Currently reading, Cubs rumblings

I just started reading Cubs Nation: 162 Games, 162 Stories, 1 addiction . I have a feeling this book will be pretty engrossing and somewhat depressing. It chronicles the season of the 2004 cubs, with one article/story for each game of the season. The motivation for the book was, of course, the painful 2003 playoffs and the subsequent improvements the Cubs made in the following offseason. Peter Gammons actually predicted the cubs to win the world series in 2004, and vegas was giving great odds on them too. Then everything just fell apart down the stretch - Prior was hurt, Sosa went from team icon to being run out of town, various members of the team feuded with the broadcast guys, and the Cubs blew a big lead down the stretch to miss the playoffs.

Speaking of offseason improvements, I still think things are looking good for the Cubs. The latest rumors are that we are the front-runners for Schmidt and Lilly, and that we're looking to sign Lofton as astopgap until Pie is ready to make the leap. I think this is great news - lofton is a great fit for many reasons, and he's one of Jennie's favorite players too! I'm not so sure about Lilly. He managed a so-so ERA in the tough AL east, but he was pitching in a pitcher's park and is very much a flyball pitcher - so coming to a hitter's park with sketchy OF defense might not be a good match. I still kind of feel it to be unlikely that the Cubs sign both of the pitchers, but if they did, this would be what we were looking at (with stat predictions). It's pretty awesome, the only issue is that Murton should get more playing time.

POS	Player	BA/OBP/SLG/R/HR/RBI/SB
LF	Soriano	.295/.330/.510/112/38/97/32
CF	Lofton	.270/.355/.420/90/1/56/36
1B	Lee	.322/.402/.570/98/42/122/12
3B	Ramirez	.292/.340/.550/87/45/112/2
RF	Jones/Murton	(combined) .290/.345/.495/82/28/96/15
C	Barrett	.290/.340/.505/76/20/78/1
2B	DeRosa	.275/.338/.430/78/75/2
SS	Izturis	.255/.305/.340/60/1/48/5

B Blanco
B Murton/Jones
B Pagan
B Theriot
B Some FA Bench player

Name	IP/W/K/BB/ERA/WHIP/CG/S
Zamrano	210/21/198/97/3.24/1.28/2/0
Schmidt	197/16/165/70/3.67/1.31/3/0
Hill	175/12/180/79/3.99/1.21/1/0
Lilly	190/14/175/90/4.12/1.39/0/0
Prior	95/7/95/50/4.25/1.34/0/0
Miller	102/9/97/70/4.52/1.45/0/0
Dempster	69/4/59/40/3.87/1.41/0/32
Howry	79/5/67/14/3.20/1.16/0/12
Wood	58/2/72/45/3.61/1.31/0/0
Eyre
Wuertz
Ohman
Cotts

Damn you, Kwong

I went over to Brian's house today to play with his new Wii. It was pretty damn cool. We played a few of the Wii sports games, and then he showed me the new Zelda game. It looked pretty cool, and it got me all in the mood for older Zelda games.

I have kind of a strange relationship with Zelda games these days. I must have played Link to the Past half a hundred times...though I never managed to enter the triple zero club in that game. I loved Link's Awakening on the game boy too, though from what I read later I was one of the few who did. So as you could guess, when Ocarina of Time came out for the N64 I was beside myself with excitement. Sadly, while the game was a pretty solid game, I was really disappointed in it because I expected it to be the second coming of the game that I played obsessively as a kid. The story was kind of clumsy (I was older and more used to great stories), I hated the 3d environment gameplay, and it just wasn't well LttP! I didn't even finish the game, I just got tired of it.

2 or 3 years later I came back to it and played through it again, and realized that it was actually a pretty good game. I had a good time once it didn't have to live up to my gargantuan reputation. By then, however, FF had earned my total loyalty so I got a PS2 to stick with that franchise. Thus I barely ever saw any of the gamecube games, including the apparently fantastic wind waker. Seeing the new game really brought it all back though. I got home and immdiately downloaded a N64 emulator so I could fire up some Ocarina of Time.

Turkey Day!

We cooked a delicious thanksgiving dinner here in WI. We both agree that the turkey was the best we've ever made, let alone eaten. Kira agreed too:

Cubs sign Soriano!

The Cubs have agreed to a 8-year $136 million dollar deal with Alfonso Soriano.

When's the last time the Cubs have signed a marquee free agent? This is great news for the Cubs. Now, the only question is where he will play. Many people seem to think he'll be playing CF...but I still don't think that's a great idea, though it might be workable. A better idea would be for the Cubs to try to move Murton or Jones (hopefully Jones) and sticking Soriano in LF. The Cubs could then sign Roberts or some other veteran placeholder to mentor Felix Pie as he traditions to the major leagues in CF.

I still think the Cubs are going to make a trade for Westbrook (I'm thinking Eyre-Cedeno-AAAA pitcher as the package being dangled). Assuming that's the case, here's what the lineup looks like now.

