth and Ibanez were hurt, and even then Ibanez's bat pretty much disappeared all year.

	wOBA	CHONE
C Carlos Ruiz	.366	.330
1b Ryan Howard	.367	.366
2b Chase Fucking Utley	.373	.384
SS Jimmy Rollins	.317	.331
3b Placido Polanco	.323	.335
LF Raul Ibanez	.341	.351
CF Shane Victorino	.339	.340
RF Jayson Werth	.397	.375

Lots of disappointing years here. Ruiz is the only guy who's really playing out of his mind.

	FIP	CHONE
Roy Halladay	3.01	3.03
Roy Oswalt	3.13	3.77
Cole Hamels	3.67	3.83
Brad Lidge	3.87	4.09
Ryan Madson	2.61	3.11

The Phillies have a BIG edge in pitching, which is one of the reasons why they're so favored in this series.

Prediction: Phillies in 4. The Reds pitching staff is good enough to rack up wins against the likes of the NL central, but a (finally healthy) offense like the Phillies should be able to break through.

Big Ten Power Poll: Week 2

1: Iowa (3-1, 1-0)
2: a Ohio State University (5-0, 1-0)

I have a feeling that aOSU's game against Illinois was a harbinger of things to come, much as the San Jose State and Arizona State games were for Wisconsin. What will happen when Pryor has to face a team that can contain him? He only passed for 76 yards last week. I won't be a believer until he wins a tough game on the road, and the credit is obviously more towards Pryor than to their impressively good defense. It's too bad that he plays for aOSU, if only because we never get the chance to see if aOSU's defense would completely render him ineffective (as I suspect). They play PSU at home, at UW, and especially at Iowa, and his performance will make or break the team in those games. Meanwhile Iowa, and especially Iowa's defense, completely dominated Penn State at Kinnick.

3: Michigan State (5-0, 1-0)
They were very impressive in their win over Wisconsin. They're pretty much the team that many of us (well, me) were hoping Wisconsin can be. They can run the ball all over the field with their 3-headed running game, their defense (especially the linebackers) swarm the field and is good but not great, and the two big differences - they actually have a special teams unit, and their passing game is higher risk-reward.

4: Wisconsin (4-1, 0-1)
See last weekend's recap for my complaints. Poor preparation, Clay banged up, Borland out, Tolzien has no one to throw to, special teams blow, etc. etc.
5: Denard Robinson (5-0, 1-0)
The Heisman is his to lose. He just needs to stay on the field after all the hits he's taking
6: Penn State (3-2, 0-1)
Freshman QB, good defense. Tough at home.
7: Illinois (2-2, 0-1)
For a while, I was getting excited about the possibility of an upset over aOSU. Then I saw Ron Zook on the sidelines.
8: Northwestern (5-0, 1-0)
It's tough to win on the road, but Minnesota blows hard.
9: Indiana (3-1, 0-1)
10: Purdue (2-2, 0-0)
eleventy billion: Minnesota (1-4, 0-1)
Just...no. Wisconsin better re-clean the Axe trophy case, since it's been collecting dust in its case for so many years.

Green Bay 28 - 26 Detroit: More mistakes

The Packers won this game but they sure seemed lucky to do so. Detroit kicked four field goals in the second half, several of which could easily have been touchdowns. Shaun Freaking Hill just tore through the Packers secondary, which also found itself without the services of SS Morgan Burnett (who is currently filling in for the injured Atari Bigby), further depleting the secondary. The Packers front 7 is still getting plenty of pressure on opposing QBs but Charles Woodson can't cover the entire field by himself, no matter what the t-shirts say. This is especially noticeable in the Lions third down numbers - they converted 10 of 17 third downs in the game and seemed to be able to move the ball at will through the air. It's especially worrying considering the string of decent to good teams the Packers play in the next 4 weeks: @WAS, MIA, MIN, @NYJ

Rodgers and the offense looked great in the first three series but couldn't get anything going after that. Rodgers made two uncharacteristically poor throws for his two picks.

Luckily the Packers penalty virus seemed to transfer to the Lions this week, who were flagged thirteen times to the Packers three. Still, special teams continue to hamstring the Packers. This time the goat was Packers return man Jordy Nelson, who fumbled twice in the second half leading to Lions field goals. Nelson isn't a great returner, but paradoxically enough he seems like a guy who is good at reeling off, say, 20 yard returns but is not someone you expect to take it to the house.

Game ball: Charles Woodson, trying to do it all in the secondary with 11 tackles, 3 pass deflections, and a pick-6.

Other games:
I'm even more upset about Monday night's result after watching that awful, awful, AWFUL Bears performance last night. Cutler was sacked 11 times in the first half and was knocked out with a concussion, and backup Todd Collins was knocked out after 11 more attempts. The Packers had that kind of penetration too but Cutler was able to wriggle out of it. Wonder how much the home crowd + monday night adrenaline helped them. I'm licking my chops for the rematch at Lambeau.

