Wait till next year

Oh well...what can you say? Shit happens, and you can just throw numbers out the window when it comes to the postseason. All the analysis in the world still can't fight the Law of Large Numbers. The first game was a coin flip, with the two best starters on the NL playoffs teams facing off, and in the other two games, Lilly and Hill just didn't have it. The third game was really the most winnable of all of them. Hill didn't have his good stuff, but we yanked him early enough to hand it over to our bullpen, who did an adequate job. The real problem was that Hernandez clearly had nothing left in the tank from the 2nd inning onward. Only scoring one run against him on a day that the wind was blowing out at Wrigley is just inexcusable. We just couldn't hit the ball out of the infield (4 double plays?! Christ).

There are things to be excited about though. Lou definitely had a big impact on this team, once he got a feel for everyone in May/June we really went on a roll. The rest of our division still sucks, and should only get worse next year. The only serious contender is Milwaukee, so we'll only have a 2-team race. And, we'll have just about everyone back next year. Here's who we will have

Soriano (healthy!)
Lee
Ramirez
Derosa
Jones
Ward (if the Cubs pick up his option)
Murton
Cedeno
Theriot
Fontenot
Pie
Soto
Blanco
E. Patterson

Zambrano
Lilly
Hill
Marquis (ugh...though a servicable 5th starter)
Mark Prior (the wild card for the umpteenth year in a row)
Marshall
Dempster
MARMOL
Howry
Eyre
Wuertz
Ohman
Guzman
Gallagher
Hart

We lose
Kendall (I hope - the possibility of re-signing him has dropped considerably since soto emerged down the stretch)
Floyd - Not as big a loss as you would think
Monroe
Wood (though I'm confident he will re-sign)
Trachsel (Thank God...what a retarded trade)

That's it! Just from this, if the Cubs do absolutely nothing in the offseason, we'd have a roster of

LF Soriano
RF Jones/Murton
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
2B DeRosa
C Soto
CF Pie
SS Theriot/Cedeno

B Blanco
B Ward
B Jones/Murton
B Theriot/Cedeno
B Fontenot

1 Zambrano
2 Lilly
3 Prior
4 Hill
5 Marquis

(Ranking the bullpen the way it should..)
CL MARMOL
S Howry
S Eyre
S Wuertz
S Wood
S Dempster
S Ohman/some other LOOGY

Clearly our most important needs are

1. In general, guys who can get on base. We really need someone who can take a walk in the 2-hole. Similarly, we need someone other than DeRosa who can hit behind Ramirez and Lee in the 5-hole. Cliff Floyd was not the answer.

2. An upgrade at SS. Theriot was league average at best at SS, and did not belong in the 2-hole any time after the All-Star break. He was certainly the best of all our options, though I haven't given up on Ronny Cedeno. If Cedeno can somehow emerge to the talent he showed in Iowa, this will be less of a problem. The guy has talent - maybe he just needs Lou to remind him to take a pitch every once in awhile. He make Soriano look patient

3. An upgrade in CF/RF. Jones did an adequate job once his role was finally clearly defined by the team, playing great defense and moving his hitting from atrocious to just OK. Murton is also good, but I don't think at this point he will ever be great. Like Cedeno above, we really need Pie to make the leap. They should follow Rich Hill's example - he kicked ass in the minors, looked awful in his first year, and now is a plus MLB regular. An upgrade needs to be made at one of these positions though, and Cliff Floyd is not the answer...and I don't think any of the current free agents are either.

4. An upgrade in the starting rotation. Zambrano, Lilly and Hill are all certainly good pitchers - clearly a better top 3 than anyone else in the NL (except LA and SF, who have many many offensive issues). Who knows what we will get from Prior. You could write an entire book on the Prior/Wood speculation over the past 4 years - ever since Dusty, the Cubs medical staff, and the rabid Chicago newspapers destroyed their shoulders from 2003 onwards. Even if he's just OK he could make a great addition to the team. Marquis sucks, but he would be OK as a 5th starter on a good team.

5. Another possibility is to graduate Eric Patterson and have him play 2b, while DeRosa plays mainly RF and in general is our Super-Utility player. Patterson should be ready to contribute now.