CF Soriano
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Jones
LF Murton
C Barrett

1 Zambrano
2 Westbrook
3 Hill
4 Free Agent (Likely Lilly or Meche)
5 Miller/Prior/Marshall

Bullpen
Dempster, Howry, Cotts, Ohman, Novoa, Wuertz, Wood

Bench
Blanco
Theriot
Pagan
Pie
Bynum or (preferably) some veteran FA bench bat


CF Soriano

Cubs trade for Neal Cotts, other rumors

The Cubs just traded Aardsma for White Sox lefty Neal Cotts. This seems like a preliminary trade. I think the Cubs will either turn around and spin him again or try to move Eyre. Most of the rumors seem to be that they're going to trade Eyre, Cedeno and maybe one of their AAAA pitchers to Cleveland for Jake Westbrook or Cliff Lee. I'm hoping for Westbrook - he's a groundball machine that should translate well at Wrigley.

It also looks like the Cubs are ramping up to sign Gil Meche, who used to pitch for Pineilla in Seattle. I'm not super-wild about this deal...but I don't think the Cubs are going to go after the top-shelf pitching this offseason. Clearly Soriano and maybe JD Drew are their main targets.

There might even be a third starter targeted - Pineilla hinted that the Cubs might land three new starters this offseason. Not sure who else they might land, I haven't heard any real rumblings of interest in anyone other than Meche. Lots of people are high on Lilly, Wolf, and Padilla though.

I haven't heard any specific rumors to the case, but there has been a bunch of speculation that the Cubs might try to move Dempster, especially if Wood is healthy. Too bad we probably won't find that out until closer to spring training, if not the season itself.

Other rumors seem to suggest that the Cubs are actively shopping Barrett, which I think is a terrible idea. People are pointing to the re-signing of Henry Blanco as an indicator of this, but who in their right mind thinks Blanco should start every day? Maybe the Cubs would make a run at Bengie Molina if they traded Barrett, but they better be damned sure they can get him if that's the case.

So, this seems to be how things are trending now, assuming the Cubs get Soriano and the more likely situations occur above.

Lineup
CF Soriano
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Jones
LF Murton
C Barrett
SS Izturis

Bench
Blanco
Theriot
Pagan
Bynum?
? - maybe another OF, or a CI type like Scott Moore

1 Zambrano
2 Westbrook
3 Hill
4 Meche
5 Miller/Prior

CL Dempster (Unless Wood is healthy)
R Howry
R Wood
R Wuertz
R Novoa
L Ohman
L Cotts

DeRosa signs

Derosa just signed with the Cubs

I'm not super-wild about this signing, though I don't think it is a bad one per se. It might end up being a deal for the Cubs in the long run, with the way the market may be working out this offseason. DeRosa would be a great #2 hitter, and could maybe leadoff, though I would prefer Soriano or Roberts in that position if we get one of the two of them for CF. So this is my new expecation of our starting lineup for next season

CF Roberts/Soriano/Matthews/Pierre/Pie
2B DeRosa
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Jones
LF Murton
C Barrett
SS Izturis

B Blanco
B Theriot
B Pagan
B Moore/Cedeno
B Bynum/Cedeno

Trade Bait (for pitching)
Cedeno
Jones or Murton - if we can sign C Lee or Drew

Sigh of relief, rumors

Phew. Ramirez just re-signed with the Cubs. All the indications I had been seeing seemed to imply that he was going to bolt for the fat cash waiting for him in this weak, weak free agent market. Now that they have this settled, the Cubs can focus on what they need: pitching.

As poor as the offense was last year, on paper the current projected lineup (assuming we don't sign ANY starters) would probably be

2B Theriot
SS Izturis
1B Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Jones
C Barrett
LF Murton
CF Bynum

1 Zambrano
2 Hill
3 Miller
4 Prior (?)
5 Marshall

Clearly there are some holes here: notably in center field and in the back end of the rotation. I figure the Cubs will make plays at Soriano, Pierre, Matthews, and Dave Roberts and will hopefully and up with one of the latter three.

As far as pitching goes, I don't know if the Cubs will have a shot at the 'premier' free agent pitching. Conventional wisdom seems to be that Zito will go to the Mets, Matsutaka to the Sox (or Mets), Schmidt to the Mariners, and Moose to the Yanks. They might have a shot at Schmidt, or Zito if the Mets end up getting Matsuzaka. I think they'll end up grabbing one or two second or third tier starters. The main canditates I can think of are people like Lilly, Eaton, Wolf, Maddux, maybe Gil Meche. If they end up getting 2 FA pitchers, the Cubs will have to decide what to do when Prior gets back, as the rotation would consist of Zambrano, Hill, Miller, FA1, FA2, Prior. Maybe one of the FAs could be a swingman like Rusch was?

The other big rumor that I'm excited about is that Carlos Lee is apparently quite intereseted in playing for the Cubs. Apparently he wants to stick it to the Sox for trading him a few years back. He would be a GREAT pickup for the Cubs, and would also free up Murton as trade bait for another starting pitcher.

As far as trade bait goes, potential players the Cubs could move (in order of appeal):
Murton
Marshall
Miller
Pagan
A. Guzman
Prior


Based on this (and a little wishful thinking), I'm going to take a stab at the eventual cubs opening day roster/lineup.

CF Roberts
2B Theriot
1B D. Lee
LF C. Lee
3B Ramirez
RF Jones
C Barrett
SS Izturis

B Blanco
B Pagan
B Murton
B Cedeno
B Bynum

1 Zambrano
2 Hill
3 Wolf
4 Miller
5 Prior/Marshall/Free Agent

CL Dempster
S Howry
S Eyre
B Wood
B Ohman
B Aardsma
B Wuertz