Wisconsin 24 - 34 Michigan State: What we learned this week

1. Winning on the road in the Big 10 is hard. aOSU struggled to put away Illinois (and was helped by some shady refereeing), NW had a slugfest with lowly Minnesota in Minneapolis, and Michigan and Indiana both forgot to bring their defenses to Bloomington. I would be shocked if PSU is in the game very long at Iowa either.


2. James White is pretty good. Maybe even better than Clay now that he's banged up.


3. Nick Toon is an average receiver with the prestige of his family name. He's not a difference maker.


4. Most importantly, Bret Bielema has to go. They're not going to fire him mid-season, but for a long time this team just simply has been poorly prepared for its opponents. Michigan State's coach wasn't even there today, and special teams (which Bielema has been involved in for years) has been awful for a long time.

Preview: #11 Badgers (4-0, 0-0) at #24 Sparty (4-0,0-0), 2:30 PM CT (*UPDATED*)

Update: MSU coach Mark Dantonio was readmitted to the hospital today with a blood clot, probably a complication from his surgery after the Notre Dame game. Not sure how this will affect MSU's approach today. I wish Dantonio all the best and a speedy recovery.

Finally, the real college football season begins. A strong but still-flawed Badger team heads to East Lansing where they haven't won since 2002. My favorite MSU memory was Lee Evans's 5 TD day at Camp Randall back in (November?) 2003. My now-wife had just moved to Wisconsin and her parents were in town that weekend for a visit. We had a great time in the student section in our light sweatshirts but my VA-based in-laws were absolutely freezing despite their arctic gear. They left after Wisconsin went up by 30 points or so to find a bar to warm up in.

I don't know much about MSU so let's take a look at their results before taking a closer look at the individual matchups.

MSU Results
vs Western Michigan: W 38-14
at Florida Atlantic: W 30-17
vs Notre Dame: W 34-31 (OT)
vs Northern Colorado: W 45-7

The most notable one here is the ND game, which they won on a fake FG attempt in overtime. Ballsy call by the coaching staff and it worked perfectly. As for the rest, not much to really conclude. They won the games they should have and with a good enough margin, though the FAU game probably should have been a little higher.

FO Rankings (parens are UW ranks)
FEI: 39 (41)
S&P Offense: 24 (19)
S&P Defense: 92 (111)
S&P Team: 27 (19)

Primary offensive players

QB
--
MSU
Kirk Cousins: 61/91, 863 yds, 6 TD, 2 INT, 164.1 rating
UW
Scott Tolzien: 64/84, 851 yds, 5 TD, 2 INT, 176.2 rating

RB
--
MSU
Edwin Baker: 57 Rush, 449 yds, 7.9 yd/carry, 5 TD
Le'Veon Bell: 48 Rush, 396 yds, 8.2 yd/carry, 7 TD
UW
John Clay: 77 Rush, 501 yds, 6.5 yd/carry, 6 TD
James White: 34 rush, 269 yds, 7.9 yd/carry, 4 TD

I'm surprised to see how well MSU's rushing attack has acquitted itself. Even more impressive is that neither of those guys were at the top of the depth chart heading into the season. Overall it looks like their offense is quite underrated. Defense looks like their big problem. They gave 31 points to a mediocre Domer team at home.

Key Matchups:
MSU LT D.J. Young vs UW DE J.J. Watt
Watt is one of the best pass rushers in the Big 10, and Young has looked shaky against MSU's weak competition. It could be a long day for Cousins, and Sparty in general if he has a rough time.

MSU KR Keshawn Martin vs UW Special Teams
UW's special teams looked like absolute shit against ASU, and didn't have much to do last week against Pile of Electronics State. We'll see if any corrections have been made

Michigan State Spartans vs Michigan State Spartans
Sparty has been the most penalized team in the B10 this year, and they've averaged 78 penalty yards per game on roughly 9 penalties per game.

Prediction: A close game, but Wisconsin pulls away in the 4th quarter. UW wins 34-24

Lots of good games on the schedule in general - there's going to be a lot of channel flipping. Some quick predictions

2:30, #21 Texas vs #8 Oklahoma. The classic RRS. Ryno says Texas can win this game if they stop being cute with their offense. I think Oklahoma wins, 24-17. It will cap off a pretty awful week in general in Austin, after losing to UCLA last week and having the campus shut down by a student gunman.

7:00,#9 Standford at #4 Oregon. This should be a fun one. I'm voting for Oregon to win this barn-burner 38-31, mainly because I'm annoyed that Stanford somehow leapfrogged UW (and moved up 10 spots) after beating ND last week. What gives? I think Stanford is probably the better team but it runs contrary to how this bullshit polling system works.

7:00 #7 Florida at #1 Alabama. Florida could win this game, but Alabama has certainly staked is claim as the #1 team. If this were in the Swamp I might feel differently. AlaGoddamnBama wins 24-13.

7:00 #22 Penn State at #17 Iowa. A shaky freshman QB playing against a fired up Iowa defense at Kinnick? Yes please. Iowa wins 31-13.