Here's some ballsy offseason ideas (thus, moves will never get done).

1. The Cubs sign Andruw Jones (though something really must have happened to him this year...sheesh). Then they make a package centered around Felix Pie (and regrettably probably Carlos Marmol) and trade for Edgar Renteria (or someone similar...hopefully not Tejada who is the other big SS on the trade market). Thus we have a new 2-hole hitter in Renteria and Jones can hit in the 5-spot.

2. The Cubs trade for Coco Crisp - I have the feeling the Sox will trade him away for pennies. Murton should be enough to get it done. Crisp would be great in the 2-hole. Then the Cubs again trade Pie and Cedeno/Theriot as part of a package for some SS or power-hitting RF or SP as Prior/Marquis insurance. Pie or Crisp could also move to RF for additional awesomeness on defense, and we could shop Jones yet again. Atlanta should be looking for a new CF...

3. Let the Kids Play! Do nothing, and let Pie, Cedeno, Patterson, ans Soto show that their minor league numbers were not flukes.

I'm depressed about these playoffs (the other team I was rooting for, the Phillies, also got swept), so I'm just rooting against the Yanks and Sawx now. Go Indians I guess. At least I actually have lots of positives going in to next year.

I feel old

Today's starting pitcher for the rockies is only 2 months older than my younger brother.

Right decision

Lou made the right decision pulling Carlos Zambrano last night. Our bullpen has been great in the second half, and Marmol has by far been our best reliever. Sometimes you just get hit.

As Lou pointed out, the reason we lost was not because he pulled Zambrano, but that the Cubs only scored one run on 4 hits. Brandon Webb was just unhittable last night.

Thanks for the memories

It's too bad you started sparring with the wrong team this year. Have fun in San Diego, I hope we enjoy the pennies we got back for you.

Soriano Injured, Pie called up

Was pretty distressing to see that Soriano was hurt, though thankfully it wasn't very serious. Pie was called up and he looked good in his debut. I was unhappy with the fact that they bumped Guzman from the roster to make room for him, but word is that he's going to be starting in AAA. He's been looking great so far this season so I hope it's just a matter of time before he becomes our fifth starter. I was really hoping they'd release Ohman, who has just been awful thus far this season.

I really hope Pie impresses and sticks around...if so the Cubs will have an excuse to break up some of their OF logjam. Since Pie is a lefty the Cubs can go ahead and trade Jacque Jones for a shortstop or some prospects. If they go ahead and release Ohman and eventually Miller I'd love to see this Lineup/Roster

CF/RF Soriano
CF/RF Pie
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
C Barrett
LF Murton/Floyd
2B DeRosa
SS Izturis

B Floyd
B Ward
B Cedeno
B Theriot
B Blanco

1 Zambrano
2 Hill
3 Lilly
4 Marquis
5 Guzman

C Dempster
B Howry
B Eyre
B Cotts
B Wuertz
B Cherry
B Wood/Miller/Marmol/Novoa

Carpenter headed for DL?

Rotoworld reports:

Chris Carpenter is going to miss his next scheduled start due to soreness and stiffness in his right elbow.

He might be spending some time on the DL. If so, this is good news for the Cubs and other NL central teams. The Cardinals were probably still the frontrunners but they walk a razor thin line to maintain that. If Carpenter misses any signifigant time they will be in big trouble considering their shaky bullpen and complete lack of an adequate replacement.

Opening Day! And AL East preview

Hooray for baseball! Glad to see the season finally starting, even though the Cubs lost today. I guess they left their bats in the southwest...I think Carlos will pitch better than he did today (he better).

Next, my AL East rundown. This is by far the easiest division to do, year by year. Once you pick between the Yankees and Red Sox, the rest of the standings just fall into place. Here it is, from bottom to top

Tampa Bay (65-97)
This team has some promise now, finally. No team, with the exception of maybe the Diamondbacks has more talent young position players with this much upside. I think they're going to surprise a LOT of people this year, but their record will still be pretty lousy. Even when the youngsters are focused, there will still be far too many slugfests for them to win. Some teams can get by with a large hitting-to-pitching ratio (see: Yankees, Mets, Cubs), but the Rays pitching talent just can't compare at all.

Baltimore (68-94)
This team, however is the anti-Devil Rays. They have lots of great pitching (and Leo Mazzone) but they will struggle mightily to score runs. And again, that's not going to cut it when the Yankees and Red Sox lineups can put up runs even against the best starters in the league. Again, you can get by on *only* pitching...but not with the pack end of their rotation. If they can find adequate replacements for Jaret Wright and the corpse that is Steve Trachel's career they could sniff at .500. On the offensive side, they do have an established star in miguel tejada, a rising star in Nick Markakis, and an overrated star in Brian Roberts. But really, who else do they have? Mora, Huff, Millar and Gibbons have no upside at all, and Patterson still is a shadow of the Patterson of the first half of 2003. Hernandez had a great year behind the plate last year, but there's a reason why they call them 'career years'. Expect lots of 2-1, 3-2, 4-2 losses from this team.

Toronto (81-81)
Toronto is the sexy pick to upset the Sox-Yanks combo at the top of the division...but we must admit that a lot of this probably stems from an unconscious desire to see those two teams thrown from the top of the standings every year. This is still a very shaky team. They have a great one-two punch in Halladay and Burnett - probably the best 2 starters on the same team in the AL. I think Burnett will stay healthy this year...Halladay will probably take his annual DL trip or two but pitch well while on the roster. The rest of the rotation just has to hope the offense and decent bullpen can keep them in the game.

On offense, again there's no one who really jumps out. Vernon Wells is being paid superstar money but isn't really a superstar. Glaus is another quality player, though streaky, and Overbay isn't really your prototypical power-hitting first baseman - how many first basemen hit second? The rest of their outfield is overrated, Riccardi should try to flip them for some decent pitching (i.e. someone in the Phillies or Dodgers logjams). Aaron Hill has some upside, but Royce Clayton is a huge hole in the lineup, in a division where having a merely average player can be considered a hole.

2. New York Yankees (83-79)
It's going to be a long year for George Steinbrenner. The Yankees will have to blow away all their opponents to have a shot at winning the divison, because their pitching is almost as uncertain as the Mets'. Pettitte is the real ace of this team, but he and Mussina are both aging and project to regress this year. Pettitte should be further hurt by the loss of Roger Clemens and his maniacal workout routines and general energy...he always seemed like a guy who fed off the energy of his teammates to me. Wang is great but is a statistical aberration. This injury to start the season could be a harbinger of more trouble this season as well, especially if Igawa/Rasner/Karstens/Pavano/Hughes start off badly, which they probably will. I think Igawa was probably one of the worst signings of the offseason, though it was overshadowed by such awful deal as the Meche, Matthews, and Pierre deals. On the other hand, Yankees can afford to gamble with fringe starters that no one has ever seen before. I definitely get the vibe that he's the kind of pitcher that will get hit HARD the second time around the league, if not the second time around the lineup.

I don't really have much to say about the offense, other than that their first base platoon will be vastly improved the fewer games that Mientkiewicz plays. Losing Sheff should hurt it a little bit, but the fact that I still penciled the Yankees in for a winning record after my discussion of their pitching problems speaks volumes about how unstoppable their offense is.

1. Boston Red Sox (92-70)
As much as I loathe Red Sox fans, damn do they have a great team this year. Their offense isn't quite as good as the Yankees, though I think Pedroia and Crisp will turn in quality league-average type seasons, as will Mike Lowell and Kevin Youkilis. Those could be considered 'holes' in a AL east lineup as I mentioned earlier...but their defense or OBP or other peripherals should really work well with the way that this team is built. I'm not a big fan of Wakefield or whoever starts in the 5th spot in the rotation, but with their quality offense and bullpen (my thoughts about the Papelbon move notwithstanding) they should be fine. I think Dice-K will be a monster this season, and may even wrest the Cy Young away from Santana.

Recap
1. Red Sox 92-72
2. Yankees 83-79
3. Blue Jays 81-81
4. Orioles 68-74
5. Rays 65-97